South America January/February
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Started by metmike - Jan. 3, 2020, 10:38 p.m.

Crop calendar for Argentina:

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Argentina-Crop-Cycles


Argentina Month-By-Month Crop Cycles

Below is a breakdown of the month-by-month crop production cycles in Argentina(just  2 months below). Go to the link for the rest.

January

  • Early corn in northern Argentina approaching maturity.
  • Corn moving from pollination to grain filling in central Argentina.
  • By end of month, some early corn and sunflowers are starting to be harvested.
  • Finish wheat harvest by early January.
  • Finish planting double crop soybeans by early January.
  • Full season soybeans flowering and starting to set pods.
  • Maximum summer temperatures.
  • Summer rains usually abundant, but can have dry spells.

 

February

  • More corn and sunflowers now being harvested.
  • Corn in central Argentina entering grain filling phase.
  • Full season soybeans setting and filling pods.
  • Double crop soybeans flowering.
  • Sunflower harvest in full swing.
  • Temperatures can still be very hot, but starting to cool by end of month.
  • Rainfall usually getting lighter.
Comments
By metmike - Jan. 3, 2020, 10:39 p.m.
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Global Crop Production Maps by Region

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/global_cropprod.aspx

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/ssa/AR_Delegation/Argentina_soybeans_department_2014_2017.jpg                                    

By metmike - Jan. 3, 2020, 10:41 p.m.
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Crop Calendar for Brazil:

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Brazil-Crop-Cycles


January

 

  • Soybeans flowering and setting pods. 
  • Some very early soybeans in central Brazil may be harvested this month.
  • First harvested soybeans shipped to processors.
  • Continue spraying to control soybean rust.
  • Corn in grain filling phase.
  • Peak of the rainy season, rains 2-3 times a day in central Brazil, overcast, very hot and humid, greenhouse-like conditions.

February

  • Main pod filling month for soybeans.
  • Early soybeans being harvested, corn harvest begins.
  • Harvested soybeans arrive at ports, soybean exports begin by early February.
  • Soybean rust control now focused on later maturing soybeans.
  • Safrinha (second corn crop) planted after early soybeans are harvested.
  • Can still be very rainy in central Brazil, rainfall less frequent in southern Brazil.
By metmike - Jan. 3, 2020, 10:41 p.m.
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  • https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean_prod_2015.jpg

                                        

                                    


By metmike - Jan. 3, 2020, 10:45 p.m.
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It's was pretty dry in much of South America recently. The maps below are for 30 days, 90 days and 180 days % of average precipitation:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.90day.figb.gif



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.180day.figb.gif

                                    


By metmike - Jan. 3, 2020, 10:48 p.m.
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The forecasts below come from the GFS/US model. Good rains coming up for dry S.Brazil in the week 2 part of the forecast(starting late week 1).

Hot in Argentina next week.

http://wxmaps.org/outlooks.php










                               

By metmike - Jan. 3, 2020, 10:48 p.m.
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By metmike - Jan. 3, 2020, 10:53 p.m.
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Weekly weather and crop bulletin from Argentina and Brazil:

https://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Weekly/Wwcb/wwcb.pdf

By metmike - Jan. 3, 2020, 10:55 p.m.
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CropProphet@CropProphet


Today we look in #Brazil at Rio Grande Do Sol. Only 42% of normal precip in the past 30 days.   Max Temps are, on average, 10 degrees above normal in the past 7.   Difficult conditions for #corn & #soybeans.  GFS & ECMWF agree on rain in wk2.   #agro #grains  #brazilcorn

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By metmike - Jan. 3, 2020, 10:57 p.m.
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CropProphet@CropProphet


47% of normal rain in prior 14 days across #Brazil 1st crop #corn.  Some regions have received even less.  72% of normal rain over the last 30 days (not shown).  #agro  #brazilcorn #grains

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By metmike - Jan. 3, 2020, 11:02 p.m.
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Rains coming up in week 2, especially in S.Brazil were bearish for beans today........along with poor exports for C, W and S and the tensions in the Middle East.........a triple whammy. 

By metmike - Jan. 4, 2020, 8:04 p.m.
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Best rains for S.Brazil and Argentina look to be possibly during the 5-10 day time frame, with heat before then.

So the weather looks a bit more bullish, or less bearish than Friday might be more accurate.

With all the other things going on.........Iran, China and a crop report Friday, news outside of weather can spike us in a direction opposite to the influence of weather.

If we had a mega long lasting dome with no rain, then weather would rule. We don't.

By wglassfo - Jan. 5, 2020, 10:37 a.m.
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It seems that central Brazil is the only place with good moisture

This promise of rain in week two has not happened for long periods of time, in most of SA

A lot of soy beans have poor stands, not planted due to dry weather etc.

Early planted 95 day beans will be below an average crop. A second crop of cotton or corn will be planted

Corn is bringing very high prices due to a shortage [5.50 USD]

By metmike - Jan. 5, 2020, 8:14 p.m.
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"This promise of rain in week two has not happened for long periods of time, in most of SA"

Actually, the forecast for week 2 rains started moving up closer into late week 1, because of the progression of days,  which is one of the reasons for the selling on Friday. 

