Weather forecasts

Wednesday:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/39248/

Thursday weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/39356/

Friday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/39417/

Previous weekly discussions on natural gas here. WOW!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/37647/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/37162/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36053/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/35573/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/35104/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/34604/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/34053/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/33668/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/33132/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/32675/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/32177/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/31521/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/31099/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30641/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30007/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/29419/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/28858/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/28351/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27780/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27305/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26861/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26506/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26105/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/25678/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/25189/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/24662/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/24111/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/23680

Last Thursday:

EIA +78 BCF a bit bullish vs expectations                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,019 Bcf as of Friday, September 6, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 78 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 393 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 77 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,096 Bcf. At 3,019 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2014 through 2018. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

Latest Release  Sep 12, 2019   Actual78B     Forecast82B   Previous

            Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious

Sep 12, 2019 10:30    78B      82B     84B
Sep 05, 2019 10:30    84B      78B     60B
Aug 29, 2019 10:30    60B      57B     59B
Aug 22, 2019 10:30    59B      60B     49B
Aug 15, 2019 10:30    49B      58B      55B

                                    Forecast for tomorrow is 75 BCF.

7 day temperatures for the period used, ending 9/6/20 for that storage report:

7 day temperatures ending last Friday that will be used for tomorrows weekly report, released at 9:30 am.

Very impressive heat!! The injection will be small vs average but the market knows this and with supplies gushing in, it might not be as small as previous years having similar temps.

The forecast is 75 BCF which seems pretty high to me considering the amount of heat.

This seasonal price chart below is for 2 decades, ending back in 2009.

We should note from this chart that prices often bottom in late August................and we did have a bottom in that time frame with a stronger than usual rally in September, thanks to the heat using up so much natural gas for cooling. Now, the market will be looking for the top in this rally, which could be right now or wait until the heat recedes a bit more or wait to see what the storage report shows.

September 18, 2019  update:

The dominant imposing factor for prices earlier this year had been massive, record large injections that have increased supplies faster than any time in history and crushed prices.

We got a bounce in late May from intense heat in the Southeast.

Then the first 2 weeks of July, featured increasing heat in the extended forecasts, so natural got a huge lift. Cooler forecasts after that sent prices crashing back to life of contract lows in late July/early August.

Heat returning helped us to bounce again from those lows earlier this month to last Thursday..........when the forecast turned cooler again.

Cash prices had been below $2 at times.

Then, prices just got too low and the large speculators were massively short. That, in combination with seasonal strength and the biggest factor HEAT triggered a massive (short covering) rally of $6,000/contract.  

However, we are at major resistance, have come along way and heat in late September is losing its power to move prices. In fact, in a month, cold temps and cooling degree days will pass up heating degree days.

NG 7 days

Natural gas 3 months below

Natural Gas Intelligence after the close Wednesday:

Natural Gas Futures Retreat as Average EIA Build Expected

     5:38 PM    

After rallying to start the week, natural gas futures prices gave up ground for a second consecutive session Wednesday as the market looked ahead to what was expected to be a near-average weekly inventory report. The October Nymex futures contract settled 3.1 cents lower at $2.637/MMBtu after trading as high as $2.696 and as low as $2.603. November settled at $2.665, down 3.5 cents.

metmike: Considering the widespread heat last week, it surprises me that the market is not expecting a smaller than average build.

I see from my source above that the average guess is for a build of +75 bcf.

I will guess that it's less than +70 bcf.

Thursday morning from Natural Gas Intelligence:

Natural Gas Futures Called Lower Ahead of EIA Storage; Demand Seen Easing Next Week

+84 BCF Very bearish!

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending September 13, 2019   |  Released: September 19, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: September 26, 2019 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,103 Bcf as of Friday, September 13, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 84 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 393 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 75 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,178 Bcf. At 3,103 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2014 through 2018. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Bearish Miss from EIA at 84 Bcf; Natural Gas Futures Tumble

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

Natural Gas Intelligence Fri Morning:

‘Sizable’ Hotter Trends Overnight as Natural Gas Futures Called Higher

       8:56 AM

Natural Gas Intelligence Monday Morning:

Above-Normal Forecast Seen Bearish Longer-Term as Natural Gas Futures Called Lower

metmike: We have apparently turned the corner from cooling degree days being the most important to heating degree days being the most important....being just under 2 weeks away from this happening climatologically. 

