KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, February 3, 2020
9:45 AM ET. January US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 52.4)
10:00 AM ET. January ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (previous 47.2)
Prices Idx (previous 51.7)
Employment Idx (previous 45.1)
Inventories (previous 46.5)
New Orders Idx (previous 46.8)
Production Idx (previous 43.2)
10:00 AM ET. December Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous +0.6%)
Residential Construction
11:00 AM ET. January Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 50.1)
4:00 PM ET. January Domestic Auto Industry Sales
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as the spreading coronavirus weighs is being closely monitored by the market. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 8748.34 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is January's high crossing at 9092.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 8925.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8748.34.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signals that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the January 8th low crossing at 3183.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3281.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3335.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3215.71. Second support is the January 8th low crossing at 3183.70.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, last-August's high crossing at 165-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 164-09. Second resistance is last-August's high crossing at 165-23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 161-08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-13.
March T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 132.025 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.269 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 131.290. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.025. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.186. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.269.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, October's low crossing at 50.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 54.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 54.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.79. First support is the overnight low crossing at 50.42. Second support is October's low crossing at 50.18.
March heating oil was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the June 2017 low crossing at 156.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 171.66 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 171.66. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 182.60. First support is the overnight low crossing at 160.28. Second support is the June 2017 low crossing at 156.49.
March unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, August's low crossing at 142.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 154.17 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 154.17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 161.17. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 144.49. Second support is August's low crossing at 142.08.
March Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.999 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.881. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.999. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.812. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the October 8th high crossing at 98.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. Second resistance is the October 8th high crossing at 98.46. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.17. Second support is the January 16th low crossing at 96.81.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.53 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 110.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 16th high crossing at 112.13. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 112.93. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 110.24. Second support is October's low crossing at 110.14.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-Friday's rally, the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312 is the next upside target. Closes below December's low crossing at 1.2940 would open the door for additional weakness near-term and a possible test of the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. First resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. First support is December's low crossing at 1.2940. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, January's high crossing at 1.0444 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0279 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0444. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0461. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0272. Second is the December 24th low crossing at 1.0233.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the January 6th low crossing at 75.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.92. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.31. First support is the overnight low crossing at 75.44. Second support is the December 6th low crossing at 75.40.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 0.0932 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0917 are needed to temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0932. First support is January's low crossing at 0.0909. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.0906.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $1619.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80 are needed to renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1619.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1687.00. First support is the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1523.30.
March silver was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $18.375 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the December 18th low crossing at $16.935 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $18.375. Second resistance is January's highcrossing at $18.895. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $17.280. Second support is the December 18th low crossing at $16.935.
March copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at $234.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $263.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $263.15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $273.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at $248.75. Second support is monthly support crossing at $234.31.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower in quiet trading overnight as it extends the December-February trading range. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at $4.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat gapped down and was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.48 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during February. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.67 3/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.67 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $5.92 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.47. Second support is the December 23rd low crossing at $5.40.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.05 1/2-cent at $4.64 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.63 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness into early-February. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.85 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.85 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.63 3/4. Second support is the December 20th low crossing at 4.57.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.49 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.49. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is the the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.29 1/2. Second support the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the May-2018 low crossing at $8.41 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.16 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.94 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.16 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is the May-2018 low crossing at $8.41 1/2.
March soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at $288.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $300.90 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 295.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $298.70. First support is the overnight low crossing at $290.00. Second support is monthly support crossing at $288.30.
March soybean oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 31.51. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.78. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 28.55.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $4.18 at $57.13.
February hogs gapped lower and closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at $52.25 is the next downside target. Closes above today's gap crossing at $61.30 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is today's gap crossing at $61.30. Second resistance is Thursday's low crossing at 64.13. First support is today's low crossing at $56.85. Second support is weekly support crossing at $52.25.
February cattle closed down $0.40 at $121.38.
February cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $119.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $125.14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $125.14. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $127.55. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $121.12. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $119.22.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.43-cents at $135.45.
March Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.32 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $139.02. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.32. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $134.20. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 9.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.29 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 29.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.22 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
March cotton closed sharply lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.94 thereby opening the door for additional weakness near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the December 18th low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Natural Gas:
metmike: We were higher on Sunday Evening because of colder late week 2 forecasts vs Friday, some were looking pretty impressive. Models ALL warmed up overnight. This is why we are lower. The models have been faking up out with the late week cold all year.............then going back to the mild weather continuing.
Maybe we will turn colder in mid February but cold at the end of solutions has to be viewed with some skepticism.
The contract low for ngh are 1.812 from last week. We are within striking distance right now at 1.820.
There should be a lot of sell stops below 1.812 one would guess, so trading below there could result in a big spike lower that might or might not have any follow thru.
In the absence in that............if, lets say that we get down below contract lows but are met with huge buying orders from entities that see great value(or limited downside potential) that keeps us from dropping any more......it MIGHT be a sign that we are very close to a bottom.
However, if it remains warm in February, I would not be surprised to see even lower prices.
Regardless, we are putting in a major low for 2020 here(whether HERE is this week or later this month, I have no idea) but would bet with confidence that the price will be higher than this in April/May. .......and likely the rest of the year.
Wheat:
Failed gaps become potential exhaustion/reversal signals(gap and crap).
The formation now becomes potentially bullish for wheat because last nights gap lower was filled.......but we have to close higher today!
However, there are some extreme forces pushing in different directions here which causes it to be a less reliable signal.
Should we close higher today, it would confirm the gap and crap, reversal.........at least today. Closing lower just means volatility in a market that is reacting to news with any gap signals negated but a lower close would still be negative.
News tomorrow that comes out mega bearish might cause us to go the other way but today, wheat acts like it wants to resume the uptrend.
Beans: It needs to stop raining in South America. Feb. is a key developing state(pod fill). Big rains for dry Argentina in the next week. Then some in dry S.Brazil, with the rest of Brazil doing pretty well.
At least export inspections for beans just now were HUGE!