Happy New Decade! Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history.......every day of the new decade!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
NEW: 768 hour outlook(30+ days). Several frigid blasts........but its a low skill forecasting product.
Heavy rain event Ohio River Valley, to far S.Great Lakes and points south is in progress! N/NW of that is snow. Potential severe wx outbreak in the South.
Huge differences in models on cold. Great uncertainty.
It looks like a pattern change to less mild and possibly very cold later in January into early February.
NEW: Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!
Winter Weather Forecasts
Light Snow in the Great Lakes/Northeast. Many feet of snow will start piling up in the N.Rockies/West the next 2 weeks.
Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Current Weather Map
|NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop||NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion||NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion|
Current Jet Stream
|Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning|
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Another surge of warmth Eastern half. Cold deepens in the West to far N.Plains to Upper Midwest then east.
Incredible 90 degree temp contrast from far Southeast to N.Plains early next week!!
Late in the period the frigid air is on the move!!!!
Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.
Another big surge of warmth results in impressive magnitude of the positive/red anomalies in the East. Cold/blue anomalies HAVE grown tremendously N.Rockies/N.Plains..............then, as it shifts east on this map, the reds will shrink and shift southeast and be replaced by modest blues.....later next week.
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Major storms and action battering the far Northwest. .
A powerful blast of frigid air move be shifting southeast in the early and middle portion of next week.............with the mother load of cold sweeping east....but moderating.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Huge Action shifts to the Northwest US!
Several inches of rain from a potent southern stream system thru the weekend.........to points just north of the Ohio River Valley....S.Great Lakes.
Day 1 below:
Day 2 below:
Day 3 below
Days 4-5 below:
Days 6-7 below:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:
There is an elevated risk of severe weather the next day in the South.
|Current Day 1 Outlook|| Forecaster: Grams/Leitman|
Valid: 30/1300Z - 31/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
| Current Day 2 Outlook|| Forecaster: Mosier|
Valid: 31/1200Z - 01/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
| Current Day 3 Outlook|| Forecaster: Mosier|
Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
| Current Day 4-8 Outlook|
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)|
Go to: Most Recent Image
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
In july/August/Sept/Oct, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during those months. However, this year saw a HUGE increase in the Southeast!
January 9: DROUGHT the last 3 months has really shrunk. It's GONE in the Southeast! One area to watch is sw Kansas and the S.Plains for the Winter wheat crop but it's dormant right now.
Precip coming up will be too far east to help that area.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!
Starting with last week below:
Last Monday: Similar to yesterday but slightly more amplified. Stronger ridge Northeast Pacific, Deeper trough and slightly farther west in the West to Rockies to Plains. Slightly stronger upper level ridge in the Southeast. Arctic air in Canada will come south, favoring the West and northern border states but the stout ridge in the Southeast will provide resistance to the cold and warmth in that region. How far southeast will the frigid air get and how long will it last? Other models have just a brief shot of cold today for the high population centers, especially in the East and Southeast(not much).
Tuesday: Same forecast philosophy as Monday and same amplified pattern but not quite as amplified as yesterday. Tons of precip with massive snow piling up in the colder air. Big Winter storms possible between the contrasting air masses.
Wednesday: Still an amplified pattern but on this run for this model, not quite as much as the previous 2 days. Ridge Northeast Pacific, downstream deep trough West to Rockies to possibly into the Plains. Huge ridge far Southeast US. See the detailed analysis for today, 2 pages down for the GFS ensembles.
Thursday: Blocking Ridge in the Southeast weakens.........everything shifts farther east, including the storm track and cold air .........making it COLDER at the end of week 2.
Saturday: Like the previous 2 days but MUCH more so today, this model gets rid of the blocking Southeast ridge. As a result, the frigid temperatures in the West come gushing bodily eastward with a potential pattern change that spells an end to the amazing warmth at times in the Southeast to Midwest in recent weeks. Other models do not agree with this.
Sunday: The Canadian model looks MUCH colder than the other models here. Huge uncertainty.
