INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 6, 2019, 8:09 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, November 6, 2019  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 519.2)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 247.2)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +2.3%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 2066.0)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -0.5%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +0.9%; previous +2.3%)

 



 

 

                       Unit Labor Costs (expected +2.3%; previous +2.4%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Online Help Wanted Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 438.853M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.702M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 220.057M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.037M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.754M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.032M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 87.7%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.597M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.433M)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. October Global Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 51.6)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as U.S. equity-index futures appear to be losing some their upside momentum  along with Europe and Asia stocks following the release of a number of corporate earnings and economic data, which clouded the outlook somewhat for global growth. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8005.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 8248.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8114.38. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8005.29.



The December S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3016.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3084.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3047.01. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3016.74.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of their losses following a three-day decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-17 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-17. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-07. First support is the September 13th low crossing at 157-17. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25.



December T-notes were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, September 13th low crossing at 128.160 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.093 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.093. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.010. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 128.275. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 128.160. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 57.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.02. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 52.46.  



December heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the September 19th high crossing at 201.38 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.94 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at 181.51. First resistance is October's high crossing at 197.99. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.94. Second support is October's low crossing at 181.51.  



December unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 171.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 160.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 168.43. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160.95. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157.16.  



December Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the March-August-decline crossing at 2.960 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 2.718 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.905. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August-decline crossing at 2.960. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 2.718. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.671.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was a lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.99 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.99. Second resistance is the October 15th reaction high crossing at 98.38. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.06.



The December Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it bounces off support marked by the 50-day moving average. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 113.22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.99. Second support is the October 15th low crossing at 110.37.    



The December British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2860 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is  the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2860. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2567.



The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 1.0029 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0182 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0182. second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0205. First support is the October 15th low crossing at 1.0050. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.0029.



The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it continues to form a potential bear-flag. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.74 would open the door for a possible decline to test October's low crossing at 74.97. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.22 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 76.68. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.74. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.97.  



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0929 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0929. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.0917. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's huge loss while at the same time extending the August-November trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1519.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.



December silver was lower overnight while extending this fall's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above October's high crossing at 18.350 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.



December copper was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 272.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 261.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 272.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 265.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 261.88.      



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.90 3/4.The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.90 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.20 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.07 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.20 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.90 3/4. Second support is the September 26th low crossing at 3.80 3/4.      



March wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.01 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 5.39 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.01. Second support is the September 25th low crossing at 4.82 3/4.   



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 4-cents at 4.39 1/2.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.53 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.24. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.13 1/2.     



March Minneapolis wheat was mostly steady overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.51 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.20 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 24th high crossing at 5.63. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.71 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.35. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were steady to fractionally higher in overnight trading.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.41 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.41 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.59 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.17.  



January soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 303.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 315.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 320.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 303.70. Second support is September's low crossing at 293.80.    



March soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, February's high crossing at 32.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 32.44. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.24. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.34.  



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed up $2.75 at $67.28. 



December hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the August-November trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 63.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 72.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 73.89. First support is October's low crossing at 63.08. Second support September's low crossing at 57.75.  



December cattle closed down $0.63 at 119.45. 



December cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 120.33. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 117.41. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.26.  

 

January Feeder cattle closed down $0.23-cents at $145.78. 



November Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 146.85. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 151.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 146.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 151.31.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 136.85.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the July-October-decline crossing at 10.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



December cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 23.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.    



March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 12.93 is the next upside target. Closes below 50-day moving average crossing at 12.34 would confirm that a top has been posted.  



December cotton closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-week's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.82 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 67.19 is the next upside target.    

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 6, 2019, 1:39 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Massive rains in dry areas of Brazil is bearish, especially beans.

NG: Cold in the US may be dialed and possibly moderating in week 2. And we have been testing the Sept highs.

Probably need some additional cold to break thru that level.