Freeze Watch Sep. 24-early Oct, 2019
16 responses | 1 like
Started by metmike - Sept. 24, 2019, 12:15 p.m.

The products below are from GFS ensemble analogs and show the % of the previous/historically similar events that resulted in a sub 32 deg. F temperature:

Risk for freeze in 9-11 day period on the first map.

Risk for freeze 12-14 day period on the 2nd map.

The states just south of the Canadian border have a pretty good chance when the cold in the Rockies surges east.

We are talking the first week in October and this cold will coincide with normal first freeze dates to even later than average in northern spots. 




By metmike - Sept. 24, 2019, 12:16 p.m.
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Median Dates for the First 32ºF Freezes


By metmike - Sept. 24, 2019, 12:18 p.m.
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Previous posts on Freezes:

                Damaging Midwest Freezes the last 50 years            

                            17 responses |        

                Started by metmike - Aug. 7, 2019, 5:33 p.m.    

                Frost/corn development            

                            18 responses |             

                                    Started by wglassfo - Aug. 26, 2019, 8:53 p.m.    

                Freeze Watch            

                              25 responses                    

                Started by metmike - Sept. 11, 2019, 9:58 p.m.    

By tjc - Sept. 25, 2019, 11:31 a.m.
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Thank you for your dedicated weather followup.

FYI---bought 890 bean calls

By metmike - Sept. 25, 2019, 11:46 a.m.
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You're very welcome tjc,

A freeze in early October is not going to do alot of damage and  the US model turned much warmer overnight. We have the harvest pressure ahead of us. Rains don't look quite as heavy today either but this could cause a quick spike higher. 

Also, the seasonals for beans in the next 2 weeks are the weakest of the year because of the harvest.

However, we have some bullish fundamental items too with regards to beans(production is probably lower than USDA and demand is picking up). The China situation is a wild card.

By metmike - Sept. 25, 2019, 11:51 a.m.
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Freeze chance for 9-11 day and 12-14 day periods below from Sept. 25 GFS ensemble guidance.

Freeze chances are pretty high in the Upper Midwest by late in the first week of October. This would actually be LATE compared to their average first freeze date.



By metmike - Sept. 26, 2019, 7:46 p.m.
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 The cold is coming too late to do a great deal of damage to corn/beans:. I can't rule it being traded as a bullish item but for most of these areas, this is close to or even later than the average first freezing temperature. 

Freeze threat:

Oct 1-4 Below


Oct 4-7 Below


Oct 7-10 Below


By metmike - Sept. 27, 2019, 12:21 p.m.
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Freeze threats below for GFS ensemble guidance on Friday, Sept 27th, Oz run............just too late to cause much damage.

Oct 2-5

Oct 5-8

Oct 8-11

By metmike - Sept. 28, 2019, 5:45 p.m.
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Today is September 28th. 

The maps below are for the 6-8 day, 9-11 day and 12-14 day time frame based on the GFS 0z guidance.

By metmike - Sept. 29, 2019, 3:52 p.m.
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Today is September 29th. 

The maps below are for the 6-8 day, 9-11 day and 12-14 day time frame based on the GFS 0z guidance. Temperatures below freezing/32 degrees F. in the areas colored below, represent average to even later than average first freeze dates.

As we've been telling you for some time, this will not be a major freeze damage event for the corn and soybean crop. .....though it will end the growing season along the northern tier in early October...........a bit later than usual there. 

By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:18 a.m.
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Freeze threat/sub 32 deg. F reading below in the 6-8 day time frame. After that, it warms back up:

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2019, 12:32 a.m.
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We are getting within a week now of the freeze threat(which will not do much damage in the 2nd week of October)

These are day 7 minimum temperatures:

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2019, 7:01 p.m.
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Here comes the cold this week. Shouldn't be that much damage in the 2nd week of October.

By wxgrant - Oct. 7, 2019, 3:16 p.m.
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GFS Analogs now have a 50% of a freeze for much of southern Illinois and a 40% chance of a freeze for two thirds of my DMA this weekend. 5 days ago we set the all time record high for October at most locations including 96 in Paducah! 

By metmike - Oct. 7, 2019, 4:37 p.m.
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Thanks Grant, I really like that product.

By metmike - Oct. 8, 2019, 10:08 a.m.
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Low temperature maps above for days 3-7 are updated daily.

Based on crop condition/maturity from yesterday, there will be some damage from the cold in the Northwest belt.

However, this is not the area that had the main planting delay issues in the Spring.

By metmike - Oct. 9, 2019, 4:01 p.m.
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Low temperature maps for days 3-7 above are updated again. The growing season will end in the northwest belt with hard freezes.

This is actually later than usual by almost 2 weeks for the northern half of that area!


Median Dates for the First 32ºF Freezes