Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 10:39 a.m.

3 Days until Thanksgiving and 30,000 reasons to be thankful to be living in the best time of human history!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2. 

Much warmer temps vs the forecasts for Friday is crushing ng.

Huge Winter Storm(s) Plains to U.Midwest supporting corn(with a lot of the crop still in the field and subject to losses from heavy snow and HIGH WINDS.

Winter Weather Forecasts

  Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                        Go to "hazards"                                                                                     


 Current Weather Map

NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion


Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble




Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning





Highs today and tomorrow.



By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 10:42 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Cold West to Plains to U.Midwest.  Mild south and southeast but cooling.



By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 10:42 a.m.
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Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.  

Very Cold West, South is mild/warm.


By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 10:44 a.m.
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Weather features day 3-7:

Winter storms getting more active. 2 big ones this week!



By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 10:46 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Much of this will be heavy snow in the cold sector of 2 Winter Storms.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:



Excessive rain potential

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19


Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast



Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Grams/Leitman
Issued: 30/1238Z
Valid: 30/1300Z - 31/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0537Z
Valid: 31/1200Z - 01/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0725Z
Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook


By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 10:52 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that mapStatic map

By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 10:53 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 10:53 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change


By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 10:57 a.m.
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Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

In july/August/Sept/Oct, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of  evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during those months. However, this year saw a HUGE increase in the Southeast!

November 21: DROUGHT the last  month+ has really shrunk. One area to watch is sw Kansas for the Winter wheat crop.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.    

Drought Monitor for conus


Drought Monitor for conus


By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 10:59 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!

Sunday: Way, way more zonal and mild the past 2 days!!!!

Monday:  Other models are more zonal and milder today......but the Canadian model is back to amplifying the pattern at the end of 2 weeks, so this model is colder.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 10, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 10:59 a.m.
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                Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            




                By metmike - Nov. 24, 2019, 1 p.m.            


                                Like                Reply            


0Z GFS(American model) Ensembles at 2 weeks:


By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 11:01 a.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

Friday: Much more powerful upper ridge/west, trough east couplet associated with a potential Stratospheric warming event(in the same area as the yellows on this map that show the greatest positive anonalies in the troposphere)  that could displace the polar vortex pretty far south. Potenial!  Where is goes and if it happens still uncertain but this would bring frigid air into large parts of the US........if it happens.

Sunday: Not nearly as amplified or as the very cold solutions from last Friday but still the moderately cold ridge/west, trough east couplet. ....on this model and this run at 2 weeks.

Monday: The GFS ensemble is much milder and more zonal today.  Just weak anomalies.
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product




By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 11:06 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Discussions, starting with a week ago.

Monday: Huge changes. AO increasing to close to zero(big spread in solutions), NAO just slightly negative and both are higher than recent values. Reduces cold risks but solutions are volatile..........low confidence. PNA drifts a bit lower, near 0 and neutral. 

Tuesday:  AO slight negative, with NAO and PNA near zero. No strong indications but the pattern looks like it could morph colder again. Low confidence. 

Wednesday: Models overnight were colder

Thursday: AO and NAO closer to zero and not as cold. PNA also near zero.

Friday: Extreme spread in the AO today. Some are actually positive for the first time in awhile, while most are solidly negative and favorable for cold to move from high latitudes to mid latitudes but there is extremely high uncertainty. It can end up being very mild from just small changes vs intense cold. NAO slight negative...but a few are positive,  PNA neutral. Enormous risk with temperature forecasts in the late week 2 period. Small changes can mean a 40 degree flip in the temperature. 

Saturday: AO forecast to be a bit positive at the end of 2 weeks for the first time in quite awhile......less favorable for cold.  NAO and PNA close to zero.  Milder than Friday.

Sunday: Huge AO changes. Many members go very strongly positive which lessens cold air outbreak probabilities. However, some are still negative, so an incredible spread and uncertainty.  NAO increasing from low values to a tad above 0.........also lessening cold risks at 2 weeks. PNA near 0.  Cold risk after the first week in December have decreased. 

Monday: Very positive AO decreases chances for cold from high latitudes moving to the middle latitudes. NAO moving to slightly positive is also a potential mild indicator. PNA close to zero but dropping a bit late.

By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 11:06 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability



By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 11:09 a.m.
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Previous posts:

Polar Vortex disruption showing on model; Sturdy cold would follow





                Re: Re: Weather Saturday            


                By metmike - Nov. 24, 2019, 12:16 a.m.            


                          Polar Vortex disruption showing on model; Sturdy cold would follow

Sudden stratospheric warming


"In a usual northern-hemisphere winter, several minor warming events occur, with a major event occurring roughly every two years.  One reason for major stratospheric warmings to occur in the Northern hemisphere is because orography and land-sea temperature contrasts are responsible for the generation of long (wavenumber 1 or 2) Rossby waves in the troposphere. These waves travel upward to the stratosphere and are dissipated there, decelerating the winds and warming the Arctic. This is the reason that major warmings are only observed in the northern-hemisphere, with one exception. In 2002 a southern-hemisphere major warming was observed.[5][6] This event to date is not fully understood."

metmike: These events were  even more common during the 1970's during global cooling.




                Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            


                By metmike - Nov. 24, 2019, 1:12 p.m.            


This potential event no longer looks very impressive on Sunday.


Monday morning: The Polar Vortex intrusion south that looked possible/likely late last week is not there, continuing on the track of yesterdays forecast philosophy. 

By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 4:41 p.m.
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