Crop calendar for Argentina:
Below is a breakdown of the month-by-month crop production cycles in Argentina(just 2 months below). Go to the link for the rest.
Crop Calendar for Brazil:
It's was pretty dry in much of South America recently. The maps below are for 30 days, 90 days and 180 days % of average precipitation:
The forecasts below come from the GFS/US model. Good rains coming up for dry S.Brazil in the week 2 part of the forecast(starting late week 1).
Hot in Argentina next week.
Monitoring rain/satellite pictures:
Rain amounts 24 hours:
Rain amounts for longer periods globally:
Weekly weather and crop bulletin from Argentina and Brazil:
Rains coming up in week 2, especially in S.Brazil were bearish for beans today........along with poor exports for C, W and S and the tensions in the Middle East.........a triple whammy.
Best rains for S.Brazil and Argentina look to be possibly during the 5-10 day time frame, with heat before then.
So the weather looks a bit more bullish, or less bearish than Friday might be more accurate.
With all the other things going on.........Iran, China and a crop report Friday, news outside of weather can spike us in a direction opposite to the influence of weather.
If we had a mega long lasting dome with no rain, then weather would rule. We don't.
It seems that central Brazil is the only place with good moisture
This promise of rain in week two has not happened for long periods of time, in most of SA
A lot of soy beans have poor stands, not planted due to dry weather etc.
Early planted 95 day beans will be below an average crop. A second crop of cotton or corn will be planted
Corn is bringing very high prices due to a shortage [5.50 USD]
"This promise of rain in week two has not happened for long periods of time, in most of SA"
Actually, the forecast for week 2 rains started moving up closer into late week 1, because of the progression of days, which is one of the reasons for the selling on Friday.
Now we have some of the rains starting in parts of S.Brazil and Argentina later this week.
Not a ton of rain. In fact, I would still put it at normal rains in 40% of the places and below normal in 40% of Argentina/S.Brazil and above normal in 10-20%.
So a bullish tilt.
Starting with Monday's 12z run, rains were added to the forecast in SA.
It does look like at least average rains the next 2 weeks for many locations.
However, the far southeast growing region in Argentina and also S.Brazil will likely be shortchanged.
Week 2 rains completely shut down in Argentina on todays maps, after an event just prior to that with some but not blockbuster rains........more bullish. A closer look shows that maybe S.Brazil rains will shut down too early in week 2. So the weather could be getting more bullish over a large production area during a key time frame.
The 12z run of the GFS ensemble had more week 2 rains, especially for S. Brazil!
That came out just after 11am.
bunch of great info MM....thanks
Good rains to S.Brazil and Argentina in week 1 now and starting to fall.
Then dry in week 2.
12z GFS model looked the same to drier, may be helping beans bounce back, especially with week 2 turning completely dry again.
Market reaction to the crop report mostly.
Weather in Argentina and S.Brazil is turning more bullish for beans and corn.
Some rains the next 5 days, maybe 60-70% coverage of 1 inch rains?
Then almost no rains during the 5-16 day period..........so moisture stress will be increasing!
The low early this evening for SH was the high from Friday........almost a gap higher.
USDA crop report Jan 10, 2020
7 responses |
Started by metmike - Jan. 10, 2020, 12:41 p.m.
I still think that the dry weather resuming after this week will be seen as bullish for beans but the near term rains, which will be good for some spots but not others has apparently been seen as bearish.........along with last Fridays USDA report and longs covering.
This weeks rains have ended for S.Brazil.
I don't see much rain in the next 2 weeks for S.Brazil. This will cause soils to dry out and stress on the crop there.
There is some rain for Argentina. Not alot but some rain.
Beans have obviously not been trading the drier weather coming up for S.Brazil.
I will be suprized if we can keep going lower.
Grains finally reacted positively.
Dry in S.Brazil the next 12 days is bullish but beans were not leading the rally most of the day.
Not much rain for S.Brazil for around 12 days, with soils drying out(but no major heat) then rains return.
There is a big system for N.Argentina which is raining on them right now but will be gone soon, then mostly dry for quite awhile.........weeks??
Looks to me like the biggest rains in far N.Argentina early this week are falling just north of the key soybean production areas and the lions share of crop production will get short changed.
Some of it will get into the dry western parts of S.Brazil before it dries up.
A new band of t-shwrs has formed farther south and may hit more dry Argentina beans........maybe thats pressuring beans here.
Central and Northern Argentina soybeans getting a huge rain at the moment.
Week 2 rains in S.Brazil are getting closer and have increased to over 3 inches.
The big cluster of t-shwrs that bombed N/C Argentina overnight is headed into very dry Western.Rio Grande Du Sul. It will probably bring some nice rains in the west, maybe central but they dry up/weaken/die out as it tracks farther north/northeast.
Soybeans big reversal up on Friday was negated today. Big rains in Argentina overnight +adding a bunch of rain to the S.Brazil week 2 forecast turned the weather from bullish to bearish.
