Law of diminishing returns in technology
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Started by metmike - Oct. 25, 2019, 10:33 p.m.

However, there's something called the law of diminishing returns that applies in most realms.

Currently, there are many industries that have reached a mature phase in which technological advances that improve products are less and less noticeable vs previous versions.

Resolution on tv screens for instance. Internet speeds. Most home appliances. Cars, computers,  video games, you name it.  There will always be new versions with a few more bells and whistles that add a shrinking % of value to the new ones vs the old ones but the main benefits have already been realized by a wide margin.

For instance, there is nothing that you can invent to replace my computer that will have even half of the value of what I realized in going from no computer to this one.

Add that to the speed of the internet as fast as anybody would ever want and access to everything around the world and ability to communicate to everbody in that world instantly and any improvements from here will be incrementally small. 

This is the case for almost all electronic devices, especially cell phones. New applications will obviously continue but they might only add a low single digit amount of value. 

Here's an interesting example. When we were in the early phases of developing the technology that led to sending astronauts into space, the advances were massive and at an incredible but unsustainable pace.

In 1969, the United States had men landing and walking on the moon.  Just a few decades previously, we had never been outside the earth's atmosphere but the space race,  and lots of money, technology and brilliant people led to this spike higher in accomplishments/technology...........and since then, the law of diminishing returns has taken over.

If not and we had continued at the previous rate of advancement in that field, then our astronauts today, 50 years later would be traveling like Captain Kirk to distant galaxies. Instead, man has not even landed on our closest planet(that we could actually land on) Mars.

It could be done with spending a ton of money, some estimate close to a trillion dollars(which would be better spent on paying down the debt) but the point is that the law of diminishing turns took over in this field  after the landing on the moon..........where each dollar spent to advance the technology is going to result less advancement than the previous dollar. 

Human mission to Mars

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars


With so many of our technologies already at extraordinarily  high levels for providing service and/entertainment to users there is only a fraction of additional upside left compared to how much was achieved up to this point and what was used as the main selling point of those products up to this point.

How will this affect demand for new, fractionally better products in the future?


Diminishing law of innovation returns and the problem with “better”

https://www.ideatovalue.com/inno/nickskillicorn/2017/11/diminishing-law-innovation-returns-problem-better/


Comments
By TimNew - Oct. 26, 2019, 7:33 a.m.
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Fascinating subject, and one that is near and dear to my heart :-)

The fact is, technology is advancing in a geometric fashion. Look at the end of the 20th century vs the beginning.  Far more happened than in all the previous centuries combined.  The question I ponder..  will our reach exceed our grasp?

I think TV's will soon be doing holograms.  3d movies in the home.   How big of a stage will you want?

And I think we'll eventually have direct computer interface   to the human brain.  Imagine what this would do for education, not to mention entertainment.  Virtual reality at a whole new level.  And I'll save speculation on the interactive porn console for another time <G>.  Needless to say, some may prefer that interaction to eating.  LOL

By 7475 - Oct. 26, 2019, 8:30 a.m.
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A high school teacher brought that concept to our class' attention one day and it fascinated me.

It had always been right there in front of our faces but invisible until someone said "Hey,look!"

Surely since radio and TV that concept has played a major role in the astronomical rise in marketing budgets and the salaries of those who successfully perform in those corporate departments. Not to ignore the scramble to major in such while choosing a college career path.

 Does the principle apply to that discipline also?

John