home builders topped out?
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Started by bear - Sept. 17, 2019, 4:36 p.m.


on the 10 yr chart, some home builders are showing a big H&S , with a left shoulder around 2015, and a head in early 2018 .  will we work on the right shoulder now?  

By 7475 - Sept. 17, 2019, 7:04 p.m.
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I see it on the 3 yr chart -almost forming a range.

Would you call those "mini- shoulders"6 months either side of the head?


By cutworm - Sept. 17, 2019, 11:31 p.m.
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Disclaimer I own DHI

Look at DHI or PHM both are at their highs, with strong up trend lines going back to the lows last November, and longer trend lines going back years. Both are strongly above their 50, 100, and 200 day averages. What I see is a cup base with a strong up trend. Low unemployment and low interest rates are movers of new houses.

I guess that it is possible that they could be making a double top, but until the up trend lines are broken or the moving averages are broken the trend is up.

In DHI's case the board Ok'ed the buy back of up 1 Billion $ of stock. That does not sound like recession.

We do foundations for housing market and orders are and have been strong a long time.


By Richard - Sept. 18, 2019, 8:07 a.m.
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With the information I have and the way I see the world, Housing is peaking on a long term basis. Housing prices in some areas have peak and will be going down for the next 10 years, if not more.

By TimNew - Sept. 18, 2019, 9:13 a.m.
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Housing starts had a very strong showing for August.


"Housing starts and permits had been struggling to climb but climb they did in August, jumping far beyond Econoday's consensus range to a 1.364 million annual rate for starts and 1.419 million for permits. Readings are now slightly better than they were at their expansion peak early last year."

By wglassfo - Sept. 18, 2019, 9:14 a.m.
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In Canada most people are stopped out of the housing market because of high prices

And  yet I see large housing development still going on, so somebody must be buying

I don't know in your country but a 100' x 150 lot cost 50 -75,000.00, even 100,000.00 plus the house 

4 - 6 even 8 duplex connected with a 1 car garage seem to be one way to keep cost down

If we ever move to town a duplex with all services included seems atractive to us, but they still cost upward of 400,000.00 for a two bedroom

As we would simply move out and let family have our house that might put a strain on available funds

What is happening, folks are selling million dollar houses and then moving to cheaper housing, even if in a new development, it is still cheaper, to buy a new house out a bit from the centre of Toronto, especially when selling a million dollar house

No idea how things work in your country but houses are dang expensive in this part of the country

Makes you wonder how long this can continue