INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 1, 2019, 4:43 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, November 4, 2019 



9:45 AM ET. October ISM-NY Report on Business



                       Business Index (expected 42.8)



10:00 AM ET. October Employment Trends Index



                       ETI (previous 110.97)



                       ETI, Y/Y%



10:00 AM ET. September Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)



                       Total Orders, M/M% (previous -0.1%)



                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.5%)



                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.0%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.2%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M%



11:00 AM ET. October Global Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (previous 49.7)



  N/A              U.S: Will Rogers Day in Oklahoma


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The December NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday as it extended this year's rally into uncharted territory.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7925.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8161.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8018.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7925.52.   



The December S&P 500 closed higher on Friday as it extends this year's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2992.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3062.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3025.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2992.99.  



The Dow closed sharply higher on Friday after the Labor Department estimated the U.S. economy added 128,000 new jobs in October and upwardly revised its estimate of job growth in September and August. Investors were also digesting the latest data on the U.S. manufacturing sector, which continued to contract in October, but less severely than the month before. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 27,306.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,727.02 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 27,322.57. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 27,306.73. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 26,990.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,840.63.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



December T-bonds closed down 19/32's at 160-25.



December T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the September 13th reaction low crossing at 160-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-29. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-03. First support is Monday's low crossing at 158-05. Second support is September's low crossing at 157-17. 



December T-notes closed down 70-pts. At 130.025.



December T-notes closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.140 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high the September 13th low crossing at 128.160 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.140. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.010. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 129.015. Second support is September's low crossing at 128.160.      



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil closed sharply Friday, trimming this week's loss following today's strong U.S. jobs data report, a decline in the number of U.S. drilling rigs, and a more upbeat tone around U.S.-China trade talks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.28 would open the door for a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 52.46. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 56.84. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25. First support is the reaction low crossing at 52.46. Second support is October's low crossing at 50.99. 



December heating oil closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 182.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 193.55 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 197.99. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is October's low crossing at 182.39. Second support is September's low crossing at 178.06.  



December unleaded gas closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 171.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 155.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 166.22. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 155.99.



December Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday leaving yesterday's key reversal down unconfirmed. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, September's high crossing at 2.884 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.516 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 2.762. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 2.884. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.516. Second support is October's low crossing at 2.388.        



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The December Dollar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 96.63. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.69 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.69. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.99. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 96.63. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 96.06.



The December Euro closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 112.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 112.48. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 113.22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.04. Second support is October's low crossing at 109.38. 



The December British Pound closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2765 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2765. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2532.    



The December Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above October's high crossing at 1.0205 are needed to renew the rally off October's low. If December renews the decline off last-Friday's high, October's low crossing at 1.0029 is the next downside target.First resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0205. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0230. First support is October's low crossing at 1.0029. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0000.



The December Canadian Dollar close higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 76.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 76.70. Second resistance isJuly's high crossing at 76.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.70. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.97. 



The December Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends Thursday's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0934 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0934. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is Wednesday's low crossing 0.0917. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



December gold closed lower on Friday while extending the August-October trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 1543.30 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1459.80 is the next downside target. First resistance the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1559.80. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1426.60.



December silver closed lower on Friday while extending October's trading range. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 18.350 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off the September 24th high, the 62% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 18.350. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. First support is October's low crossing at 16.940. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 16.547.



December copper closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's loss. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 261.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 270.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 273.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 261.03. Second support is the October 16th low crossing at 257.30.  



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down 3/4-cents at 3.89 1/4. 



December corn closed lower on Friday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 3.78 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.78 1/4. Second support is the September 26th low crossing at 3.72 1/4.   



December wheat closed up 7 1/4-cents at 5.16. 



December wheat closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.92 1/2 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.51. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.92 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.76 1/4.      



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 6 1/4-cents at 4.26.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.09 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.09 1/2. Second support is October's low crossing at 3.98 3/4.   



December Minneapolis wheat closed up 7 1/4-cents at 5.31 1/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.99 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.39 1/2 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.39 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.58. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.99 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.86 1/2.     



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans closed up 4 1/2-cents at 9.36 3/4.



January soybeans closed higher on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.40 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.40 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.59 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.14 1/2.    



December soybean meal closed down $0.50 at 303.90. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 314.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 319.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.30. Second support is the September 27th low crossing at 294.30.    



December soybean oil closed up 30-pts. at 31.05. 



December soybean oil closed higher on Friday as it consolidates below the 87% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 31.41. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.47 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December renews the rally off the September 27th low, February's high crossing at 32.06 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 31.41. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.06. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.65.       

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed down $1.55 at $64.45. 



December hogs closed lower on Friday as it extends the August-October trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 63.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 72.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 73.89. First support is October's low crossing at 63.08. Second support September's low crossing at 57.75.  



December cattle closed up $2.30 at 119.53. 



December cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 119.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116.21. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.38.  

 

November Feeder cattle closed up $1.53-cents at $149.13. 



November Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday and tested the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 149.34. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 154.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 149.34. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 154.02.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.34.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 10.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



December cocoa closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 23.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.06 is the next upside target.     



March sugar closed unchanged on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 12.59 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.92 is the next downside target. 



December cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.93 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 67.19 is the next upside target.    

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 3, 2019, 8:05 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


We negated the downside reversal in ng on Thursday from milder maps in week 2, with much colder weather models on Friday, which continued over the weekend.

Weather model solutions overnight will determine what happens early Monday.

Copious rains for coffee country after day 5 and beyond..........bearish, at least for weather.

Weather not a factor for grains but is mostly favorable/dry, though very chilly. 

In Brazil, it looks like nice rains coming to the dry areas....bearish!