Monday: The Canadian model continues MUCH colder than the other models. It has a ridge in the West/trough Midwest to East couplet that is almost the opposite of what some models show. It emphasizes the northern stream and takes it farther east because of the ridge at higher latitudes is sending down so much energy. The other models emphasize much more southern stream which is repelling/deflecting the northern stream
Tuesday: Canadian model continues to be the coldest by far with a ridge/west, trough east couplet vs almost the opposite on the GFS ensemble.......see below.
Wednesday: 12z run. WOW! Much more amplified with new cold pattern ridge/West, trough/Midwest to East couplet.
Thursday: The Canadian model continues to be much colder than the other models. In addition, it features cross polar flow from Siberia, across the Arctic into Canada, so the source region for cold fronts that come from Canada is potentially frigid. The southern stream will likely be battling with the northern stream over US terrain.......sending milder air from west to east at times. This is the recipe for a huge temperature disparity.
Friday: GFS has been joining the Canadian party with colder solutions.........European model not nearly as cold. Same theme. The previous trough/west, ridge east is replaced with a ridge/west, trough/east couplet that warms the west and chills the east..........on the Canadian model. Cross polar flow at high latitudes will drain frigid air into Canada, so cold fronts could pack some bone chilling punch. There is alot of uncertainty on how much amplification the new pattern will attain.
Saturday: At a chess tournament today.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jan 26, 2020 00 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Last Monday: Ridge in the Southeast is stronger and farther west(warmer) today vs Sunday.
Tuesday: Ridge East, trough West.......heavy precip in the middle, huge snows in the colder air. Big Winter storms possible between the contrasting air masses.
There is frigid air coming south from Canada but the entry point is too far west to be bullish, since the high population centers and highest heating demand for ng is in the Midwest/East/South.
We have a solidly -PNA pattern thru the period which strongly favors the cold to continue in the West and to have a tough time staying in the East, other than brief intrusions. Also a +AO(that does drop late) and +NAO that drops close to 0 late. We need those last 2 indices to be, at least close to 0 if not negative to give the frigid air a chance to last in the Midwest/East.
The trend for them to move in that direction at the end of 2 weeks and the AO has a couple solutions going negative and with the massive upper level ridge in the Northeast Pacific being the main feature and forecast to strengthen and build northward, likely connecting/extending to Siberia..........establishing a cross polar flow into Canada and a down steam trough in the mid latitudes.........which will be ideal for the most frigid air on the planet to dump south via the Siberian Express.
The entry point is in the West with a stout upper level ridge in the East trying to hold it back. Seems to me that based on the past, the ridge in the East often loses the battle in the end to the more powerful northern stream and....it's going to be difficult to hold back this massive amount of bone chilling air.
Look at the magnitude of the upper level height anomalies below at 2 weeks. The building positives/west and negative/downstream couplet, with 100% certainty, anything close to this will drive Arctic/Polar air south. This is the most important dynamic going on. Almost as important is the modest positive anomaly in the East. This is what will be holding back the lions share of cold and making spurts of the cold eastward brief...if it weakens, the frigid air will come in bodily/eastward and stay for longer and be very bullish.
So while the forecast is bearish with regards to HDD's in the Midwest/East because of the modest ridging, we are a stone's throw (on a global scale) at 2 weeks of it becoming very bullish.
Do note that this pattern will feature some MAJOR Winter Storms and feet of snow in the cold sector........with the contrast in temps and jet stream providing tons of energy, along with the deep upper level trough and moisture flowing in from the ridging to the East.
The heaviest snows will be in the West but possibly in the Upper Lakes to far Northeast where the southern edge of the cold/boundary has a chance to settle south and be overrun by moisture.
This is also the ideal set up for ice/freezing rain, with the more dense, bitter cold at the surface, pushing southeast with north winds at lower levels and undercutting the warmer/moist air aloft, where a southerly(south to north) component to air movement exists.
Thursday: Similar to yesterday. Where will the amplified Ridge/Trough/Ridge large scale features set up? Amplified flow pattern means some extreme weather.
