Hard to isolate something like this as there are numerous other factors that could come into play such as trade war and corporate profit growth.
But all things being equal, I would expect the market to climb a wall of worry about impeachment (which represents political instability) and the expected acquittal by the senate to be a selling event.
My guess is that the President will unveil his "Coup de Gras", the trade deal with China. This will insulate him with a holy armor that will be impenetrable. Shrouding himself in accomplishment so majestic that impeachment efforts will boomerang against the very ones that propose such. As it is unthinkable to impeach 'The King". Therefore, I think that the impeachment trade will be to buy the beans!
The democrats haven't come up with a candidate that I would even remotely consider voting for, in well over 30 years.
That being said, I am watching treasuries pretty close. As well as currency shifts. Not that I expect the greenback to lose it's position of world currency real soon. But it is possible. Especially if this "trade war" doesn't work out.
Good point,JOJ.
I wonder if the historic past 2 1/2 yrs holds any predictive value concerning this?
John
There is no impeachment trade that seems obvious to me(others may see one) because the market already knows that this is just a continuation of the last 3 years, same song, new verse and a complete dead end.
Unpredictable, short term spikes on Trump tweets or surprises are likely and there is ALWAYS the chance that Trump will do something crazy but the more predictable horizon suggests this is an expected nothing burger.........that could actually cause the exact opposite to happen as its intended to by the impeachers..........give Trump the 2020 election, which would be very bullish for the markets.