KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, January 6, 2020
9:45 AM ET. December US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 51.6)
11:00 AM ET. December Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 51.6)
Tuesday, January 7, 2020
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.9%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +4.4%)
8:30 AM ET. November U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -47.20B)
Exports (USD) (previous 207.12B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Imports (USD) (previous 254.32B)
Imports, M/M% (previous -1.7%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -2.8%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +7.8%)
10:00 AM ET. December ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 53.9)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 51.6)
Prices Idx (previous 58.5)
Employment Idx (previous 55.5)
New Orders Idx (previous 57.1)
10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -7.8M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.8M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as stocks continue to setback as tensions remain high in the Middle East. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8643.39 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 8907.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8643.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8417.25.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight due to heightened tensions in the Middle East. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3202.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3259.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3202.31. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3136.28.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, December's high crossing at 160-12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 158-24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the December 12th high crossing at 159-02. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-12. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 155-05. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00.
March T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 130.045 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 128.194 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 129.210. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 130.045. First support is December's low crossing at 127.290. Second support is July's low crossing at 127.090.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low.However the low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 65.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 64.72. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 65.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.30.
February heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off the October low, last-May's high crossing at 214.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 210.56. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 214.32. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.12.
February unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 188.45 is the next upside target.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 169.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 179.43. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 188.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 169.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 165.25.
February Henry natural gas was higher overnight. The high-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.244 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.244. Second resistance is the December 16th high crossing at 2.351. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.083. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.82 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 23rd high crossing at 97.41. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 96.02. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63.
The March Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, last-August's high crossing at 114.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 112.91. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 114.20. First support is the December 6th low crossing at 111.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.
The March British Pound was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3034 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 1.3548 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is December's low crossing at 1.2940. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0277 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0461 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0406. Second resistance the 87% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0461. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0314. Second is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0277.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 77.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 77.23. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 77.97. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.56. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.24.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 0.0934 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0929 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0934. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0948. First support is December's low crossing at 0.0916. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0913.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold gapped up and sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1521.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1590.90. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1521.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1498.40.
March silver was higher overnight as it renewed the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the September 24th high crossing at $18.930 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.409 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is overnight high crossing at $18.550. Second resistance is the the September 24th high crossing at $18.930. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $17.895. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.409.
March copper was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $272.19 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-December crossing at $289.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $285.65. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at $287.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $272.19. Second support is December's low crossing at $262.05.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends a four-week old trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $3.92 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.84 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $3.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.84 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.43 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March extends the rally off September's low, last-June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.67 1/2. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.43. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.29 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.10 1/4-cents at $4.75.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.57 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $4.96 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.71 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.57 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends last-Friday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.37 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.45 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.37 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.31 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.33 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $9.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.58 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $9.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.33 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.28 3/4.
March soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends December's trading range. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-Friday's decline, the December 12th low crossing at $297.40 is the next downside target. Closes above December's high crossing at $307.90 would renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is December's high crossing at 307.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $312.70. First support is the December 12th low crossing at $297.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $296.20.
March soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 35.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 35.67. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 35.79. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34.71. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.74.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $3.00 at $68.55.
February hogs closed limit down on Friday and closed below the 20-day moving average crossing at $69.66 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends today's decline, December's low crossing at $65.40 is the next downside target. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $74.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $72.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 74.10. First support is today's low crossing at $68.55. Second support is December's low crossing at $65.40.
February cattle closed down $1.05 at $124.73.
February cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.87. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30.
March Feeder cattle closed down $1.05-cents at $142.67.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $143.57 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at $140.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $146.93. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $147.40. First support is December's low crossing at $140.55. Second support is November's low crossing at $138.62.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 13.46 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 23.80 is the next downside target.
March sugar posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Thursday's close below 20-day moving average crossing at 13.39 confirmed that a top has been posted. If March extends Thursday's decline, December's low crossing at 12.73 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off October's low, the June high crossing at 13.78 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 70.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thank You Tallpine!
Weather in S.Brazil and Argentina looks a bit drier again this morning...........a bit more bullish beans(less bearish).
Mixed temps on guidance for natural gas, overall just a smidgen colder overnight......however, a longer term threat for a shift to SUSTAINED much colder looks less to me.