Sometimes the survey respondents can be a bit pessimistic and assorted indicators showed that may be the case. Matthew Klein at Barron's seems to agree.
"U.S. manufacturers have just reported their best streak of growth since the start of 2019. According to data published by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday, industrial production grew by 0.6% in August compared with July. Excluding energy extraction, refining, and transmission, manufacturing output grew at a rate of 0.5%. This monthly gain more than offsets the drop in July relative to June, so that average output in June-August is now 0.3% higher than in March-May—the first three-month/three-month increase since the start of 2019."
we'll see what the cass freight index shows over the next month or so. does it reflect the positive numbers in your survey, or is it contrary (continue to show a contraction) ?
The point here is that surveys like PMI and ISM were showing slight contraction while the hard data does not.
For example, yesterday's industrial production for August.
"Showing broad strength in August, strength that will ease concerns at the Federal Reserve over weakness in manufacturing, industrial production hit the very top of Econoday's consensus range with a 0.6 percent gain and the strongest showing of the year. Manufacturing production exceeded Econoday's consensus range, at a 0.5 percent monthly rise and third gain in four months. This reading opened the year with four straight declines, three of which were very sharp including a 0.9 percent plunge in April."
Thanks for bringing this very informative, useful to understanding the economic big picture element to our trading forum!
I guess the main point I've tried to convey is that if you take one measurement and try to draw conclusions, you're probably wrong.