if I was XI and negotiating a trade deal with Trump
Trump did not delay the next round of tariffs because he is a generous person. So: I will follow with an even bigger gesture of good will and offer to buy some beans and pork. I will make this purchase big enough to generate interest in the USA farm belt and Trump supporters. I know that Trump is in a bit of a hard spot with the oil waivers. So I offer a carrot to Trump [offer to buy pork and beans which I need]
I hope Trump comes back and wants to make a deal. Trump being Trump will want something bigger. So: I offer to buy even more pork and beans but soft pedal all other things on the table. I am gambling Trump wants to make a deal. He has an election coming and needs some ammo. I might even agree to some other things, but I know I will not honour anything that I don't feel like honouring. Time is on my side as Trump needs something he can show as being successful. So I let Trump pound his chest and tweet to his hearts content, how he won bigly. I know that will give Trump the farm vote and he will also likely be forgiven his treachery with the oil waivers. This will set Trump up to sign a deal and we will agree to a deal. This also gives us what we need most, which is food, Trump what he needs, which is a signed deal.. Win, win.
Yes: on your sweet bunny, Mr Trump.
Now time goes on and Trump sees we are not living up to our part of the complete bargain. But we are buying food from the USA. Does Trump blow the whistle??, so close to the 2020 elections or does he keep his peace as he can not admit he signed a deal that china will not honour. This might make Trump look weak to enough people, to put the election in doubt.. Maybe enough to swing the election to the Dems. Who knows. Will Trump gamble the election by blowing the whistle on our honouring or not honouring certain parts of the deal???Do we really care what Trump does. No sir, not one bit. We got a supply of food and Trump might not be around after 2020 if he is the person who goes public and brings back the trade war, before 2020.
We won't bring the trade war back. We will simply refuse to honour the parts we don't want to honour and will take our chances with Trump after 2020 with a new trade war, which we think the USA will be so tired of hearing about, they will hate Trump with even more hatred and fight any effort, of a new trade war, or we deal with a Dem who will most likely not start a new trade war. Either way, our new food supply lines are coming closer each yr and we can worry about what the USA does, some time in the future. In the mean time we have strengthened our bargaining position with the Belt Road or what ever it is called so that some day we won't even need to trade with the USA. We will trade with the other 75 % of the world population.
All we need is a bit of time to put some moving parts in place.
The USA thinks the world can not exist with out them. We will show them, that is not true. We know a lot of countries want to trade. We will trade with the willing, which already includes russia, India and assorted other eastern rim countries. The EU may get a bit tired of being poked in the eye by the USA. We might even destroy the reserve currency, given enough time.
Who knows but any delay is time we need to bring about change in the world of trade and currency
IMHO Wayne, you underestimate Trump and America. We {atleast 48% of us} went down this road after decades of dirty tricks by China. Its time to finally wrap this thing up. Not give up just for the boast of a "deal" We are going after a good deal for America...Thanks for weak spine support. We have plenty of weak spines here already, do not need more.
HI mcfarm
I applaud Trump and people like you who look at the damage the trade deficit, theft of inteluctual property etc has done to your country
Who did what etc is all water under the bridge . Today you want to change things with china, which I agree with you, and forget the past. Trump keeps on using the trade deficit as his reason for the trade war. That is the easy part to sell to the American public.
I can see a couple of possible end games to all of this
1st: China buys food from the USA until they have established food supply from other sources. China knows the USA will sell them food, as we see with this latest sale. The USA is desperate to sell and will sell food to china any day of the week. Not selling has resulted in bad things as we mostly use the Carter embargo as an example of what happens if you do not sell grain and other food products. The USA gradually becomes the supplier of last resort, and sells small amounts to the rest of the world, mean while, over time, having lost their biggest and best market.
2nd possibility. China agrees to terms on a trade deal. I think this is a rather slim hope but you never know.
