1st quarter prediction
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Started by bear - Jan. 9, 2020, 9:51 a.m.

once again i expect gdp to be very weak in the first quarter of the year.  

this is what i call the obamacare effect.  people open their new insurance statements, see the increase in cost, and it causes folks to pull back on their spending for a few months.  (renember, even if you are not on the ACA, about all insurance policies now roll out their new policy/pricing as the year rolls over.  like my wifes employer, who sends out the forms/info in november, to inform you of signup/pricing, etc for the new year).  

the only positive for retailers in the first quarter will be all the folks using their gift cards from Xmas.  

btw,  our policies/pricing was up far too much.  so that will hit our "other" spending until april or may.  

By metmike - Jan. 9, 2020, 10:52 a.m.
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Thanks bear!

Never thought of it that way but it makes sense.

By Richard - Jan. 10, 2020, 9:22 a.m.
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I disagree. I think the 1st quarter will be great. Money supply is running  hot.

By bear - Jan. 10, 2020, 11:02 a.m.
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btw... 4th qrt projections have been revised upward the last few weeks.