Saturday: This model holds on to the same pattern thru 2 weeks on this solution. Massive Northeast Pacific ridge.........Deep trough/low Northwest US, big ridge Southeast US. With high confidence the WestNW will be very cold. Question is, how far east to take that cold? The Southeast will be VERY mild well into week 2 but that could change if the Canadian model has it right.
Sunday: The GFS Ensembles still hold on to the same pattern at 2 weeks, even though it allows for temporary cold shots to sweep east.
Monday: Same pattern, different day and again, much different and milder than the Canadian model at 2 weeks.
Tuesday: Same as recently. Ridge Northeast Pacific. Trough(not as deep today) Pac Northwest, Ridge along the East Coast. Not favorable for lasting cold in the East.
Thursday: The long lived pattern is finally show strong signs of weakening, if not ending. The biggest chance is the extreme negative anomaly in the Northwest is going bye bye......which might allow cold air masses to the east to penetrate deeper. However, the ridge in the East from the southern stream does not want to give up. So there will be a huge battle between the northern and southern streams. Cross polar flow here means the source region for cold coming from Canada may have air from Siberia.
Friday: Big positive anomaly in Alaska connects downsteam with a negative anomaly shifting east, into the middle of the country(with the negative in the NWest filling in). Still a positive anomaly along the East Coast but this will weaken and turn negative........possibly. The biggest deal is the cross polar flow from the ridge in Alaska. Air masses from Siberia will be dumped into Canada, then be transported south, feeding into the downstream trough in the US.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest.
Last Thursday: Very positive AO regime crashes lower in week 2. NAO drops then also making deeper cold air intrusions more likely at the end of week 2. PNA stays solidly negative which will try to oppose this and greatly favors the coldest air in the West.
Saturday: Very positive AO........but it plunges late in week 2. +NAO but that too drops to near 0 late in week 2. Solidly -PNA but that is increasing late. Recipe for very mild temps in the Southeast and cold in the West until late..........when a pattern change featuring the cold air surging east could happen.
Sunday: Same as yesterday. +++AO with +NAO and --PNA(very mild in the Southeast half) but they all move towards 0 later in week 2..............which has been the solution for numerous days now.
Monday: Similar to recent days, +++AO, +NAO and --PNA make it almost impossible for cold air surges to the SouthEast to remain for very long(and they will moderate greatly). Once again, the indices weaken in magnitude at the end of the period(not as much as yesterday). This has not resulted in it getting closer via progression of days, so is taken with a grain of salt. The Canadian model stands alone to contrast this with its COLDER week forecast with a sustainable shift in the pattern/cold.
Tuesday: Same extremes and late week 2 moves back towards 0. A little more decisive with the late week 2 changes in the cold direction today.
Thursday: The extreme +++AO that has been a noted feature for a couple of weeks, plunges towards 0 late in the period. This has been predicted forever but never gets closer. Todays solution looks more convincing and the models(not the European models) are moving in that direction. NAO drops a bit. Record --PNA is finally increasing towards 0 but still a bit negative. Cold threats are increasing but not if you believe the European model.
Friday: Ding Dong the amazing +++AO may be dead. At least the plunge lower in week 2 today looks the most convincing of any solutions recently. The potential new pattern will allow frigid air from high latitudes to travel to mid latitudes. However, the NAO tenaciously holds on to slightly positive thru the period, which potentially could provide a bit of resistence to the cold penetating deeply southeast. The incredible --PNA will also die as it moves closer to 0 but is still negative.
Saturday: AO continues to drop hard in week 2 with PNA coming up for record --PNA to near 0. This increases cold risks enormously. However, the NAO stays positive which will try to repel the cold in the South/Southeast.
Just for entertainment, let's look at the low skill just updated European model monthly outlook, 850 mb temperatures, which is around a mile up. Starting with January 20th.
Bone chilling cold surges deeply into the eastern half of the country in several waves during the last 10 days of January into early February...............however, it will probably look different with the next update in 4 days.
The European model 45 day weeklies were a bit colder than the previous run.
Take these maps and that forecast with a grain of salt.