KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, December 23, 2019
8:30 AM ET. November Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
8:30 AM ET. November CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous -0.71)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.31)
10:00 AM ET. November New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 733K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.3)
Tuesday, December 24, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +2.2%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -3.8%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.8%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)
10:00 AM ET. December Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -1)
Shipments Idx (previous -2)
4:30 AM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.7M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +5.6M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.7M)
N/A U.S. holiday for federal employees on Christmas Eve as financial markets close early
Wednesday, December 25, 2019
N/A U.S.: Christmas Day. Financial markets closed
N/A Marianas: Christmas Day
Thursday, December 26, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 505.3)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -5.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 262.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.1%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1958.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -6.5%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 234K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -18K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1722000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +51K)
9:45 PM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, December 27, 2019
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter U.S. International Investment Position
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2245.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1466.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 868.6K)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3411B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -107B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 446.833M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.085M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 237.297M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.529M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 125.096M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.509M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.6%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.798M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +3.439M)
3:00 AM ET. December Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -2.6%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8479.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 8729.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8479.16. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8281.01.
The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3159.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3228.90. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3189.01. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3159.92.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at 155-00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-05. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-12. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 155-14. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00.
March T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, last-July's low crossing at 127.090 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.309 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 128.174. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.309. First support is December's low crossing at 127.290. Second support is July's low crossing at 127.090.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher. If February extends the rally off October's low, last-April's high crossing at 63.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 61.40. Second resistance is last-April's high crossing at 63.87. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 59.97. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.79.
February heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends last-week's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off the October low, September's high crossing at 206.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 204.08. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 206.18. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 199.36. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.83.
February unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the May 13th high crossing at 173.97 is the next upside target.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 165.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May13th high crossing at 173.97. Second resistance is last-April's high crossing at 177.64. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 165.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 162.37.
February Henry natural gas gapped down and was lower overnight. The low-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.335 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.335. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.527. First support is December's low crossing at 2.169. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 98.05 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 96.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 6th high crossing at 97.40. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. First support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 96.23. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63.
The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends last-week's decline, the December 6th low crossing at 111.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 112.64. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 112.91. First support is the December 6th low crossing at 111.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3001 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 1.3748 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3001. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0204 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0345 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0290. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0345. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0194. Second is November's low crossing at 1.0060.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are still possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 76.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 76.36. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 76.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.74.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0913 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0934. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.0917. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0913.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the December 12th high crossing at $1491.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-September rally crossing at $1431.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 12th high crossing at $1491.60. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1525.20. First support is November's low crossing at $1453.10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at $1431.40.
January silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.257 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 15.842 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.257. Second resistance is the October's high crossing at 18.365. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.530. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.842.
January copper was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-December crossing at 287.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 282.70. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 287.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 279.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.34.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends last-week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $3.90 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.80 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $3.90 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is December's low crossing at $3.71. Second support is September's low crossing at $3.65 3/4.
March wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.34 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.44 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.58 1/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.34. Second support is December's low crossing at $5.16 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.01 3/4-cents at $4.62 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.70 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.43 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at $4.70 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is December's low crossing at $4.23 1/2. Second support is October's low crossing at $4.13 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.46 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.55. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.31 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.22.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.36 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.99 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.47 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.15 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.99 1/4.
January soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $297.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If January extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $303.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 303.00. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $310.00. First support is the December 12th low crossing at $293.10. Second support is December's low crossing at $292.60.
January soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off December's low, May's high crossing at 34.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 34.09. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 34.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 33.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.81.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.30 at $70.68.
February hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If February extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.76 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $68.45 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.76. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $76.62. First support is December's low crossing at $65.40. Second support August's low crossing at $63.67.
February cattle closed up $0.18 at $125.80.
February cattle closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Today's cattle-on-feed report showed on feed at 102%; placements at 105 (bearish); and marketing at 103 (friendly). Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $123.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $123.78. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30.
January Feeder cattle closed down $0.45-cents at $144.28.
January Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.70 would temper the friendly outlook. If January extends last-Friday's rally, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $151.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $146.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $151.31. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.70. Second support is December's low crossing at $139.90.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 14.38 is the next upside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 23.80 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the June high crossing at 13.78 is the next upside target. Closes below 20-day moving average crossing at 13.17 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Friday and posted a new high close for the month. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bullish again signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 69.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
MUCH milder forecasts into early January is clobbering natural gas today.
Argentina dryness is helping beans............with S.Brazil drying out the next week+