For soybeans, the weather is just not bullish enough in SA to bail the beans out from bearish fundamentals as presented in the last USDA crop report. The next month is the key time frame for beans(flowering will be finishing, then we see pod filling).
If we're going to cut yields down there by a great deal we need the pattern to get a big more bullish.
Rains in most of Brazil are good but not enough in S.Brazil which has been on the dry side and needs much more rain(but temps have not been hot and with the extra CO2 in the air, crops, especially beans are doing MUCH bettr under this same weather if it were 40 years ago and MUCH, MUCH better if we still had the very low/unfavorable amount of CO2 in the air for crops.
Argentina is also not getting enough rain for optimal yields but there has been some rain and there is no blocking dome of high pressure that would turn the big speculators into buyers vs sellers.
Weather is bullish for beans in Argentina the next 2 weeks. Not much rain.
For S.Brazil a bit bullish on US model, not as bullish Euro model.
Last model run had more rain, especially on the GFS ens for Argentina.
Most of Brazil gets decent rains but that same area that has been dry..............Argentina and S.Brazil(especially Rio Grande Du Sul) will struggle to get just average rains.
No change in the SA forecast today.
The latest models have added a ton of rain to dry Argentina during the 6-10 day time frame.
Latest/just updated 12z GFS ensemble below:
Still plenty of rain for SA and bearish for beans.
S. Brazil is going to dry out a bit the next weeks........especially Rio Grande Du Sul which will struggle to get an inch of rain the next 2 weeks.
They produce 16% of the Brazil soybeans in RGD.
By metmike - Feb. 10, 2020, 8:06 p.m.
Getting late in the SA growing season for a serious problem to the crops. USDA report out on Tuesday will be the main item.
USDA report Feb 10
4 responses |
Started by metmike - Feb. 11, 2020, 12:06 p.m.
USDA decreased US stocks but there was a big increase in world stocks and Brazil production.....for beans.
Other than some dryness at times in S.Brazil, this past growing season has featured widespread, robust rains across most of the country.
Big rains the next few days for at least the northeast half of the Argentina beans, possibly coming up short in the far southwestern parts.
Those rains move into S.Brazil next week but dry up as they go north.
Those areas mentioned above have had below average rains this growing season. If not for the huge increase in CO2 the past 100 years, crop conditions would have deteriorated much more. Increased CO2, besides acting as atmospheric fertilizer also causes plants to be more water efficient. They don't need to open their stomata as wide or as often to let CO2 in. As a result, they lose less water/moisture from evapotranspiration. Soybeans are a C3 plant. C3 plants benefit the most from the increase in CO2.
The preceding discussion has presented the average effects of elevated CO2, but obscures important patterns of difference in response among plant species. One of the most important determinants of species differences in response to elevated CO2 is photosynthetic type. Most plant species (~90%) utilize a photosynthetic process known as C3 photosynthesis. Other species use either of two physiologically distinct processes known as C4 and CAM photosynthesis (Figure 2). C4 plants include most tropical and sub-tropical grasses and several important crops, including maize (corn), sugar cane, sorghum, and the millets. There has therefore been considerably more research on the responses to elevated CO2 in C4 than in CAM plants.
Figure 2: Each plant species utilizes one of several distinct physiological variants of photosynthesis mechanisms, including the variants known as C3 and C4 photosynthesis.
"Current evidence suggests that the concentrations of atmospheric CO2 predicted for the year 2100 will have major implications for plant physiology and growth. Under elevated CO2 most plant species show higher rates of photosynthesis, increased growth, decreased water use and lowered tissue concentrations of nitrogen and protein. Rising CO2 over the next century is likely to affect both agricultural production and food quality. The effects of elevated CO2 are not uniform; some species, particularly those that utilize the C4 variant of photosynthesis, show less of a response to elevated CO2 than do other types of plants. Rising CO2 is therefore likely to have complex effects on the growth and composition of natural plant communities."
Soybeans are a C3 plant as are 85% of plants. C3 plants benefit the most from elevated CO2 levels.........up to more than double the current atmospheric level.
Corn is a C4 plant.
Rains have NOW shut down for all of Argentina and S.Brazil and some of C.Brazil............for at least 10 days, maybe longer.
Too late to hurt the beans.
Maybe some late planted beans but March for SA is like September in the US/N.Hemisphere growing season.
Good weather for harvesting.
There is some talk about Argentina gov't having difficulty paying gov't debt. The best way is to raise the needed revenue is an export tax on Soy, wheat and corn. Farmers have threathened to stop selling as rising costs and now increased taxes make it hard to make any money
Other than a general farm strike by Argentina farmers exporters are confident they will be able to access sufficient volume for export contracts
That is not a wild and unsubstantiated post
After doing more checking, it does appear that dryness the next 2 weeks WILL hurt soybeans in Argentina.
Temperatures will be HOT too!