INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 31, 2019, 4:09 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, November 1, 2019 



8:30 AM ET. October U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +75K; previous +136K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.6%; previous 3.5%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.09)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous -0.01)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous -0.04%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.0%; previous +2.9%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)



                       Government Payrolls (previous +22K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +114K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)



9:45 AM ET. October US Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (expected 51.5; previous 51.1)



10:00 AM ET. September Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place



                       New Construction (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)



                       Residential Construction



10:00 AM ET. October ISM Manufacturing Report on Business



                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 49.1; previous 47.8)



                       Prices Idx (previous 49.7)



                       Employment Idx (previous 46.3)



                       Inventories (previous 46.9)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 47.3)



                       Production Idx (previous 47.3)



4:00 PM ET. October Domestic Auto Industry Sales


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The December NASDAQ 100 posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7905.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 8141.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7990.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7905.56.   



The December S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2987.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3052.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3014.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2987.07.  



The Dow closed lower on Thursday due to renewed worries about a U.S. - China trade deal along with more evidence of a slowdown in manufacturing. Mixed corporate earnings,despite an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Wednesday also weighed on stocks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are poised to turned neutral to bearish with additional weakness that would signal a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,704.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 27,306.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 27,204.36. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 27,306.73. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,704.50. Second support is the October 8th low crossing at 26,139.80.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



December T-bonds closed up 1-21/32's at 161-07.



December T-bonds closed higher on Thursday following yesterday's interest rate by the Federal Reserve Board as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-31 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the September 13th reaction low crossing at 160-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-31. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-03. First support is Monday's low crossing at 158-05. Second support is the September 13th reaction low crossing at 157-17. 



December T-notes closed up 250-pts. At 130.085.



December T-notes closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.145 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high the September 13th low crossing at 128.160 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.145. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.010. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 129.015. Second support is the September 13th reaction low crossing at 128.160.      



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.21 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. Worries about the global economic along with lackluster factory data out of China, and a news report that said Chinese officials have doubts over prospects for a long-term trade deal with the U.S were the driving factors behind today's sell off.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline the reaction low crossing at 52.46 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 56.84. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25. First support is the reaction low crossing at 52.46. Second support is October's low crossing at 50.99. 



December heating oil closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 182.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 193.46 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 197.99. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is October's low crossing at 182.39. Second support is September's low crossing at 178.06.  



December unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday following yesterday's key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 155.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 171.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 165.97. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.17. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 155.64.



December Henry natural gas posted a key reversal down on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.507 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this week's rally, September's high crossing at 2.884 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 2.762. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 2.884. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.507. Second support is October's low crossing at 2.388.        



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The December Dollar closed lower on Thursday confirming yesterday's a key reversal down. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 96.63. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.76 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.76. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.99. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 96.63. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 96.06.



The December Euro closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 112.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 112.48. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 113.22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.03. Second support is October's low crossing at 109.38. 



The December British Pound closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2736 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2736. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2520.    



The December Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0205 are needed to renew the rally off October's low. If December renews the decline off last-Friday's high, October's low crossing at 1.0029 is the next downside target.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0205. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0230. First support is October's low crossing at 1.0029. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0000.



The December Canadian Dollar close lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 76.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 76.70. Second resistance isJuly's high crossing at 76.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.69. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.97. 



The December Japanese Yen closed sharply higher on Thursday following yesterday's key reversal up. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0927 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0934 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0934. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is Wednesday's low crossing 0.0917. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



December gold closed higher on Thursday while extending the August-October trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 1543.30 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1459.80 is the next downside target. First resistance the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1559.80. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1426.60.



December silver closed higher on Thursday while extending October's trading range. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 18.800 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off the September 24th high, the 62% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 18.350. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. First support is October's low crossing at 16.940. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 16.547.



December copper closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 260.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 270.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 273.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 260.83. Second support is October's low crossing at 251.50.  



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down 1-cent at 3.89 3/4. 



December corn closed lower on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 3.78 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.78 1/4. Second support is the September 26th low crossing at 3.72 1/4.   



December wheat closed down a 1/2-cent at 5.08 3/4. 



December wheat closed fractionally lower on Thursday below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.10 1/2 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.91 1/2 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.51. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.91 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.76 1/4.      



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 1/2-cents at 4.19 3/4.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.09. Second support is October's low crossing at 3.98 3/4.   



December Minneapolis wheat closed up a 1/2-cent at 5.24. 



December Minneapolis wheat fractionally higher on Thursday but remains below the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/2. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.99 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.39 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.39 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.58. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.99 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.86 1/2.     



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans closed up 1 1/4-cents at 9.31 3/4.



January soybeans closed higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.40 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.40 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.59 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.13 1/2.    



December soybean meal closed up $2.50 at 304.70. 



December soybean meal closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 314.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 319.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.20. Second support is the September 27th low crossing at 294.30.    



December soybean oil closed down 27-pts. at 30.71. 



December soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates below the 87% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 31.41. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.41 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December renews the rally off the September 27th low, February's high crossing at 32.06 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 31.41. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.06. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.61.       

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed up $0.23 at $66.00. 



December hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extends the August-October trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.24 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 63.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 73.89. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 79.97. First support is October's low crossing at 63.08. Second support September's low crossing at 57.75. 



December cattle closed down $1.08 at 117.23. 



December cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 117.71. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 115.62. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.95.  

 

November Feeder cattle closed down $0.28-cents at $147.60. 



November Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 149.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 144.97. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 149.34. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.44. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.06.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's rally, October's high crossing at 10.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



December cocoa closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 23.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.06 is the next upside target.     



March sugar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 12.59 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.92 is the next downside target. 



December cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 67.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.   

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 1, 2019, 12:55 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine!

If weather models keep the pattern change to milder going, the key reversal down in ng will be confirmed.


Weather for harvest will be mostly dry the next 2 weeks, with maybe some catching up but still too chilly to do much corn drying in the fields.

Coffee weather getting dicy with uncertain amounts(leaning bearish) and many spots Minas Gerais on the dry side.