However, the record heat coming up this week will set a record for CDD's the last week in September.  This would ordinarily still be bullish even this late in the season but we've traded this heat all month now and the days of CDD demand dominating are numbered, even if we get a last ditch spike higher here.

It looks like the forecast is for an injection of +78 BCF on Thursday. With as much heat as we had, this seems high but last week was incredibly high for the amount of heat used for AC use.....and it was cool in the Northeast.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Natural Gas Intelligence after the close on Monday:

First Day of Fall Leaves Natural Gas Futures Mostly Unchanged

     5:11 PM    

The natural gas futures market marked the official start of fall with a quiet trading session Monday; a key support level held as traders mulled the prospect of large injections in the weeks ahead. The October Nymex contract settled at $2.527/MMBtu, down 0.7 cents after probing as low as $2.493 in the early-morning hours, while November finished unchanged at $2.555. 

NGI Tuesday AM:

Near Record Heat Forecast for South as Natural Gas Futures Called Higher

Weather Tuesday:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/39629/

Wednesday Weather:

  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/39703/

NGI after the close:

Natural Gas Futures Steady Ahead of EIA Report, October Expiry

     5:35 PM    

Natural gas futures traders seemed to be keeping their powder dry Wednesday as they looked ahead to both a new round of government inventory data and the front-month expiration. After trading as high as $2.519/MMBtu and as low as $2.455, the October contract, set to expire Thursday, eventually settled close to even at $2.502, off a tenth of a penny. November settled 0.7 cents lower at $2.518

Thursday Morning: Degree Days Added Overnight as Market Awaits EIA Data; Natural Gas Futures Called Higher

Thursday Weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/39788/

Thursday EIA Report:

+102 BCF  Mega Bearish

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending September 20, 2019   |  Released: September 26, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: October 3, 2019 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,205 Bcf as of Friday, September 20, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 102 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 444 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 47 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,252 Bcf. At 3,205 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2014 through 2018. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Natural Gas Intelligence comment on EIA report:

EIA’s Triple-Digit Storage Surprise Pulls Rug Out From Natural Gas Futures

October natural gas expires today but after the release of the super duper, mega bearish EIA number, November ng dropped $800/contract immediately.

Natural Gas Intelligence after the close Thursday:

Storage Sinks Natural Gas Futures into October Expiry as Triple-Digit Build Surprises

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

  Latest Release  Sep 26, 2019  Actual102B   Forecast89B   Previous84B

Friday Morning NGI:

‘Startling’ Build Indicates ‘Substantially Higher’ Production; NatGas Futures Called Lower

Friday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/39862/

Saturday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/39924/

Sunday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/39972/

Monday weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/40034/

From NGI early morning: Weather Demand Seen Weaker, Production Up as Natural Gas Futures Called Lower

Tuesday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/40107/

       9:20 AM      

Natural Gas Futures Called Lower Amid ‘Bearish Background State’

Natural Gas Intelligence after the close on Tuesday:

Natural Gas Futures Continue to Deteriorate as Production ‘Much Too Strong’ and Cash Dips

     5:27 PM    

With only pockets of demand across the United States, a significant drop in production on Tuesday did little to stop a slide in natural gas prices that has left the prompt month nearly a quarter lower than it was a week ago. The November Nymex gas futures contract fell another 4.7 cents to settle at $2.283/MMBtu. December dropped 2.4 cents to $2.48

Weather Wednesday:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/40213/

From Natural Gas Intelligence:

October Forecast ‘Skewed to the Warmer Side’ as Natural Gas Futures Called Slightly Lower

 As Mike knows, we've been in a transition the last few days from the seasonal end of CDD dominance to the very start of HDD dominance on those days when day to day wx forecast changes are focused on by the market as a primary mover. Of late though, it appears that anticipated very large injections/increased production have been the biggest influence (bearish).

