INO Evening Market Comments
1 response | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - Dec. 19, 2019, 5:10 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, December 20, 2019 



8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Revised Corporate Profits



8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter 3rd estimate GDP



                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)



                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.8%)



                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -0.6%)



                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)



                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.4%)



                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%)



                       Core PCE Price Idx, Ex Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)

                       

                       Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.9%)



10:00 AM ET. November Personal Income & Outlays



                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0%)



                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.3%)



                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)



                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.3%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y%  (previous +1.6%)



10:00 AM ET. November Regional & State Employment & Unemployment



10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final



                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 96.8)



                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 87.3)



                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)



                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)



                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 111.6)



11:00 AM ET. December Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing



                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous -5)



                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 25)



                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous -3)



                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 15)



  N/A              Deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt shutdown


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extend this year's rally into record territory.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8436.81 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8674.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8436.81. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8245.92.   



The March S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it resumed this year's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3148.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3209.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3148.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3087.13.  



The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27,988.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Today's high crossing at 28,381.48. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27,988.16. Second support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 27,563.81.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed down 1/32's at 156-04.



March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 155-00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 160-12. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 160-26. First support is today's low crossing at 155-14. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00. 



March T-notes closed unchanged at 128.070.



March T-notes closed unchanged on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, July's low crossing at 127.090 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.111 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 130.045. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.175. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 127.290. Second support is July's low crossing at 127.090.       



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil closed higher for the fifth day in a row on Thursday as prices posted their highest levels in three months.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, last-April's high crossing at 64.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 61.47. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 64.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 59.77. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.64.  



January heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends their rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 207.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 193.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 203.55. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 207.82. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 197.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.11.



January unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off December's low, last-May's high crossing at 173.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 161.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 171.33. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 173.52. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164.73. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161.75.



January Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.392 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.392. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.571. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 2.158. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.         



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 96.22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.22. Second resistance is the December 6th high crossing at 97.40. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 96.29. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 96.22. 



The March Euro closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 112.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 112.63. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 112.91. First support is the reaction low crossing at 111.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.



The March British Pound closed lower for the fourth-day in a row on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3105 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2985 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-September decline crossing at 1.3748 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2985. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.    



The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at 1.0380 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0193 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0302. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.0380. First support is the December 6th low crossing at 1.0158. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0060.



The March Canadian Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 76.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 76.36. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 76.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.66. Second support is November's low crossing at 75.08. 



The March Japanese Yen posted a key reversal up on Thursday as it consolidates some of its recent losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0913 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0934. First support is today's low crossing 0.0917. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0913.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



February gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends a six-week-old trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1485.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-rally at $1431.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1485.70. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1525.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-rally at $1464.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-rally at $1431.40.



January silver closed higher on Thursday as it extends the November-December trading range. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.271 are needed to temper the bearish outlook. If January resumes the decline off the September 24th high, the 75% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 15.842 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.271. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 18.210. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 16.530. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 15.842.



January copper closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's rally.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 287.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 271.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 280.74. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 287.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 278.37. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 271.73. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed down a $0.1/2-cent at 3.86 1/4. 



March corn closed fractionally lower on Thursday as traders shrugging off a bullish round of export data from USDA this morning to extend the latest stretch of technical selling and profit-taking.Corn export sales soared to 88.4 million bushels for the week ending December 12, which was 96% above the prior week’s level. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $3.90 1/2 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted and would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at $4.00 later this year. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.79 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $3.90 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $3.71. Second support is September's low crossing at $3.65 3/4.   



March wheat closed down $0.02 3/4-cents at $5.45 1/2.  



March wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.16 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.58 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.58 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.16 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at $5.01 3/4.      



March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.01 3/4-cents at $4.60 1/2.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.70 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at $4.70 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is December's low crossing at $4.23 1/2. Second support is October's low crossing at $4.13 1/2.   



March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.02 3/4-cents at $5.41 1/4. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at $5.48 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $5.45 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $5.48 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.19. Second support is November's low crossing at 5.06.      



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans closed down $0.03 1/2-cents at $9.25.



January soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Soybean export sales came in at 53.9 million bushels, which was 36% above the prior week’s tally and 18% better than the prior four-week average. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off this month's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $9.36 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.96 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $9.31. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $9.36 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.08 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.96 1/4.    



January soybean meal closed down $4.30 at $298.60. 



January soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a double top might be in or is near. If January renews the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at $288.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $303.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $303.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $310.00. First support is December's low crossing at $292.60. Second support is weekly support crossing at $288.30.    



January soybean oil closed up 41-pts. at 33.84. 



January soybean oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's rally, May's high crossing at 34.34 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 34.09. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 34.34. First support is 10-day moving average crossing at 32.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.51.        

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $1.08 at $70.98. 



February hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If February extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $68.29 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.86. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $76.62. First support is December's low crossing at $65.40. Second support August's low crossing at $63.67.  



February cattle closed down $0.50 at $125.63. 



February cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $123.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $123.62. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30.   

 

January Feeder cattle closed up $0.18-cents at $144.72. 



January Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.62 would temper the friendly outlook. If January extends last-Friday's rally, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $151.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $146.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $151.31. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.62. Second support is December's low crossing at $139.90.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 14.38 is the next upside target.    



March cocoa closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 24.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.      



March sugar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the June high crossing at 13.78 is the next upside target. Closes below 20-day moving average crossing at 13.13 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.    



March cotton closed higher on Thursday and posted a new high close for the month. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bullish again signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 69.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.       

Comments
By metmike - Dec. 19, 2019, 11:12 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks again tallpine!


Grains weather: Good for Brazil which has been getting nice rains this month. Argentina has been too dry in many spots. A fast moving rain making system will zip thru Argentina Friday to early Saturday...........then dry for around a week, then week 2 weather looks like increasing rains. Take out the week 2 rains and it will be bullish weather for Argentina. Ideally, to get bullish weather, Brazil needs to stop getting so much rain.

Natural Gas weather is bearish..........very mild the next 10 days. When will it turn cold again?  Good buying set up if weather models would shift to a much colder pattern soon. The EIA number on Thursday was pretty bullish.