INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 4, 2019, 7:36 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, November 4, 2019  

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. October ISM-NY Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Business Index (expected 42.8)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Employment Trends Index

 



 

 

                       ETI (previous 110.97)

 



 

 

                       ETI, Y/Y%

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. September Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.5%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. October Global Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 49.7)

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S: Will Rogers Day in Oklahoma

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it extends this year's rally to a new all-time high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7949.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 8218.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8047.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7949.96.



The December S&P 500 gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3000.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3079.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3032.72. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3000.19.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's short covering gains. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off October's high, September 13th low crossing at 157-17 is the next downside target. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-26. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-07. First support is 38% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 158-12. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 157-17.



December T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's gains. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.129 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, September 13th low crossing at 128.160 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.129. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.010. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 129.015. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 128.160. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil was higher overnight as it renewed the rally off October's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 56.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.59. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 52.46.  



December heating oil was higher overnight as it extends last-Friday's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the September 19th high crossing at 201.38 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.94 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at 181.51. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 197.99. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.94. Second support is October's low crossing at 181.51.  



December unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 171.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 159.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 167.46. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 159.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 156.40.  



December Henry natural gas gapped up and was sharply higher overnight as it renews the rally off October's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at 2.884 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.533 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.842. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 2.884. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.590. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.533.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was a slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.61 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.61. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.98. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.06.  



The December Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 113.22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.03. Second support is the October 15th low crossing at 110.37.    



The December British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2797 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is  the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2797. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2545.



The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight and working on a possible inside day as it consolidated some of last-week's gains. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's rally, October's high crossing at 1.0205 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 1.0029 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0205. second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0230. First support is the October 15th low crossing at 1.0050. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.0029.



The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If December resumes the rally off October's low, July's high crossing at 76.95 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 76.68. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.02. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.72.  



The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0933 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0929. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0933. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0918. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight while extending the August-November trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the October 1st low, the reaction high crossing at 1543.30 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.



December silver was steady to slightly higher overnight while extending October's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above October's high crossing at 18.350 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target.First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.



December copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 261.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 270.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 261.29. Second support is the October 1st low crossing at 251.50.      



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight.The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.78 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness into November. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.78 3/4. Second support is the September 26th low crossing at 3.68 1/4.      



December wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.93 1/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 5.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.93 1/4. Second support is the September 25th low crossing at 4.76 1/4.   



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 6 1/4-cents at 4.26.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.09 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.09 1/2. Second support is October's low crossing at 3.98 3/4.       



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.38 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 24th high crossing at 5.49 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.58. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.86 1/2.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.41 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.41 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.59 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.15 3/4.  



December soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.30 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 314.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 319.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.50. Second support is September's low crossing at 292.00.    



December soybean oil was sharply higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, February's high crossing at 32.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 31.41. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.06. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.54. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.71.  



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed down $1.55 at $64.45. 



December hogs closed lower on Friday as it extends the August-October trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 63.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 72.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 73.89. First support is October's low crossing at 63.08. Second support September's low crossing at 57.75.  



December cattle closed up $2.30 at 119.53. 



December cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 119.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116.21. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.38.  

 

November Feeder cattle closed up $1.53-cents at $149.13. 



November Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday and tested the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 149.34. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 154.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 149.34. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 154.02.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.34.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 10.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



December cocoa closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 23.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.06 is the next upside target.     



March sugar closed unchanged on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 12.59 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.92 is the next downside target. 



December cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.93 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 67.19 is the next upside target.    

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 4, 2019, 12:12 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

NG may be running out of steam with massive cold possibly easing up  in week 2 but we have another bullish gap higher from last night still open. Fill that gap and its an exhaustion gap formation on the charts.

Coffee weather still bearish but not AS bearish.......less rain today.

Dry areas of Brazil have rains coming the next 2 weeks..............bearish.

US weather not a  factor.  May start to get dry/very warm in Argentina at the end of that period as the rains move into Brazil but not an issue right now.