KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
My family and I will be leaving Monday night to visit our families for Christmas. I will not be back to update my reports until Thursday morning. Have a Merry Christmas and I will see you Thursday morning.
Tuesday, December 24, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +2.2%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -3.8%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.8%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)
10:00 AM ET. December Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -1)
Shipments Idx (previous -2)
4:30 AM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.7M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +5.6M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.7M)
N/A U.S. holiday for federal employees on Christmas Eve as financial markets close early
Wednesday, December 25, 2019
N/A U.S.: Christmas Day. Financial markets closed
N/A Marianas: Christmas Day
Thursday, December 26, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 505.3)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -5.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 262.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.1%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1958.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -6.5%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 234K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -18K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1722000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +51K)
9:45 PM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, December 27, 2019
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter U.S. International Investment Position
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2245.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1466.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 868.6K)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3411B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -107B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 446.833M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.085M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 237.297M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.529M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 125.096M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.509M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.6%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.798M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +3.439M)
3:00 AM ET. December Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -2.6%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday as it extend this year's rally into record territory.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8479.13 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8743.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8579.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8479.09.
The March S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Monday as it extends this year's rally into uncharted territory. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3159.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3232.70. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3188.82. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3159.83.
The Dow posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,056.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 28,608.46. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,056.92. Second support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 27,637.86.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
March T-bonds closed down 8/32's at 156-00.
March T-bonds closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 155-00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 160-12. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 160-26. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 155-14. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00.
March T-notes closed down 35 pts. at 128.045.
March T-notes closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, July's low crossing at 127.090 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.083 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 130.045. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.175. First support is December's low crossing at 127.290. Second support is July's low crossing at 127.090.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off October's low, last-April's high crossing at 63.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 61.40. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 63.87. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.80.
February heating oil closed higher on Monday as it extends last-week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 206.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 204.08. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 206.18. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 199.43. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.86.
February unleaded gas closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, last-April's high crossing at 176.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 165.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 172.39. Second resistance is last-April's high crossing at 176.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 165.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 162.39.
February Henry natural gas gapped down and closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.335 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.335. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.529. First support is December's low crossing at 2.169. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed lower on Monday but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.17 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 98.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.90 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 97.41. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 98.05. First support is December's low crossing at 96.29. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 96.22.
The March Euro closed higher on Monday but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.58 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last- week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 111.13 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 112.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 112.63. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 112.91. First support is the reaction low crossing at 111.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.
The March British Pound closed lower for the sixth-day in a row on Monday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3000. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3176 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.2830.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Monday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0204 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the month's rally, September's high crossing at 1.0380 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.0302. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.0380. First support is the December 6th low crossing at 1.0158. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0060.
The March Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 76.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 76.36. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 76.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.74. Second support is November's low crossing at 75.08.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Monday as it extends last-week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0913 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0934. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing 0.0917. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0913.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold closed higher on Monday as it extends a seven-week-old trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the December 12th high crossing at $1491.60 would temper the bearish outlook. If February resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-rally at $1431.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 12th high crossing at $1491.60. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1525.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-rally at $1464.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-rally at $1431.40.
January silver closed higher on Monday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.259 marking an upside breakout of the November-December trading range. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends today's rally, November's high crossing at 18.210 is the next upside target. If January resumes the decline off the September 24th high, the 75% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 15.842 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 17.420. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 18.210. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 16.530. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 15.842.
January copper closed higher on Monday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 287.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.34 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 280.74. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 287.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 279.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.34.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up a $0.01-cent at 3.88 1/2.
March corn closed higher in quiet pre-holiday trading on Monday as it extended last-week's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $3.90 1/2 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted and would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at $4.00 later this year. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.80 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $3.90 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is December's low crossing at $3.71. Second support is September's low crossing at $3.65 3/4.
March wheat closed down $0.02 1/4-cents at $5.40.
March wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off December's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.33 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.58 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.58 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.33 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.24 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.03 3/4-cents at $4.58 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends last-week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.70 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at $4.70 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.52. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.45.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up a $0.00 1/2-cents at $5.37 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally higher on Monday as it extends last-week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at $5.48 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.45 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $5.48 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.31 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.22.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed up $0.02 1/2-cents at $9.40 3/4.
March soybeans closed higher on Monday as it extended this month's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off this month's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $9.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.12 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $9.48. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 9.58 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.28 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.12 3/4.
March soybean meal closed up $3.00 at $305.20.
March soybean meal closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a double top might be in or is near. If March renews the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at $288.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $306.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $307.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $312.70. First support is December's low crossing at $296.20. Second support is weekly support crossing at $288.30.
March soybean oil closed down 11-pts. at 33.95.
March soybean oil closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, May's high crossing at 34.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 34.38. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 34.53. First support is 10-day moving average crossing at 33.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.08.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.43 at $70.25.
February hogs closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If February extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $68.58 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.63. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $76.62. First support is December's low crossing at $65.40. Second support August's low crossing at $63.67.
February cattle closed down $0.13 at $125.68.
February cattle closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $123.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $123.94. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30.
January Feeder cattle closed down $0.75-cents at $143.53.
January Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.92 would temper the friendly outlook. If January extends last-Friday's rally, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $151.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $146.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $151.31. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.92. Second support is December's low crossing at $139.90.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.71 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.27 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cocoa closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 23.80 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.49 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the June high crossing at 13.78 is the next upside target. Closes below 20-day moving average crossing at 13.20 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Monday and posted a new high close for the month. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish again signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 69.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
You have a very Merry Christmas and safe travels. See you Thursday!
Very mild temps are pressuring ng prices lower.
Argentina dryness and S.Brazil drying out a bit the next week are a bit bullish for the grains.