If china signs an agreement and then continues to break the terms of the agreement, which we all know they will, you really have no choice but to go back to another trade war. , Will you ever get what you want, with no way to enforce, except continual trade wars. After a while that gets a bit old and the people will see no end in sight, The american people do not want a 10 yr off and on trade war with no end in sight, until the Dems at some time end the trade war..
How can you enforce the terms of an agreement, with a culture that will lie and cheat, and continue to break the terms any agreement
At some time in the future as I said before, china will ignore the USA and trade with the other 75% of the world and the USA can go pound salt.
Good thoughts but you guys are overlooking the most important item regarding this.............the 2020 election.
There are several elements to this.
One is the fact that in the absence of an agreement before the election, if a democrat is elected the tariffs go away and China continues on its merry way back to the way things were.
What's the most important agenda that Trump has?
1. Economy?
2. Immigration?
3. Climate change?
4. China?
It's not on that list but is much more important to President Trump by a wide margin.
5. Being re elected in 2020.
Probably more important is the fact that Trump knows that a lack of an agreement and continuing tariffs will make it tougher for him to get elected. So Trump will want some sort of an agreement to use as an achievement to brag about before November 2020..........and so the opposite(tariff damage to the US) cannot be used against him.
This makes it an interesting chess match. China's president holding out, while his country suffers increasing pain, Trump actually waiting to make the agreement so its close enough to the election to count as a big plus vs the big negative that it is now.
If Trump had a big lead in the polls, he could wait until after getting re elected but a big lead will never happen. If Trump is behind in the polls, then:
1. If he loses the election with no deal in place, his tariffs will be seen as nothing but damaging no matter how you look at it. No longer president Trump will go down in history as a miserable failure with regards to his policy with China.
2. If he loses the election and a deal was made before the election, he can at least claim that his tariffs forced China to make some concessions and a deal. China may not honor the new deal with a new president(cheat) on it because their is no way the new president will reinstate tariffs..but at least no longer president Trump can brag that he got China to accommodate US interests.
3. My prediction is this: As the election gets closer and he has debates with the dem his just made deal with China will be something he can brag about. Even if its a crummy deal, he will make it sound as if it was the best deal in history. Even if its a crummy deal for the US, China will be happy to go along with the interpretation that the US got the much better end. Letting Trump use it for political purposes to try to get re elected isn't going to hurt them and in fact, helps them if Trump gives in on most of what he wants.
No way that Trump expects to get everything. Like all good negotiators, you ask for much more than what you are willing to settle for as this causes the other side to bid higher when haggling for the eventual compromise.
Scenario #1, I'm insisting on selling something for $1,000 and you want to pay $100, I will probably get more for it on the final sales price, than if(scenario #2) I was asking $150 and you want to pay $100.
The most I can get is $150 if you give me my asking price in scenario #2. In scenario #1, you might give me $200 and you feel like you got a great deal to boot!
after all these months of working this deal IMHO Trump is not going to buy a junk 100 car for 1000. China is feeling it right now. They are more likely to sell a junk car for 100. Not based on anything more than a feeling and what I hear on the internet and tv which is dangerous.
SO we agree
1: there may be no deal before 2020
2: There might be a signed deal before 2020
3: There may be a signed deal after 2020
4: There may be no deal after 2020
5: A dem will forget the whole trade war, if a Dem is in the WH
# 1 2 3 and 4
Nobody has explained to me how the USA wins, if china continues to not abide by the agreement. I think we can all agree on that much re: china cheats and lies
No matter if china signs some time, there is no way to enforce any signed deal. In the mean time, china finds alternate food supplies and trades with 75% of the world population. Nobody really knows who is hurting the most but a signed deal buys time, for china, until the next trade war. China may very well sign and then lie and cheat. What have they got to lose??? They have solved a very big problem by not allowing 45 million people to starve as Mao did. The USA rode to the rescue on the food problem. Can't sell food to china fast enough
# 5 is a loser for the USA. That is a win for those who want the trade war to end.
# 1 2 3 4 and 5 will lose the trade war, one way or another
Eventually china tells the USA to go pound salt