When will the recession start
6 responses | 1 like
Started by wglassfo - Nov. 2, 2019, 8:29 p.m.

I would dare to say the recession has alread started

Most of us just don't know

, untill after the fact and looking back we will say the recession actually started  sooner than today

We need to put a mark on the wall and see if I am correct.,


As of Nov 1st. we are in a recesson, that will last much longer than anybody would imagine, as in longer than 2 yrs, possivly until 2030

By metmike - Nov. 3, 2019, 12:21 a.m.
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Thanks Wayne,

And what do you base this on?

By Richard - Nov. 3, 2019, 5:07 a.m.
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You could be right . . .

By mcfarm - Nov. 3, 2019, 6:10 a.m.
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dang if you are that sure you needed to moving assets already to prepare to secure and profit....but you are not that sure are you....sort of like predicting when global warming will kill us all after we buy a 15 million dollar mansion on the beach

By wglassfo - Nov. 3, 2019, 3:11 p.m.
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Container rate demand for cargo have slumped dramaticly which means a lot less economic activity world wide. That is my number 1 warning flag, as container rates going down mean almost all or maybe all countries are in a slump, not just one country

The rest is mostly NA or more exactly, the USA which is the engine that drives world economic activity.

Car sales slumping

Higher than normal car loan defaults over  90 days

Slump in housing sales, but not so much in housing starts. That is a sign of recession unless those houses find a buyer.

Higher consumer, Corp and gov't debt

Fed liquidity trap

Fed according to latest Powell statement, said that the Fed wants inflation and will not raise int rates to combat inflation, unless for an extended time

Entire world has ultra low int rates thus no room to accomadate, if a recession is happening. USA can't raise int rates if the world stays low. Raising int rates while consumers  have higher default on debt is a recipe for disaster.

Gov't facing increasing Social Services expenditures will result in more debt or more taxes, either of which would result in recession

Gov't could offset much of this increased war spending by stopping engagement in never ending wars, but every time Trump tries, he is crucified by the Dems and MSM. Even some Pubs oppose his efforts to stop engaging in wars, but most people offer  no clear end game. Trump gets called Puttins puppet which is so clearly wrong, so the debt increases

Corp are not spending on increased R & D to stay competitive, instead they use cash profits for share buy backs

Cash for a rainy day is low in most of the USA either personal or  corp

Just some thoughts to support my rcession thoughts

I will admit the stk market continues to perform well as buying the dips seems to work very well

However, majority of people have never seen a recession coming until after the fact

As for personal I will not sell land

As for stk market portfolio I have said sell for two yrs. and buy a farm. I sold my small amount of stks but my wife won't sell her stks.

 My wife did not sell and so far I have been wrong or at least not clearly right as land prices are crazy high around here, and the ROi is not there.

At least all my land is paid for.

By metmike - Nov. 3, 2019, 3:20 p.m.
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Thanks Wayne,

Some excellent points in there.

By bear - Nov. 4, 2019, 3:54 p.m.
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yield curve has tried to right itself lately.  so maybe we will see just a little bounce the next 6-12 months.   (at least it is not going negative at the moment).  

growth is weak.  some things are contracting,  but some things are not contracting. 

example, here, n.w. tucson, the homebuilding activity still seems to be a nice positive.  

i think of home building as a form of manufacturing.  

car "building" may not be doing great,  but home building is doing ok, at least here locally .  people are swinging hammers, and getting paid.  you don't see lots of empty storefronts.  

farmers are growing crops as always.  

and the freeway is full.  if you live in a bedroom community, and work in tucson, traffic is stop-n-go on the way into town each morning on I-10.   (that is not a GDP number like the fed may put out, but it tells me lots of people are going to work-  it tells me nothing about how much they get paid).   

looks to me like the economy is not really growing much, but not really contracting either.  (locally).

nationally we are down a little from 2018, but still better than 2016.  (if we use shipments as a measure).