GDP Revised up to 2.1. Durable goods +.6
4 responses | 0 likes
Started by TimNew - Nov. 27, 2019, 9:14 a.m.
By metmike - Nov. 27, 2019, 1:19 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much Tim!

I thought we were supposed to be in a recession?

Strange times with mixed economic signals too. 

By TimNew - Nov. 27, 2019, 1:36 p.m.
Like Reply

I can't see an argument for a recession,  not even impending.  We aren't seeing the across the board strength we saw for 2018,   MFG has taken some lumps, corporate reinvestment is not what I would have expected,  but overall,  we're running pretty strong...   Largely on consumer spending...     Which continues to trend up.  A good sign leading into the holidays.

By MarkB - Nov. 28, 2019, 2:08 a.m.
Like Reply

Consumer spending, is a fickle beast. And also lags behind any economic changes.

By TimNew - Nov. 28, 2019, 6:22 a.m.
Like Reply

Consumer spending is considered a leading indicator. It also accounts for about 2/3 of the economy.

'There are other economic indicators that lead stock market performance, which long-term investors should be more heavily weighting when making investment decisions. At the same time, investors need to deemphasize those indicators that lag market performance. The first step is to identify what is leading and what is lagging, which is not easy to do, because it often contradicts conventional wisdom. Market pundits and the financial press regularly misconstrue what is leading and what is lagging, because they do not understand the sequence of events that power the business cycle, or the cause and effect relationship between the different economic indicators. This can lead investors to miscalculate the strength of the economy, looking backwards when they should be looking ahead, as they make investment decisions. A prime example is the relationship between employment, a lagging indicator, and consumer spending, which is a leading indicator."