why no mention of South America and no bean offers last week. Why no mention anywhere on the msm's about the 10 cargos of beans China bought or the tons and tons of pork they bought. Why no mention with SA not supplying the beans guess where China goes all the way to February. Why no mention that give America real leverage in the tariff and trade area. America has a real chance to get China to begin to the picture that the days of lies, theft, and double cross by them at the trade table are over. Who would of thought. The same ones who never gave Trump a chance, that's who.
PS beans up 27 yesterday and up on the overnite and look like 915 in is play. Even a sell off to 875 is a buy here
The USDA crop report was clearly bullish beans. Look at the ending stocks dropping below.
Also, funds are short and need to cover.
Also, the price of South American beans has been almost $1 cheaper than in the US recently. China knows this and I think that part and maybe most of the reason for their offer to buy US beans as a sign of good faith is disengenous because it benefits THEM so much.
Also, the weather pattern is more conducive for a freeze later this month vs what it was up until a few days ago............an impossible pattern for a freeze.
We could come in here next week with a legit frost scare if models shifted to some of the outlier cold solutions.
As of noon est, does trader MetMike feel compelled to buy meal/beans based upon an increased 'threat' of frost?
I am long meal, rice, and dec/dec corn spread (Failed to lift short after report--URG).
Just bot Oct meal calls JIC (just in case)
Not wanting or needing "reassurance", just would appreciate your view if a weather client came to you asking opinion based upon current weather diagnostics.
My thoughts:
Meal made a new contract low Monday 9-9-19 in the 17th week of its cycle, to me signifying end of cycle. Accordingly, should be a 3-5 week rally with first daily high not coming until next week. With a close near today's high, potential for breakaway gap Sunday night.
As of noon est, does trader MetMike feel compelled to buy meal/beans based upon an increased 'threat' of frost?
No
The US model is not even completely out yet and whatever it shows, will probably be completely different on Sunday but I'll try to update you after it and the ensembles are out.
Latest US operational model is an outlier again with the Polar Vortex dropping the the S. Hudson Bay area and a big blast of cold hitting the N.Plains/Midwest later in week 2.
None of the other models have anything like that, including the US ensembles so I am very skeptical and won't believe it until other models show something similar.
Always great to read you tjc, stick around for awhile and post some more if you like.
I sent you a "softball" to try to get a discussion going on grains.
We all have different trading techniques.
MM uses his weather skills to determine the likelihood of a change in forecasts to move a market. I use daily/weekly cycles to 'try' to determine when a timeframe is ending and a new 'run' likely to start and then with %R initiate a trade. Our 'other' Mike has a graphic technique, to me a trend following system, that keeps one in a trade. (Mike, I wish you would give a little tutorial on what you look to initiate and terminate a trade using your system---I somehow want to incorporate it so as not to over trade)
On occasion, I would ask posters to proffer potential trades, with supporting argument/data/charts/viewpoint, so as to keep us all on our toes! NOTHING critical--just perhaps a "Heads Up"!!
So...any trades out there!
Jan Meal daily continuous candle chart. Bollinger Band compression with 3 drives down that tested support and reversed up. Potential breakout up out of the squeeze zone. Curious candle on Friday the 13th, a shooting star, inverted hammer, almost a doji in character. Responding to the macro smackdown that afternoon. Many commodities gave up their gains and seemingly reversed on this superstitious harvest micro full moon rarity. My take is that this Friday candle is a retest of the breakout before resolving up through the linear regression channel. Of course, all manner of speculating on hog herd disease or not, trade truce, fall frost and pod fill dance on the head of my pin brain.
Jan bean meal daily overall context dynamic. Friday the 13th harvest micro moon had amazing effect, knocking silver down 60 some cents and flipping many ag commodities into the same sort of shooting star candles that might just mean a retest of prior day impulse. As always, next week will tell if price can shimmy right back up the flagpole left standing with Friday's afternoon selloff.
good stuff hayman...thanks
By metmike - Sept. 16, 2019, 1:54 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/38779/
There's a chance the bean condition could drop a couple of points this afternoon from extremely heavy rains north, and hot/dry south.
I can't recall crop ratings mattering anymore this late in the year but the crop is far enough behind that this year could be an exception.
The bean harvest usually puts tremendous pressure on prices in late Sept/early Oct.
The late planted beans here are getting hurt bad with horrible filling conditions. It hasn't rained this month and temperatures have been well above average.
The late beans have probably lost 10-15 bu/acre.
The harvest will be behind this year and we will NOT set new lows that are lower than the Summer lows that often happen but you can see the typical affect of harvest pressure on beans in late September into the first week in October.
