Exports November 25, 2019
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Started by metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 11:03 a.m.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

Beans continue to be massive. Wheat not bad, corn mediocre.....ok, corn not as terrible as some recent weeks. 

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By hayman - Nov. 25, 2019, 11:43 a.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 12:04 p.m.
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Yes, China is gobbling up our beans!

China is acting like the trade war is over with regards to beans. So they must need the beans badly and/or SA's price is too high or they aren't filling all their orders or they know its not going to matter with regards to the trade agreement coming up...........you can bank on an agreement because Trump is not going into the 2020 election show down with the dem candidate with this unresolved..........no way because he wants to be re elected more than he wants to..........more than he wants anything else actually. 

That is the case with every politician. 


Inspections were in line with expectations last week, a little above for #soybeans. Some 914k tonnes of those beans were for #China (might be largest post-trade war weekly total?). #Corn inspections were the strongest for any week so far in 2019/20. #Wheat ttl ahead of last year.

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By hayman - Nov. 25, 2019, 12:21 p.m.
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Soybean meal is holding firm while soyoil is down hard. This rotation whereby soybean meal leads is almost required for soybeans themselves to stage a meaningful rally.  THough beans are moving in export, like hogs, this has not reflected in price for futures. Plus this frustration and indifference here with beans is the chemistry of which bottoms are concocted.  Oats and wheat certainly reveal the preesence of hot demand.

By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 2:12 p.m.
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The meal, as feed is being helped by corn and wheat and oil hurt by beans.



By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 2:12 p.m.
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Here's the chart showing weekly #corn inspections versus the previous four years. Data is through Nov. 14 for 2019/20.


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By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 2:14 p.m.
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To be fair, #corn inspections were extremely strong this time last year, so -58% YOY might be over-dramatizing this year's poor export demand. Inspections are down around 25% from the same point in 2017 (6.64 mmt as of Nov. 15, 2017).


@kannbwx

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By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 4:38 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Export inspections for #soybeans in the week ended Nov. 21 (1.943 mmt) were the largest since mid Nov. 2017. But in prior peak shipping seasons, volumes over 2 mmt were not uncommon. Lately, the bigger volumes have been largely driven by more participation YOY from #China.

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By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 5:01 p.m.
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Karen Braun@kannbwx


Here's what U.S. 19/20 Q1 soy exports to #China probably look like. Sep is official, Oct is approx., & Nov is (conservatively) estimated. Inspections data suggests >3 mmt of #soybeans to CN in Nov (thru 21st). Nov '19 is on track to be biggest vol of US soy to CN since Dec '17.

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