Austrailia drought
18 responses | 3 likes
Started by cliff-e - Jan. 2, 2020, 8:40 a.m.

Possibly a NTR subject but we can't ignore what it's done to wheat and feedgrain production in Austrailia. Also picking up news of greatly reduced Russian grain production.

https://www.vox.com/2019/12/30/21039298/40-celsius-australia-fires-2019-heatwave-climate-change

Comments
By patrick - Jan. 2, 2020, 10:46 a.m.
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Can't really tell from that how the crop will be affected, since it's winter wheat & the last crop is in and the next one not planted, but Australia is #6 in wheat

Top Wheat Producing Countries

  1. China (134,340,630 tonnes)
  2. India (98,510,000 Tonnes) ...
  3. Russia (85,863,132 Tonnes) ...
  4. United States (47,370,880 Tonnes) ...
  5. France (36,924,938 Tonnes) ...
  6. Australia (31,818,744 Tonnes) ...
  7. Canada (29,984,200 Tonnes) ...
  8. Pakistan (26,674,000 Tonnes) ..

    Between this, and all the coral/kelp/fish issues off the east coast, Australia is liable to be going very green. They still get most of their electricity from coal, which will be changing, but everyone is getting off coal so that shouldn't be a huge factor either.
By metmike - Jan. 2, 2020, 4:28 p.m.
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Happy New Decade to you Patrick! Great to read you!

Let's put it into proper, scientific perspective. 


NASA Detects Drop in Global Fires

                   

     https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/nasa-detects-drop-in-global-fires


Note Australia in the bottom right. Blue is less burned area.

https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/globalburnedareamap.png

"Globally, the total acreage burned by fires each year declined by 24 percent between 1998 and 2015, according to a new paper in Science that analyzes NASA’s satellite data, as well as population and socioeconomic information."


metmike: The current fire season is possibly going to be the worst ever for Australia. This is a very bad thing. How do we explain that? Thankfully, we have data to offset scary words about how this is unprecented from the climate emergency and will keep getting worse and worse.

First of all, if you look at the graph of fires in Australia the past 50 year from this  link (can't be copied here) https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/25/factcheck-why-australias-monster-2019-bushfires-are-unprecedented

, you will NOT see a trend higher. In fact, before this year, the past 2 decades featured a LOWER trend. What we do see is isolated, really bad years.........like 1984 and even worse, 1974. This is called random variation which has been happening since long before humans could measure it. With extreme weather. With wildfires. With volcanoes. With all natural disasters and many other events. 

Every single year on this planet there are numerous places setting all time records for something. It's always been that way and always will be that way but extreme weather is not getting worse overall. Sure, the heat waves are a tiny bit hotter in some places in the Summer because of the global increase in temp of 1 deg C(and we hear all about every record heat wave) and cold waves not as cold but we are experiencing the best weather/climate in the last 1,000 years. 

Most life on this greening  planet would prefer a global temperature up to 4 deg. C warmer than this. Only at that point would negatives outweigh the many positives. 

Every year, widespread droughts develop somewhere and go away somewhere else. It's always been that way and is called weather. Today, we only hear about the drought prone locations when the inevitable droughts hit.........Australia and California for instance.

We hear they are caused by the climate crisis and will get worse and worse but then, when they go away it's not news any more and we are never told about the past extreme weather/droughts because that would not make today's weather unprecedented anymore. 

 "Here’s how much recent rains have washed away California’s drought"

"Less than 1 percent of the state is in any kind of drought status, down from 48 percent a year ago"

PUBLISHED: | UPDATED:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/03/07/heres-how-much-recent-rains-have-washed-away-californias-drought/

US Drought MonitorOn Thursday, March 7, 2019, less than 1 percent of California was classified by federal scientists as being in a drought, down from 97 percent the same week three years ago.


"California drought: Past dry periods have lasted more than 200 years, scientists say"

https://www.mercurynews.com/2014/01/25/california-drought-past-dry-periods-have-lasted-more-than-200-years-scientists-say/

But the data here shows it..........the authentic facts vs scary words to convince people of the fake climate emergency to use as ammo for imposing the political, anti science agenda(pretending to be science).


By metmike - Jan. 2, 2020, 4:51 p.m.
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Temperatures have warmed around 1 deg. C in Australia over the last 100 years, especially because the surrounding ocean temperatures have warmed that much:

https://jennifermarohasy.com/2014/01/bureau-confirms-calculating-australias-average-temperature-involves-some-hocus-pocus/

Related image


Is this current record heat unprecedented?

Looky here from 1896.

http://joannenova.com.au/2019/12/hottest-ever-day-in-australia-especially-if-you-ignore-history/




Extreme heat in 1896: Panic stricken people fled the outback on special trains as hundreds die.

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/11/extreme-heat-in-1896-panic-stricken-people-fled-the-outback-on-special-trains-as-hundreds-die/

 Thermometer Farenheit Celcius scale

Photo: Jo Nova

Post by: Lance Pidgeon with assistance from Chris Gillham and others.

It is as if history is being erased. For all that we hear about recent record-breaking climate extremes, records that are equally extreme, and sometimes even more so, are ignored.

By patrick - Jan. 2, 2020, 8:41 p.m.
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Yes, this horrible fire season in Australia is not entirely unprecedented. It's more likely under modern conditions, but there's no particular reason to think it will be a regular event. The 2C warming of the sea off the southeast  - and its effects on the traditional sea life, 95% kelp die off, southward fish migration, and coral bleaching, is clearly more long term and harder to reverse.

