INO Evening Market Comments
1 response | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - Nov. 5, 2019, 4:18 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Wednesday, November 6, 2019 



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey



                       Composite Idx (previous 519.2)



                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +0.6%)



                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 247.2)



                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +2.3%)



                       Refinance Idx (previous 2066.0)



                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -0.5%)



8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs



                       Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +0.9%; previous +2.3%)



                       Unit Labor Costs (expected +2.3%; previous +2.4%)



10:00 AM ET. October Online Help Wanted Index



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report



                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 438.853M)



                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.702M)



                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 220.057M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.037M)



                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.754M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.032M)



                       Refinery Usage (previous 87.7%)



                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.597M)



                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.433M)

                       

11:00 AM ET. October Global Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 51.6)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The December NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday as it extended this year's rally into uncharted territory.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7980.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8248.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8086.63. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7980.79.   



The December S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3009.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3084.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3040.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3009.10.  



The Dow closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this year's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,961.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 27,560.36. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 27,135.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,961.94.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



December T-bonds closed down 1-11/32's at 158-03.



December T-bonds closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the September 13th reaction low crossing at 157-17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-22 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-22. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-03. First support is September's low crossing at 157-17. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25.



December T-notes closed down 185-pts. At 129.000.



December T-notes closed lower on Tuesday as they renewed the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high the September 13th low crossing at 128.160 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.111 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.111. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.010. First support is today's low crossing at 128.275. Second support is September's low crossing at 128.160.      



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.79 would open the door for a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 52.46. First resistance is today's high crossing at 57.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25. First support is the reaction low crossing at 53.71. Second support is October's low crossing at 50.99. 



December heating oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, October's high crossing at 197.99 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 197.99. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.94. Second support is October's low crossing at 182.39. 



December unleaded gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 171.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 156.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 168.43. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 156.81.



December Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 75% retracement level of the March-August-decline crossing at 2.960 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.552 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.905. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August-decline crossing at 2.960. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.552. Second support is October's low crossing at 2.388.         



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The December Dollar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.99 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 96.63.  First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.99. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 98.38. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 96.63. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 96.06.



The December Euro closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 112.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 112.48. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 113.22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.00. Second support is October's low crossing at 109.38. 



The December British Pound closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2827 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2827. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2556.    



The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off last-Friday's high, October's low crossing at 1.0029 is the next downside target.Closes above October's high crossing at 1.0205 are needed to renew the rally off October's low. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0205. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0230. First support is October's low crossing at 1.0029. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0000.



The December Canadian Dollar close lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 76.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 76.25. Second resistance isJuly's high crossing at 76.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.73. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.97. 



The December Japanese Yen closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0929 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is today's low crossing 0.0917. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



December gold closed sharply lower on Tuesday as a rally in U.S. stocks, bond yields and the dollar on hopes for a U.S.-China trade deal, along with a stronger-than-expected ISM services reading, sent prices for the precious metal to their lowest finish in three weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1459.80 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 1543.30 is the next upside target. First resistance the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1559.80. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1426.60.



December silver closed lower on Tuesday while extending October's trading range. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off the September 24th high, the 62% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 18.350 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 18.350. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. First support is October's low crossing at 16.940. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 16.547.



December copper closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, July's high crossing at 280.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 261.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 271.55. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 261.60. Second support is the October 16th low crossing at 257.30.  



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down 1-cent at 3.82 1/4. 



December corn closed lower on Tuesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 3.78 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Friday's low crossing at 3.91 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.78 1/4. Second support is the September 26th low crossing at 3.72 1/4.   



December wheat closed up 5 3/4-cents at 5.15 1/2. 



December wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.51. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.94. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.76 1/4.      



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 5 1/2-cents at 4.28 1/2.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.10 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is October's low crossing at 3.98 3/4.   



December Minneapolis wheat closed up 1 3/4-cents at 5.26. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.37 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.99 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.37 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.58. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.99 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.86 1/2.    



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans closed down 3 3/4-cents at 9.34 1/4.



January soybeans closed lower on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.41 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.41 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.59 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.17.    



December soybean meal closed up $0.20 at 302.60. 



December soybean meal closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.50 would open the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at 294.30. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 314.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 319.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.50. Second support is the September 27th low crossing at 294.30.    



December soybean oil closed down 31-pts. at 31.56. 



December soybean oil closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the September 27th low, February's high crossing at 32.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.65 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 31.96. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.06. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.65. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.78.       

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed up $2.75 at $67.28. 



December hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the August-November trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 63.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 72.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 73.89. First support is October's low crossing at 63.08. Second support September's low crossing at 57.75.  



December cattle closed down $0.63 at 119.45. 



December cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 120.33. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 117.41. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.26.  

 

January Feeder cattle closed down $0.23-cents at $145.78. 



November Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 146.85. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 151.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 146.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 151.31.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 136.85.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the July-October-decline crossing at 10.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



December cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 23.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.    



March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 12.93 is the next upside target. Closes below 50-day moving average crossing at 12.34 would confirm that a top has been posted.  



December cotton closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-week's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.82 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 67.19 is the next upside target.    

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 5, 2019, 7:15 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks a ton tallpine!


Cold has pushed ng up to test the September highs but we could be running out of steam here. Much of the current cold is dialed in and this is major resistance. Along with negative seasonals and supplies gushing in, any moderation in the cold in week 2 could cause a major reversal lower.  

Grain harvest weather is good but very chilly. Big rains coming up to dry areas in Brazil is bearish for the grains, especially beans.

Coffee country has been too dry the last few weeks but rains are increasing again in week 2 and the coffee weather is shifting more bearish. Seasonals for coffee are strong here though but there could be an uptick in aggressive selling when these rain events get closer.

Looking at the last few runs of the models, those rains in Brazil look pretty impressive the next 2 weeks. Argentina, on the other hand will be drying out but they have had enough rain recently.