INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 1, 2019, 7:53 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, October 1, 2019  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.8%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.4%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.1%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. September US Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 50.3)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. September ISM Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 50.2; previous 49.1)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 46.0)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 47.4)

 



 

 

                       Inventories (previous 49.9)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 47.2)

 



 

 

                       Production Idx (previous 49.5)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

 



 

 

                       New Construction (expected +0.4%; previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Residential Construction

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. September Global Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 49.5)

 



 

 

4:00 PM ET. September Domestic Auto Industry Sales

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.4M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.9M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.2M)

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S. fiscal year begins

 



 

 

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 512.2)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -10.1%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 261.4)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.1%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1982.0)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -15.2%)

 



 

 

8:15 AM ET. September ADP National Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +138000; previous +195000)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. September ISM-NY Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Business Index (previous 50.3)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 419.538M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.412M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 230.204M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.519M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 133.685M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.978M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 89.8%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.181M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.919M)

 



 

 

Thursday, October 3, 2019  

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. September Challenger Job-Cut Report

 



 

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +37.7%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 213K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1650000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 494.0K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1038.0K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 283.2K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. September US Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 50.7)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. September ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 55.2; previous 56.4)

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 61.5)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 58.2)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 53.1)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 60.3)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +1.4%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +2.1%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3205B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +102B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. September Global Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 51.8)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, October 4, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. August U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

 



 

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -54.6B; previous -53.99B)

 



 

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 207.4B)

 



 

 

                       Exports, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 261.39B)

 



 

 

                       Imports, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. September U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +140K; previous +130K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.7%; previous 3.7%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.11)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.11)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.39%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.3%; previous +3.2%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous +34K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +96K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 

                   
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the August 26th reaction low crossing at 7390.00 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 8175.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7846.35. Second resistance is September 12th high crossing at 8002.50. First support is the August 26th reaction low crossing at 7390.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 7244.50.



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2988.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2950.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2988.91. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 3025.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2950.76. Second support is September's low crossing at 2895.00.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-27 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 166-25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 163-10. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 166-25. First support is the September 13th low crossing at 157-17. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-27.



December T-notes were sharply lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 127.171 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 130.250 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 130.250. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 132.130. First support is the September 13th low crossing at 128.160. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 127.171. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



November crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 52.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 63.89. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 65.23. First support is the September 12th low crossing at 59.93. Second support is September's low crossing at 52.71.  



November heating oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November resumes the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 215.12 the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 209.35. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 215.12. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.44. Second support is the September 12th low crossing at 185.15. Third support is September's low crossing at 178.06.



November unleaded gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 155.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If November resumes the rally off September's low, May's high crossing at 177.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 175.26. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 177.80. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 155.93. Second support is the September 12th low crossing at 149.84.



November Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the September 17th high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September's high, the August 23rd low crossing at 2.185 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.547 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.489. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.547. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.302. Second support is the August 23rd low crossing at 2.185.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 99.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.78.  



The December Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.78 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.78. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.66. First support is the overnight low crossing at 109.39. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.    



The December British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2320 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2776 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2595. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2776. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2320. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2008.



The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0161 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0230. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0244. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0046. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0000.



The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 75.77 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.If December resumes the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 74.84 is the next downside target.First resistance is September's high crossing at 76.23. Second resistance is the July 31st high crossing at 76.40. First support is the September 18th reaction low crossing at 75.22. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.84.



The December Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 0.0924 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0941 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0941. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0952. First support is the September 19th reaction low crossing at 0.0927. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.0924.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1510.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.



December silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.075 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.



December copper was sharply lower overnight as it renews the decline off September's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 248.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 261.32 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.50. First support is the overnight low crossing at 253.45. Second support is September's low crossing at 248.20.     



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally following a friendly quarterly grain stocks report. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.69 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.69. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.52 1/4.      



December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above August's high crossing at 5.06 1/4 would open the door for a larger-degree rally off September's low. First resistance is August's high crossing at 5.06 1/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 5.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.50 1/2.   



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 7 1/2-cents at 4.15.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.20. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.36 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.02. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.81.  



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.66 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.66 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.79. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.38. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.20. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were higher in overnight trading.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.80 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 9.09. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.80 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.51.  



December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the September 13th reaction high crossing at 304.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 13th reaction high crossing at 304.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 306.30. First support is September's low crossing at 292.00. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.   



December soybean oil was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 28.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.32. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 30.41. First support is September's low crossing at 28.20. Second support is August's low crossing at 27.88. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $0.17 at $65.45. 



October hogs closed higher on Monday as it extends the August-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends last week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.36 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off July's high, last-July's low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.36. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 70.83. First support is August's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.  



October cattle closed down $0.45 at 104.58. 



October cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, the August 9th reaction high crossing at 107.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.66 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 105.25. Second resistance is the August 9th reaction high crossing at 107.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 101.84. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.66.  

 

October Feeder cattle closed down $1.93 at $142.40. 



October Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, the May 17th reaction high crossing at 148.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 144.73. Second resistance is the May 17th reaction high crossing at 148.23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 140.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.80.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed slightly higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-August-decline crossing at 10.64 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 94.20 is the next downside target.       



December cocoa closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 25.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



October sugar closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.16 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If October extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 12.30 is the next upside target. 



December cotton closed lower on Monday while extending the August-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 64.62 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 59.58 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. 

Comments
By metmike - Oct. 1, 2019, 12:46 p.m.
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Thanks much tallpine!


Especially watching Minas Gerais state in Brazil for rain chances related to the coffee market. 

Possibly an upper level ridge in 2 weeks which could turn things bullish.