Now we have some of the rains starting in parts of S.Brazil and Argentina later this week.

Not a ton of rain. In fact, I would still put it at normal rains in 40% of  the places and below normal in 40% of Argentina/S.Brazil and above normal in 10-20%.


So a bullish tilt.

By metmike - Jan. 7, 2020, 11:41 a.m.
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Starting with Monday's 12z run, rains were added to the forecast in SA.

It does look like at least average rains the next 2 weeks for many locations.

However, the far southeast growing region in Argentina and also S.Brazil will likely be shortchanged.

By metmike - Jan. 8, 2020, 12:19 p.m.
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Week 2 rains completely shut down in Argentina on todays maps, after an event just prior to that with some but not blockbuster rains........more bullish. A closer look shows that maybe S.Brazil rains will shut down too early  in week 2. So the weather could be getting more bullish over a large production area during a key time frame.

By metmike - Jan. 8, 2020, 12:42 p.m.
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The 12z run of the GFS ensemble had  more week 2 rains, especially for S. Brazil!

That came out just after 11am.

By mcfarm - Jan. 8, 2020, 1:58 p.m.
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bunch of great info MM....thanks

By metmike - Jan. 10, 2020, 12:05 p.m.
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YW mcfarm,

Good rains to S.Brazil and Argentina in week 1 now and starting to fall.

Then dry in week 2.

By metmike - Jan. 10, 2020, 12:22 p.m.
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12z GFS model looked the same to drier, may be helping beans bounce back, especially with week 2 turning completely dry again. 

Market reaction to the crop report mostly.

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2020, 9:23 p.m.
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Weather in Argentina and S.Brazil is turning more bullish for beans and corn.


Some rains the next  5 days, maybe 60-70% coverage of 1 inch rains?

Then almost no rains during the 5-16 day period..........so moisture stress will be increasing!


The low early this evening for SH was the high from Friday........almost a gap higher.

USDA crop report Jan 10, 2020            

                            7 responses |                

                Started by metmike - Jan. 10, 2020, 12:41 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45656/

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 5:32 p.m.
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@kannbwx

·

Harvest of #soybeans has begun in Mato Grosso, #Brazil. As of Jan. 10, some 1.8% of the crop was harvested, compared with around 5% a year earlier and a recent average of 2.6%.

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By metmike - Jan. 15, 2020, 10:39 a.m.
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I still think that the dry weather resuming after this week will be seen as bullish for beans but the near term rains, which will be good for some spots but not others has apparently been seen as bearish.........along with last Fridays USDA report and longs covering.

By metmike - Jan. 16, 2020, 8:05 p.m.
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This weeks rains have ended for S.Brazil.

I don't see much rain in the next 2 weeks for S.Brazil. This will cause soils to dry out and stress on the crop there.

There is some rain for Argentina. Not alot but some rain.

Beans have obviously not been trading the drier weather coming up for S.Brazil.

I will be suprized if we can keep going lower.

By metmike - Jan. 17, 2020, 3:05 p.m.
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Grains finally reacted positively. 

Dry in S.Brazil the next 12 days is bullish but beans were not leading the rally most of the day.

By metmike - Jan. 20, 2020, 8:34 p.m.
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Not much rain for S.Brazil for around 12 days, with soils drying out(but no major heat) then rains return.

There is a big system for N.Argentina which is raining on them right now but will be gone soon, then mostly dry for quite awhile.........weeks??

By metmike - Jan. 20, 2020, 9:21 p.m.
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Looks to me like the biggest rains in far N.Argentina  early this week are falling just north of the key soybean production areas and the lions share of crop production will get short changed.

Some of it will get into the dry western parts of S.Brazil before it dries up. 

By metmike - Jan. 20, 2020, 10:18 p.m.
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A new band of t-shwrs has formed farther south and may hit more dry Argentina beans........maybe thats pressuring beans here.


By metmike - Jan. 21, 2020, 1:08 a.m.
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By metmike - Jan. 21, 2020, 10:36 a.m.
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Week 2 rains in S.Brazil are getting closer and have increased to over 3 inches.

The big cluster of t-shwrs that bombed N/C Argentina overnight is headed into very dry Western.Rio Grande Du Sul. It will probably bring some nice rains in the west, maybe central but they dry up/weaken/die out as it tracks farther north/northeast. 

By metmike - Jan. 21, 2020, 12:46 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Mato Grosso, #Brazil: 5.86% of #soybeans harvested as of Friday, <1% below average but well behind ~12% a year ago. 1.9% #corn planted, behind avg of 3.42% and 6%+ last year. Nationally, Brazil's soy harvest was 1.8% complete on Monday vs 6.1% last year (via AgRural).

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By metmike - Jan. 21, 2020, 6:59 p.m.
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Soybeans big reversal up on Friday was negated today. Big rains in Argentina overnight  +adding a bunch of rain to the S.Brazil week 2 forecast turned the weather from bullish to bearish.