INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 30, 2019, 7:12 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, December 30, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November Advance Economic Indicators Report

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. December ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI-Adj (previous 46.3)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET: November Pending Home Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 106.7)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -1.7%)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. December Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous -1.3)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous -2.4)

 



 

 

Tuesday, December 31, 2019  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.2%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -3.4%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.3%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. October U.S. Monthly House Price Index

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous 0.0%)

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.1%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.2%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET: December Consumer Confidence Index

 



 

 

                       Cons Conf Idx (previous 125.5)

 



 

 

                       Expectation Idx (previous 97.9)

 



 

 

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 166.9)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -7.9M)\

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.6M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.7M)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8546.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 8843.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8704.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8546.67.



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3177.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3253.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3220.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3177.98.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this month's decline, November's low crossing at 155-00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-29. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-12. First support is December's low crossing at 155-14. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00.



March T-notes were sharply lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, last-July's low crossing at 127.090 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.234 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.234. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.042. First support is December's low crossing at 127.290. Second support is July's low crossing at 127.090.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



February crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher. If February extends the rally off October's low, last-April's high crossing at 63.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 61.96. Second resistance is last-April's high crossing at 63.87. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.65.



February heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off the October low, last-May's high crossing at 214.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 206.64. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 214.32. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 203.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.35.     



February unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, last-April's high crossing at 177.64 is the next upside target.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 167.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 176.56. Second resistance is last-April's high crossing at 177.64. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 171.26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 167.04.  



February Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.291 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.291. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.498. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.167. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 96.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.98 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the December 6th high crossing at 97.40. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. First support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 96.23. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63.  



The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends last-week's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's rally, October's high crossing at 112.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.73 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 112.64. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 112.91. First support is the December 6th low crossing at 111.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.    



The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Monday's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3138 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes this month's decline, the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.2940. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.



The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0406 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0243 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0345. Second resistance the 75% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0406. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0243. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0204.  



The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 76.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 76.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 76.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.89. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 75.40.  



The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0913 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0925 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0934. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0916. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0913.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at $1525.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1484.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $1525.20. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $1532.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1484.50. Second support is November's low crossing at $1453.10.



March silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the October 25th high crossing at $18.495 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.187 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $18.135. Second resistance is the October's high crossing at $18.495. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.187. Second support is December's low crossing at $16.565. 



March copper was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-December crossing at $289.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $277.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $285.65. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at $287.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $281.84. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $277.25.       



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends a three-week old trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $3.91 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.83 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $3.91. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.83. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.    



March wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.37 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $5.62 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.37 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27. 



March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.09 1/4-cents at $4.79 3/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.88 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.49 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $4.79 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.62 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.49 1/4.   



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.62 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.29 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.55. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.62 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.42 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.29 1/2.      



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.58 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.22 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.48. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.58 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.29 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.22 1/4.    



March soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-Friday's decline, the December 12th low crossing at $297.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $305.80 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is December's high crossing at 307.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $312.70. First support is the December 12th low crossing at $297.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $296.20.    



March soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 35.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 35.39. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 35.79. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34.28. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.88.   



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $0.33 at $70.58. 



February hogs closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.16 would open the door for a larger-degree rally into early-January. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $69.06 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.16. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $76.62. First support is December's low crossing at $65.40. Second support August's low crossing at $63.67.  



February cattle closed down $0.10 at $126.70. 



February cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.36. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30.   

 

January Feeder cattle closed up $0.10-cents at $145.55. 



January Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends Thursday's rally, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $151.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $143.30 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $146.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $151.31. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $143.30. Second support is December's low crossing at $139.90.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Friday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.10 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional gains that would signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.63 is the next downside target.



March cocoa closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 23.80 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.21 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.      



March sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below 20-day moving average crossing at 13.30 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the June high crossing at 13.78 is the next upside target.     



March cotton closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish again signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 70.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.       



Comments
By metmike - Dec. 30, 2019, 11:23 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Tallpine!


Mostly dry weather in S.Brazil the next 10 days seems to be the bullish element pushing beans higher this morning.

Not completely dry or a blocking heat ridge to keep us going straight up. 

Milder weather for natural gas(bearish)...........cold will be focused on the West with only a very brief intrusion farther southeast.