INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 29, 2019, 7:39 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, November 29, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 833.9K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1516.7K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 437.7K)

 



 

 

1:00 PM ET. U.S. financial markets close early after Thanksgiving

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 8231.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 8458.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 8231.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8029.56.



The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3104.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3154.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3104.73. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3029.03.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were steady to higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 161-22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-26 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 161-22. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-26. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25.



December T-notes were slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past six-days. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.065 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 130.155 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.273. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.155. First support is November's low crossing at 127.315. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 60.07 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.77. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 60.07. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 54.85. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 53.84.  



January heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the October-November trading range crossing at 197.02. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off the October low, the September 16th high crossing at 207.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 191.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 197.02. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at 207.82. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 184.41. Second support is October's low crossing at 180.42.  



January unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, May's high crossing at 173.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 164.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 170.36. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 173.61. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164.14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158.85.  



January Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.391 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.704 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.590. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.704. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.434. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.391.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the October 8th high crossing at 98.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 97.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the October 8th high crossing at 98.96. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 99.31. First support is the reaction low crossing at 97.55. Second support is November's low crossing at 96.96.



The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the October 8th low crossing at 109.92 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.68. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 112.22. First support is the October 8th low crossing at 109.92. Second support is October's low crossing at 109.38.  



The December British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-months.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2730 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2782. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2730.



The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight and is poised to test support marked by May's low crossing at 1.0000. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, May's low crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0111 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0154. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0182. First support is May's low crossing at 1.0029. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9906. 



The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.69 would confirm that a short-term bearish outlook.If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 74.84 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.69. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.26. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 75.03. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.97.  



The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0929. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0913. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1489.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1571.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1489.90. First support is November's low crossing at 1446.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.



December silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.491 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.491. Second resistance is the October's high crossing at 18.350. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.



December copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at 273.00 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 257.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 273.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 276.34. First support is November's low crossing at 261.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 257.30.      



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



The Grain markets will begin trading when the day session begins trading. Here are the closing comments from Wednesday's close.



March Corn closed down 4 3/4-cents at 3.73 1/2. 



March corn closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's low, September's low crossing at 3.65 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.91 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.83 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.91 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 3.73. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.65 3/4.   



March wheat closed down 4 3/4-cents at 5.26 1/4.  



March wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 4.98 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.58 1/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.98 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.84 1/4.      



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 4-cents at 4.37 1/2.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday while extending the August-November trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.53 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 4.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.23. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.13 1/2.   



March Minneapolis wheat closed down 3 1/2-cents at 5.08 1/2. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.26 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.14 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.26 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.06. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4.     



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans closed down 2 1/4-cents at 8.82.



January soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 8.76 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 9.42 1/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 8.76 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.65.    



December soybean meal closed down $1.00 at 293.70. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 294.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 302.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 314.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 319.20. First support is today's low crossing at 293.60. Second support is the September 27th low crossing at 294.30.    



December soybean oil closed up 8-pts. at 30.30. 



December soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 29.55 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 31.39 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is November's high high crossing at 31.96. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.06. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 30.12. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 29.55.   



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed down $0.15 at $60.68. 



December hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 57.75 is the next downside target. Multiple close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.12 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.12. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.08. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 60.05. Second support September's low crossing at 57.75.  



December cattle closed up $1.03 at 121.43. 



December cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extended the rally off September's low, March's high crossing at 124.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 117.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 121.85. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 124.18. First support is the reaction low crossing at 117.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.86.  

 

January Feeder cattle closed up $1.70-cents at $143.33. 



January Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 136.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 146.85. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 151.31.First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 138.27. Second support is October's low crossing at 136.10.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, July's high crossing at 11.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.  



December cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the May 2018 high crossing at 28.33 is the next upside target.     



March sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the July 30th high crossing at 13.25 is the next upside target. Closes below 50-day moving average crossing at 12.53 would confirm that a top has been posted.  



December cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish with additional gains near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.88 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the September 27th low crossing at 59.58 is the next downside target.      

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 29, 2019, 12:32 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks again tallpine! 

Hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving.


NG getting crushed again with forecast updates looking mild thru at least Christmas........forecasts that far out are not reliable.

Argentina weather has turned BULLISH!  No rain for the next 2 weeks.

Brazil weather is bearish though for at least another week with widespread rains, especially bearish for beans.

Too much rain for coffee.