KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 9, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 222K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1728000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +5K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 540K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 332K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 333.3K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3192B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -58B)
12:00 PM ET. December Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, January 10, 2020
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter GDP by State
8:30 AM ET. December U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +160K; previous +266K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.5%; previous 3.5%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.29)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.07)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.25%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.1%; previous +3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +12K)
Private Payroll (previous +254K)
Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. November Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.1%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as worries over Iran and China begin to fade. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8727.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 8993.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8727.19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8472.21.
The March S&P 500 closed higher overnight following Wednesday's key reversal up as it extends last year's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3220.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3271.70. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3220.68. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3150.76.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Wednesday's decline, January's low crossing at 155-05 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 160-13 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-13. First support is January's low crossing at 155-05. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00.
March T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's key reversal down. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.204 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 130.175 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 130.060. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.045. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.204. Second support is December's low crossing at 127.290.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's key reversal down.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends Wednesday's key reversal down, the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 65.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 68.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.56. Second support is the November 29th low crossing at 55.01.
February heating oil was overnight as it extends Wednesday's key reversal down. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 194.33 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 202.07 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 202.07. Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 211.77. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 214.32. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 194.33. Second support is December's low crossing at 185.67.
February unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's key reversal down. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 166.61 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 172.48 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 181.14. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 188.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 166.61. Second support is December's low crossing at 157.36.
February Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.223 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.223. Second resistance is the December 16th high crossing at 2.351. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.083. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.15 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.65 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.15. Second resistance is the December 23rd high crossing at 97.41. First support is December's low crossing at 96.02. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63.
The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the December 20th low crossing at 111.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.09 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is December's high crossing at 112.93. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 114.20. First support is the December 20th low crossing at 111.31. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.
The March British Pound was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3047 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 1.3548 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is December's low crossing at 1.2940. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0297 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0461 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0406. Second resistance the 87% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0461. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0297. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0224.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 77.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 77.23. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 77.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.95.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower overnight following Wednesday's key reversal down. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 0.0916 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0924 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0934. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0948. First support is December's low crossing at 0.0916. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0913.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's key reversal down. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1541.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $1613.30. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1541.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1512.20.
March silver was lower overnight following Wednesday's key reversal down. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.622 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the September 24th high crossing at $18.930 is the next upside target.First resistance is Wednesday's highcrossing at $18.895. Second resistance is the the September 24th high crossing at $18.930. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.622. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.410.
March copper was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-December crossing at $289.05 is the next upside target. If March extends decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $272.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $285.65. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at $287.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $272.93. Second support is December's low crossing at $262.05.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-week's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $3.92 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at $3.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $3.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $3.82 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rebound off the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.47 1/2. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, last-June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.47 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.67 1/2. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.47 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.31 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.05-cents at $4.80.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.64 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $4.96 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.64 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.46 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.42 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.45 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.42 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.31 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $9.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.39 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.58 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $9.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.39 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.28 3/4.
March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends December's trading range. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above December's high crossing at $307.90 would renew the rally off December's low. If March extends last-Friday's decline, the December 12th low crossing at $297.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 307.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $312.70. First support is the December 12th low crossing at $297.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $296.20.
March soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 35.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 35.67. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 35.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.48.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.20 at $69.03.
February hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at $69.92 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends last-week's decline, December's low crossing at $65.40 is the next downside target. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $74.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $72.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 74.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at $67.55. Second support is December's low crossing at $65.40.
February cattle closed down $0.18 at $126.35.
February cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30.
March Feeder cattle closed down $1.40-cents at $146.53.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at $147.40 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $141.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $146.93. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $147.40. First support is December's low crossing at $140.55. Second support is November's low crossing at $138.62.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Wednesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.91 as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 11.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.98 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 23.80 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-April's high crossing at 14.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 13.01 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
March cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 70.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks Tallpine!
Beans:
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm
Export sales were not good )-:
Plus there are some huge rains (on the European model especially) for dry areas of S.Brazil and Argentina which will be commencing now.
Natural gas: The European model came out much milder overnight and caused tons of selling pressure immediately, shortly after midnight.