In trading terms, we're talking about how Australia will react. Fire, particularly blasting through the most populated part of the country, gets people's attention.

By metmike - Jan. 4, 2020, 4:14 p.m.
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Thanks Patrick. 

I've started a new thread in the NTR section to continue this discussion since I made it more(metmike is guilty) about the fake climate emergency vs trading.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45328/

However, cliff is spot on about the wheat market often trading Australia's weather. I will find some relevant maps and information(to go with what you provided) that show more about this. Like you stated above, in the S.Hemisphere right now, its the same as July,  for us in the N.Hemisphere and the Winter Wheat crop has been harvested and is months from being planted.

They had a very poor crop and this must have led to some of the wheat strength late last year.



By metmike - Jan. 4, 2020, 4:25 p.m.
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Note on tallpines chart the soaring price of wheat coinciding with the drought in Australia!              

  Wk. continuation chart of wheat            

                     

                Started by tallpine - Dec. 18, 2019, 5:06 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/44470/


This may also explain  some of  the incredible strength in the Chicago wheat vs the KC wheat last year. 

                Chicago Wheat  November 25, 2019            

                            7 responses 

                Started by metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 5:03 p.m.         

   https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/43454/


Here was the news that came out earlier in December:

Australia cuts 2019/20 wheat production forecast by nearly 20% due to drought

 

Published:

SYDNEY, (Reuters) – Australia on Tuesday cut its wheat production forecast by nearly 20 percent for the year through June 2020, as an unrelenting drought across the country’s east coast will likely see output fall to an 11-year low.

As Australian farmers were harvesting crops, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) pegged production of the country’s largest rural export at 15.85 million tonnes, down nearly 18 percent from its previous estimate in September of 19.2 million tonnes.

By comparison, last year Canada produced almost 32 million tonnes of wheat.

The forecast is nearly 35 percent below the 10-year average, and means a third consecutive year of lower-than-average production – as output falls to the lowest level since 2008.

The decline has crippled growers and exporting companies, and has provided a hurdle to an economy that is already threatening to stall.

ABARES said the dwindling production was driven by hot, dry weather across major producing regions, which has left many farmers struggling to produce any crops at all.

“We’ve finished harvesting. It was a pretty sad affair, with production about 90 percent down on normal,” said Dan Cooper, a farmer in Caragabal, New South Wales, located 400 km (250 miles) west of Sydney."

By metmike - Jan. 4, 2020, 4:46 p.m.
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Looks like the USDA started lowering estimated Australia wheat production back in early October(same as our April).

The data below was from October:


 https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/ogamaps/print_map.aspx?cmdty=Wheat&attribute=Production&obj_title=Wheat Production


 
Source: Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) Database
http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/
(Updated: October 10th, 2019)

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By metmike - Jan. 4, 2020, 4:47 p.m.
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This is where they grow wheat in Australia:

Australia Wheat

                    


By metmike - Jan. 4, 2020, 4:51 p.m.
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It's obviously been very dry in Australia. Here are the 30-90-180 day  % of normal precip maps for the world.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.90day.figb.gifhttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.180day.figb.gif

By metmike - Jan. 4, 2020, 4:54 p.m.
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The market would not be trading Australia weather closely right now, since we are in between harvest and planting but here it is. 

If the drought is still raging in a few months, the market WILL be trading Australia's weather.


http://wxmaps.org/outlooks.php

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 12:12 p.m.
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Big rains hitting Australia finally, scroll up for that forecast!!!!



By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 12:13 p.m.
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@kannbwx


This helps explain why #Australia's bush fires have been so bad lately. Here's NSW, for example. Rainfall was 56% below avg in 2019, the driest in at least 30 yrs. That follows 41% below in 2018, now the 2nd driest in 30+ yrs. The 2nd half of 2019 was even worse: 70% below avg.

Image

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 12:15 p.m.
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Karen Braun@kannbwx

·

This chart emphasizes how poor precipitation has been in the past two years in NSW, #Australia, relative to normal. The thick black line is 2019 and the pink is 2018, dotted line is the long-term average. Precip was okay in Oct-Nov 2018 & Mar 2019, but otherwise critically low.

Image


By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 5:12 p.m.
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https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/13/australia-fires-heavy-rain-and-cooler-temperatures-unlikely-to-end-bushfire-threat


Australia fires: heavy rain and cooler temperatures 'unlikely' to end bushfire threat

More than a hundred fires are still burning across Australia, with flare-ups on Kangaroo Island leaving residents without power


Heavy rains forecast for this week are unlikely to end Australia’s long-running bushfire threat, despite pockets expected in bushfire-affected areas.

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:54 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Jan. 13: CBOT #wheat futures end at $5.62-1/4 per bushel, down 2.25 cents on the day. But that price is 48 cents higher than a year ago and $1.42 above the same date in 2018 (+34%). It is the highest price for the date in six years.

Image


By metmike - Jan. 15, 2020, 1:07 p.m.
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Huge rains still coming to Eastern Australia:

Australia Rain Forecast Brings Hope of Fire Relief—and Threat to Water Supply  

https://www.wsj.com/articles/australia-rain-forecast-brings-hope-of-fire-reliefand-threat-to-water-supply-11579073009

By metmike - Jan. 16, 2020, 10:34 p.m.
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Still some rains for wheat country but not nearly enough to bust the drought.

By metmike - Jan. 21, 2020, 2:01 p.m.
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Rains will be shifting away/north of key wheat growing areas..........missing the west completely.