KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, November 12, 2019
6:00 AM ET. October NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (expected 100.5; previous 101.8)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.2%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.6%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)
Wednesday, November 13, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 518.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 241.0)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.5%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2102.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +1.8%)
8:30 AM ET. October Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. October CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -1.4%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.7%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.4%; previous +2.4%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.3M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.2M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.6M)
Thursday, November 14, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 211K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1689000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)
8:30 AM ET. October PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous -0.3%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous -0.3%)
Personal Consumption (previous -0.3%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3729B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +34B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 446.782M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +7.929M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 217.229M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.828M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.132M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.622M)
Refinery Usage (previous 86.0%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.134M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.463M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher in overnight as European and Asian stocks rose due to a lull in trade-war headlines and tension in Hong Kong. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8082.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 8282.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8201.77. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8082.19.
The December S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3040.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3095.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3072.84. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3040.48.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were slightly lower overnight as they consolidate above the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 153-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-02 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-02. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 160-26. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 153-06.
December T-notes were lower overnight as they remain poised to extend the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.133 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.133. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.003. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 126.122.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
December crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 57.88. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.64. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 52.46.
December heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 185.94 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at 181.51. If December renews the rally off last-Thursday's low, the September 19th high crossing at 201.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 197.99. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is the reaction low crossing at 185.94. Second support is October's low crossing at 181.51.
December unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 158.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 171.96 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 168.43. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 161.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158.19.
December Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.621 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-August-decline crossing at 2.960 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2.905. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August-decline crossing at 2.960. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.621. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.575.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was a higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the October 15th high crossing at 98.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.51 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the October 15th high crossing at 98.38. Second resistance is the October 8th high crossing at 98.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.51. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63.
The December Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the October 8th low crossing at 109.92 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.35 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 113.22. First support is the October8th low crossing at 109.92. Second support is October's low crossing at 109.38.
The December British Pound was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. If December extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2616 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.2782. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2616.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 1.0029 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0133 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0182. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0205. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.0045. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.0029.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 74.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.12 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.13. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 76.68. First support is the reaction low crossing at 75.47. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.97.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 0.0929 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0929. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0929. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.0915. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1501.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1448.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.
December silver was lower overnight as it consolidates below the lower boundary of this fall's trading range crossing at 16.940. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.783 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the October's high crossing at 18.350. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.
December copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 276.34 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 273.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 276.34. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 262.81.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight.The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the September 18th low crossing at 3.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.95 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.07 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.20 3/4. First support is the September 18th low crossing at 3.78. Second support is September low crossing at 3.65 3/4.
March wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.04 1/4 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 5.39 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.04 1/4. Second support is the October's low crossing at 4.92 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down a 1/2-cent at 4.30.
March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.25 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.25 1/4. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.13 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.46 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the October 24th high crossing at 5.63. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.71 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.86 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans were fractionally lower in overnight trading.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.36 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.36 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.59 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.12. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.95 3/4.
January soybean meal was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the September 27th low crossing at 296.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.80 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 315.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 320.70. First support is the September 27th low crossing at 296.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 293.80.
March soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, February's high crossing at 32.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 32.44. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.55.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed down $0.83 at $63.30.
December hogs closed lower on Monday as it extends the August-November trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.83 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 57.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 72.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 73.89. First support is October's low crossing at 63.08. Second support September's low crossing at 57.75.
December cattle closed up $0.63 at 119.88.
December cattle closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.71 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 120.33. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.71.
January Feeder cattle closed up $1.25-cents at $147.13.
November Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday and above the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 146.85. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 151.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 146.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 151.31.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.04. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.10.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-October-decline crossing at 11.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cocoa closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 23.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed steady on Monday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below 50-day moving average crossing at 12.35 would confirm that a top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 12.93 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed slightly lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 67.19 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off this month's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.27 is the next downside target.
Delayed thanks tallpine!
Moderating temperatures and the very negative, bearish island reversal on the weekly chart look bad for ng.......but its possible to get cold enough again to negate that chart formation.
South American weather is mostly bearish for grains. US harvest weather is good for the next 10 days.