Thanks Larry! Yes, this transitional period from CDD to HDD being the most important makes it challenging to ascertain which is the most important on any model run..............since a big increase in CDD, often results in a decrease in HDD and vice versa.

This seems pretty bearish to me.

+112 BCF

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending September 27, 2019   |  Released: October 3, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: October 10, 2019

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,317 Bcf as of Friday, September 27, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 112 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 465 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 18 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,335 Bcf. At 3,317 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum value

Latest Release  Oct 03, 2019  Actual112B   Forecast105B   Previous102B

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

Thursday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/40283/

 Compared to the WSJ survey average of +101, the +112 was quite bearish. Only 3 reports this injection season have been more bearish than this one (more than 11 higher than the survey), which includes last week's being 13 higher than the survey, the highest being 16 higher than the survey, and the 2nd highest being 15 higher.

 That being said, there may very well have been a whisper number higher than the WSJ's +101 for all we know. But otherwise, I'm not at all surprised NG is much higher now because:

- It had fallen 12 sessions in a row, which hadn't happened at least since 1995!! (per my look at my source's historical data, which goes back to 1995). Unless I missed something, I had to go all the way back to August of 2001 just to find a 10 day in a row drop!

- Today's 0Z model consensus' HDDs (both the GFS and Euro ens) rose substantially vs 24 hours earlier while the CDDs changed little. 

- So, despite the solidly bearish vs WSJ EIA, you had the perfect storm for a relief rally.

These were the temperatures for the EIA report today(7 days ending last Friday).

Much above over the eastern half of the country.

NGI after the close on Thursday:

Natural Gas Futures Find Support in Weather Data, Snap Losing Streak

Larry,

I didn't realize that natural gas had fallen that many days in a row until you pointed it out. WOW!

Friday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/40359/

NGI: Traders Still Digesting Plump EIA Build as Natural Gas Futures Reverse Lower

metmike: Prices went to far/low too fast and the first seasons decent cold snap is on the way later next week.

Saturday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/40416/

Sunday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/40481/

Monday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/40546/

NGI morning comments: Latest Forecasts ‘Quashing’ Hopes for Shift to Colder Temps as Natural Gas Called Lower

Wednesday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/40674/

NGI Wednesday Morning: Latest Guidance Mixed as November Natural Gas Called Lower

7 day temperatures for tomorrows EIA report. Record heat in the Southeast.

                                                                                                                                                                                                The last 3 reports have come in bearish...........actual exceeding the Forecast by +6bcf, +13bcf and +7bcf.  One would think the over supply side dynamics are more dialed into this next report more because of this. With record/extreme temps, there is a better chance for increased usage, however, this was well over 2 months past the Summer peak cooling season and CDD numbers, though massive for this time of year, were not massive by Summer standards............and its just 1 week............and the market stopped trading heat weeks ago.

I will guess the the number will be  a bit bullish and below the 95bcf forecast this time.   So if it is bullish, the spike higher might just be a blip.

Well, I guessed wrong, the EIA number was not a bit below 95 bcf, it was a bit above it but the market did spike a bit higher as if it thought the number would be higher than the 98bcf that was actually reported.

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending October 4, 2019   |  Released: October 10, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: October 17, 2019 

                                                                                                                                                                                              +98 bcf.  Maybe that was more neutral??                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,415 Bcf as of Friday, October 4, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 98 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 472 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 9 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,424 Bcf. At 3,415 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2014 through 2018. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Thursday weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/40727/

NatGas Futures Trim Gains After EIA’s ‘Most Straightforward, No Surprise Report’

    11:19 AM    

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 98 Bcf injection into storage facilities for the week ending Oct. 4, falling well within the wide range.

Natural Gas Intelligence after the close Thursday:

NatGas Futures Fail to Hold Early Gains, Slide After Bearish Storage Stat

An early-session rally for natural gas futures petered out later Thursday after the latest government storage data reflected incredible looseness in the market...

Friday Morning early:

      10:14 AM      

Natural Gas Futures Close to Even as Market Awaiting Further Signs of Cold

metmike: We spiked to new lows for the move and since the lows in August, below 2.2, then reversed strongly to higher.

Potential for a significant price reversal..........if the pattern turns sharply colder late in week 2.