INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 8, 2020, 4:23 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, January 9, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 222K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 1728000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +5K)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 540K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 332K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 333.3K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3192B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -58B)

                       

12:00 PM ET. December Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



Friday, January 10, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter GDP by State



8:30 AM ET. December U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +160K; previous +266K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.5%; previous 3.5%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.29)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.07)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.25%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.1%; previous +3.1%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)



                       Government Payrolls (previous +12K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +254K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



10:00 AM ET. November Monthly Wholesale Trade



                       Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.1%)



12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The March NASDAQ 100 posted a huge key reversal up on Wednesday after remarks by President Trump suggested the U.S. and Iran were refraining from further military action in the aftermath of attacks on U.S. bases overnight in retaliation for last week’s killing of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani by American forces. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8698.24 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8947.50. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8698.24. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8455.01.   



The March S&P 500 posted a huge key reversal up on Wednesday as it appears that tensions in the Middle East appear to be moderating. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3213.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3259.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3213.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3146.07.  



The Dow closed higher on Wednesday. At the same time today's rally was restrained by a decline in Boeing shares after on of their jets operated by Ukraine International Airlines crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends last-year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,428.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 28,782.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,428.01. Second support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 27,988.72.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed down 30/32's at 156-15.



March T-bonds posted a key reversal down on Wednesday and closed below the 10-day moving average crossing at 156-27 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, January's low crossing at 155-05 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 160-12 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-12. First support is January's low crossing at 155-05. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00. 



March T-notes closed down 100-pts. At 128.270.



March T-notes posted a huge key reversal down on Wednesday signaling a likely end to the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.205 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 130.175 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 130.060. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.175. First support is December's low crossing at 127.290. Second support is July's low crossing at 127.090.       



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



February crude oil posted a huge key reversal down on Wednesday and posted their lowest close in nearly four weeks as worries surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict appear to subsided for now. Data from the energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed an unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories this past week, along with a sizable increases in gasoline and distillate stockpiles that contributed to today's loss. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 65.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 68.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.48. Second support is the November 29th low crossing at 55.01.  



February heating oil posted a huge key reversal down on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, last-May's high crossing at 214.32 is the next upside target.First resistance is today's high crossing at 211.95. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 214.32. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.24. Second support is December's low crossing at 186.68.



February unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 165.52 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 156.22 is the next downside target. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 188.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is Today's high crossing at 180.11. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 188.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 165.52. Second support is December's low crossing at 156.22.



February Henry natural gas closed slightly low on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.230 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.230. Second resistance is the December 16th high crossing at 2.351. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.062. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.        



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.15 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 23rd high crossing at 97.41. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 94.96.



The March Euro closed lower on Wednesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.71 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the December 20th low crossing at 111.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 112.93. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 114.20. First support is the December 20th low crossing at 111.30. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.



The March British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 1.3548 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.2830.



The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0293 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.0461 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0420. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.0461. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0293. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0221.



The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the October 2018 high crossing at 78.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 77.23. Second resistance is the October 2018 high crossing at 78.84. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.72. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.37. 



The March Japanese Yen posted a key reversal down on Wednesday signaling an end to the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 0.0916 is the next downside target. If March extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 0.0934 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0934. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0948. First support is December's low crossing 0.0916. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0913.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



February gold posted a huge key reversal down on Wednesday signaling a likely end to the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1536.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1613.30. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50. First support is the 10-day morning crossing at $1536.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average at $1507.90.



March silver closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.557 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the September 24th high crossing at 18.930 is the next upside target. First resistance is Today's high crossing at 18.895. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.930. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 18.042. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.557.



March copper closed higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 289.45 is the next upside target. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 285.65. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 289.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.70. Second support is December's low crossing at 262.05. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed unchanged at 3.83 1/2. 



March corn closed unchanged on Wednesday. The corn market has been the weakest of the three major gains in its post-harvest rally. One factor might be that since 2012, corn has posted trend line yields or better every year with the possible exception of 2019. At the same time carryout has been somewhat burdensome while export demand has been fairly consistent expect for 2019, which was lower due to increase competition from South America and abundant world wide wheat supplies. Since corn has had an anemic port-harvest rally along with expectations that the USDA will make only minor changes to 2019's crop size and carryout will remain at or above current levels, I am less optimistic of a significant rally ahead of seasonal weakness into February. If the USDA does give us a friendly report on Friday, upside potential is likely to be limited to a possible retest of October's high of $4.11 3/4. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. This week's closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.85 1/4 has tempered the near-term friendly outlook leaving the door open for sideways to lower prices near-term if Friday's USDA report is termed neutral to bearish. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $3.92 are needed to renew the rally off December's low while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at $4.00. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $3.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is today's low crossing at $3.82 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.    



March wheat closed up $0.03 1/2-cents at $5.53 3/4.  



March wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.45 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, last-June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.45 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.30 1/2.      



March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.05-cents at $4.80.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.64 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $4.96 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.64 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.46 1/2.   



March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.01-cents at $5.47 3/4. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $5.62 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $5.42 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.41 1/4.      



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans closed up $0.02 3/4-cents at $9.46 3/4.



March soybeans closed higher on Wednesday. Since early-December, March soybeans have rallied $0.87 1/2 peaking out with last-Thursday's high of 9.61. While the results of Friday's monthly supply-demand report remain unknown at this time, barring a surprisingly bullish report, it does appear that the market has largely priced in the trade agreements with Mexico, Canada and China and expectations of either a lower yield estimate or carryout of a combination there of. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.37 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $9.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $9.58 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.37 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.28 1/2.    



March soybean meal closed up $0.30 at $301.60. 



March soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday while extending December's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-Friday's decline, the December 12th low crossing at $297.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 18th high crossing at $307.90 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the December 18th high crossing at $307.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $312.70. First support is the December 12th low crossing at $297.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $296.20.    



March soybean oil closed down 21-pts. at 34.53. 



March soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at 35.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 35.67. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 35.79. First support is 20-day moving average crossing at 34.03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.40.        

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $0.20 at $69.03. 



February hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at $69.92 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends last-week's decline, December's low crossing at $65.40 is the next downside target. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $74.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $72.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 74.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at $67.55. Second support is December's low crossing at $65.40.   



February cattle closed down $0.18 at $126.35. 



February cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed down $1.40-cents at $146.53. 



March Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at $147.40 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $141.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $146.93. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $147.40. First support is December's low crossing at $140.55. Second support is November's low crossing at $138.62.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Wednesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.91 as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 11.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.98 would confirm that a low has been posted.



March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 23.80 is the next downside target.       



March sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-April's high crossing at 14.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 13.01 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. 



March cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 70.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 9, 2020, 12:18 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine!


NG weather is turning bullish.


Dry Argentina and S.Brazil rain forecasts are important. Enough rain coming. Some rain on the way but the driest areas may miss out on the best rains.