KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, September 10, 2019
N/A 4th Quarter Manpower U.S. Employment Outlook Survey
6:00 AM ET. August NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (expected 103.5; previous 104.7)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.2%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.1%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.0%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +6.5%)
10:00 AM ET. July Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.2M)
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 558.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 242.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +3.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2367.2)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -7.0%)
8:30 AM ET. August PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous -0.1%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. August Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. July Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 422.98M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.771M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 229.586M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.396M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 133.522M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.538M)
Refinery Usage (previous 94.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.621M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.588M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the August 26th low, July's high crossing at 8051.75 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 7580.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 7895.00. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 8051.75. First support isthe 62% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7380.01. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04.
The September S&P 500 closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 3029.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2890.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2990.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3029.00. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2809.83. Second support is August's low crossing at 2776.30.
The Dow closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 27,398.68. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 25,978.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 26,900.83. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 27,398.68. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,362.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,034.74.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
September T-bonds closed down 2-03/32's at 163-07.
September T-bonds closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 162-30 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 170-26 is the next upside target.First resistance is August's high crossing at 167-18. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 170-26. First support is the reaction low crossing at 162-30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 159-23.
September T-notes closed down 215-pts. At 130.020.
September T-notes closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.240 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 132.016 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 131.195. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 132.016. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.240. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.021.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the late-July high crossing at 58.86 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 54.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 58.16. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 58.86.First support is August's low crossing at 50.50. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99.
October heating oil closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, the late-July high crossing at 198.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 185.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 193.69. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 198.13. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 177.70. Second support is August's low crossing at 175.15.
October unleaded gas closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 161.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off July's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 130.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161.08. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 171.47. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 144.75. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 130.42.
October Henry natural gas closed sharply higher on Monday as it extended the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing near 2.636 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.267 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.596. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing near 2.636. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.353. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.267.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 98.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.14.
The December Euro closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, weekly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.73. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.68. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 110.13. Second support ismonthly support crossing at 109.21.
The December British Pound closed higher on Monday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2376. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2376 confirms that a short-term low has been posted and opens the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.1965 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2376. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2652. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2008. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.1965.
The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at 1.0114 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0292 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 1.0314. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.0384. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 1.0174. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 1.0114.
The December Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's rally, the July 31st reaction high crossing at 76.37 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 31st reaction high crossing at 76.37. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.92. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 74.84. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.72.
The December Japanese Yen closed lower on Monday as it extended last-week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, August's low crossing at 0.0918 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0972. First support is today's low crossing 0.0939. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.0924.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
October gold closed lower on Monday as it extended last-Thursday's decline.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1470.70 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1559.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1496.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1470.70.
December silver closed lower on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.897 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement of the 2016-2018 decline crossing at 19.803 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 19.750. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 decline crossing at 19.803. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.897. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.827.
December copper closed slightly lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 264.51 are needed to open the door for a larger-degree rally off Tuesday's high. If December renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 234.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 264.51. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.50. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 248.20. Second support is weekly support crossing at 234.12.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down 2-cents at 3.53 1/2.
December corn closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.68 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.68 3/4. Second resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 3.52 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.
December wheat closed up 11-cents at 4.74 3/4.
December wheat closed sharply higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.71 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.94 1/4 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.42 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.81 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.94 1/4 is the next upside target. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.50 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.42 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 4 3/4-cents at 3.98.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.00 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.00 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.33 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.81. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 2 1/2-cents at 4.96 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.08 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 4.80 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.08 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.28 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.86 1/2. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.80 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed unchanged at 8.57 3/4.
November soybeans closed unchanged on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.86 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.86 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.96 3/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.32 1/2.
December soybean meal closed up $1.00 at 294.00.
December soybean meal closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.60. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 306.30. First support is today's low crossing at 292.00. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.
December soybean oil closed down 21-pt. at 28.44.
December soybean oil closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 27.88 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 29.14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 30.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79. First support is August's low crossing at 27.88. Second support is May's low crossing at crossing at 26.96.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $0.90 at $62.60.
October hogs closed lower on Monday as it extended last-Friday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's decline, August's low crossing at 59.30 is the next downside target. If October renews last-week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 68.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.45. First support is August's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.
October cattle closed down $0.68 at 94.20.
October cattle closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 83.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.05. Second resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 103.75. First support is today's low crossing at 93.40. Second support is weekly support crossing at 83.42.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.08 at $129.82.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to lower signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.51 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.51. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. First support is August's low crossing at 127.32. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed sharply higher on Monday and above the reaction high crossing at 9.85 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.32 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 8.76 is the next downside target.
December cocoa closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.62 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off July's high, last-October's low crossing at 20.83 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.35 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Monday as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 60.25 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Hot weather is bullish natural gas still!
No freeze threat the next 2 weeks but corn ratings fell unexpectedly by 3%. Beans unch. Cotton plunged by 5%.
It's early but Brazil coffee will be looking for some rain in the next month, as the rainy season approaches. No rain into Oct. will become increasingly bullish.