So yesterday the ISM (Institute for supply management) had a bit of a surprise with sub 50 number indicating a contraction in manufacturing. That was the first sub 50 number since 2016. Of course one number does not make a trend.
Question: What 2 or 3 economic indicators out of dozens are most important for keeping a finger on the pulse of the economy? I think consumer confidence is a big one. Others?.....
For me, GDP and Employment Situation. The rest are "support" of these, but this is where the rubber meets the road.
I agree.
Although I think the baby boomers retiring in large numbers lessons the likelihood of UE spiking too much, and thus makes UE less important than it used to be. (not unimportant, just less so)
I like M2 as the most reliable indicator for economic growth and
I like weekly jobless claims in second place.