KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, September 6, 2019
8:30 AM ET. August U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +164K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.7%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.98)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.08)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.29%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.2%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.3)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +16K)
Private Payroll (previous +148K)
Participation Rate (previous 63.0%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 856.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 448.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 661.7K)
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Services
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Thursday after American and Chinese officials declared a tentative resumption of tariff talks. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 7760.67 confirms that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the August 26th low, July's high crossing at 8051.75 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 7580.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7886.75. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 8051.75. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7380.01. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04.
The September S&P 500 closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2946.17 as it renew the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's rally, July's high crossing at 3029.00 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 2890.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2986.00. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3029.00. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2809.83. Second support is August's low crossing at 2776.30.
The Dow gapped up and closed above the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,562.32 on Thursday marking an upside breakout of August's trading range. Today's rally was underpinned by news that American and Chinese officials declared a tentative resumption of tariff talks, viewed as a sign of progress in the yearlong trade conflict between the economic superpowers. Additional support came from a series of bullish economic reports, including data from ADP estimating the private sector added 195,000 jobs in August and a better-than-expected reading on activity in the U.S. services sector.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends today's rally, July's high crossing at 27,398.68. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 25,978.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 26,836.30. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 27,398.68. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,362.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,034.74.
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September T-bonds closed down 2-00/32's at 164-24.
September T-bonds closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-26 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 162-30 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 170-26 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 167-18. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 170-26. First support is the reaction low crossing at 162-30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 159-11.
September T-notes closed down 305-pts. At 130.210.
September T-notes closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.217 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 132.016 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 131.195. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 132.016. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.217. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128.306.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off August's low, the late-July high crossing at 60.93 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 57.76. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 58.86. First support is August's low crossing at 50.50. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99.
October heating oil closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.06 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off July's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 165.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.06. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 198.13. First support is August's low crossing at 175.15. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 165.77.
October unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 158.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off July's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 130.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 158.28. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161.59. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 144.75. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 130.42.
October Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing near 2.523 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.226 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.468. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing near 2.523. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.226. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.045.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 99.33. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.48.
The September Euro closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off August's high, weekly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.09. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 109.36. Second support ismonthly support crossing at 109.21.
The September British Pound closed higher on Thursday and is testing resistance marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2348. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2348 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted and would open the door for additional gains near-term.If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.1877 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2348. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2615. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.1965. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.1877.
The September Swiss Franc closed sharply lower on Thursday ending a two-day rebound off Tuesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0228 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 1.0064 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 1.0384. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. First support is August's low crossing at 1.0064. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 1.0024.
The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends Wednesday's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.89 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.89. Second resistance is the July 31st reaction high crossing at 76.37. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.32.
The September Japanese Yen closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0936 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's decline, August's low crossing at 0.0918 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0972. First support is today's low crossing 0.0933. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.0918.
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October gold closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1522.20 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1467.30 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1559.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1496.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1467.30.
December silver closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement of the 2016-2018 decline crossing at 19.803 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.790 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 19.750. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 decline crossing at 19.803. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 18.394. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.790.
December copper closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 264.31 are needed to open the door for a larger-degree rally off Tuesday's high. If December renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 234.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 264.31. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 248.20. Second support is weekly support crossing at 234.12.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up 1-cent at 3.59 1/2.
December corn closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.75 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.75 1/4. Second resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.56 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.
December wheat closed up 6-cents at 4.66 3/4.
December wheat closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.42 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.74. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.06 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.50 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.42 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 9 1/4-cents at 3.93 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.04. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.37 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.81. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 8-cents at 5.02.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher due to short covering on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.11 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 4.80 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.11 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.31 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.86 1/2. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.80 1/4.
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November soybeans closed down 13 3/4-cents at 8.61 3/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.88 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.88 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.96 3/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.32 1/2.
December soybean meal closed down $4.20 at 294.30.
December soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 306.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 306.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 306.70. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 293.70. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.
December soybean oil closed down 36-pts at 28.63.
December soybean oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 27.88 is the next downside target. If December extends Tuesday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 29.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 30.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79. First support is August's low crossing at 27.88. Second support is May's low crossing at crossing at 26.96.
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October hogs closed down $0.83 at $66.30.
October hogs closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 64.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 68.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.75. First support is August's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.
October cattle closed down $1.15 at 97.87.
October cattle closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 97.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 103.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 105.00. First support is today's low crossing at 97.17. Second support is weekly support crossing at 97.08.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.10 at $132.33.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.75 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.75. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. First support is August's low crossing at 127.32. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 8.76 is the next downside target.
December cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 22.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted and would open the door for additional gains near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, last-October's low crossing at 20.83 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.42 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 60.25 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target.
Thanks much tallpine!
Dorian heads out to sea tomorrow, no affect on markets.