Since the Tuesday 6Z run, the GFS has been showing cat 1-2 H hits anywhere from the FL Panhandle to MS/far E LA 6/14-5. Also, the last 2 CDN runs have shown a strong TS to possibly borderlne cat 1 H though it doesn't hit the N GOM coast til 6/16. Despite these, the Euro has shown nothing, Is this a fake or is it real? Anyone have a guess? If real, is the GFS too powerful? Climo does say that 6/11-20 is about as active as any period for W Caribbean tropical cylcone geneses and much more active than May. So, a nontrivial possibility exists though it could easily still be a phantom.
Out of 51 members, the 0Z Euro ensemble has all of two members with a tropical low in the GOM that gets down to 1004 mb or lower. Actually, they both get to 1000 mb or lower. But the key is that we're talking only 4% of the members with a low that gets down to 1004 mb or lower late next week in the GOM.
Where do you get the individual Euro ensemble members from?
This is a good one and it is free:
For others, keep in mind that not all of these tracks are of tropical cyclones.
Better more generic link to latest run available at this website:
If you click on this map, you can zoom in greatly.
Not much change since I started this thread except maybe calling it a GFS/Canadian TX-FL 6/14-6 threat. The Euro still says no. So, we have a true model battle between a "genesis shy" Euro and a "genesis happy" GFS/CDN. Is there a genesis "just right" model we can semi-rely on?
Thanks much Larry,
I look forward to playing around with those models over the weekend.
How soon after the new run comes out are they updated?
What about the Euro ensemble link with individual members that you sent the other day?
The 12Z Euro ensemble tracks are already out here: https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks
If you then click on the map, you'll then see a closeup, which shows only 1 of ~50 members with a weak N GOM tropical cyclone. So, the 12Z Euro ens supports its quiet operational run.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of showers and thunderstorms has persisted over the southwestern Caribbean Sea for the past several hours. This activity is associated with a tropical wave over northwestern Venezuela and a surface trough located just east of Nicaragua interacting with a large upper-level trough. Little development of this area of disturbed weather is expected over the next few days due to interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. However, environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for some limited development when the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
The above is the first time the NHC has even mentioned this GFS threat, which is now for the far W GOM/MX/TX.
There are several pay sites that offer a lot more euro eps and most of them are NOT expensive... under 350/ yr
YW, Mike. This is now Invest 91 and it looks a bit more active, but there's now pretty much no model support for it to become a TD+. Instead, the model consensus has a weak low in the Bay of Campeche brigning rain to MX/TX. Let's see if this is what happens.
Larry is the best, following these tropical systems.
Here is another excellent source: