Precipitation that has accumulated within the last 24 hours.
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Will MID February turn colder?
We need a -AO in the forecast to have confidence of sustained Feb. cold but its not there now...though it plunges in 2 weeks from record high levels.
European model turned much milder again overnight week 2. 12Z GFS ENS and Canadian models colder, Euro slightly colder.
Models have all been too cold this year but maybe it will finally turn colder this time. Some huge opposing forces late in week 2 between the northern and southern streams which will create a huge temperature gradient from north to southeast.
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Winter Weather Forecasts
Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Current Weather Map
|NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop||NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion||NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion|
Current Jet Stream
|Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning|
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Warming again this period in the Southern/Southeastern half of the country, as well as the East Coast.
Turning sharply colder NorthCentral late this period.
Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.
Magnitude of reds in the East grows, while magnitude of the blues farther west also grows...............big temp disparity.
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Heavy precip Northwest US finally lets up.
Southeast getting some very heavy rains!
Day 1 below:
Day 2 below:
Day 3 below
Days 4-5 below:
Days 6-7 below:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:
|Current Day 1 Outlook|| Forecaster: Grams/Leitman|
Valid: 30/1300Z - 31/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
| Current Day 2 Outlook|| Forecaster: Mosier|
Valid: 31/1200Z - 01/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
| Current Day 3 Outlook|| Forecaster: Mosier|
Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
| Current Day 4-8 Outlook|
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Precipitation that has accumulated within the last 24 hours.
Precipitation that has accumulated within the last 7 days.
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)|
Go to: Most Recent Image
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You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
January 30 : DROUGHT in TX/SW Plains to points northwest right now. No drought anywhere in the Midwest.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!
Starting with last week below:
Monday: Definitely less amplified at higher latitudes today, which suggests more zonal flow and Arctic air completely cut off from moving south. However, pronounced ridge SWest to West and downstream trough couplet suggests cool weather in the Southcentral to South(very mild north). A minority still want to bring in northern stream action/cold but the Canadian model has tried to do this repeatedly in recent days and mostly been wrong.
Tuesday: More amplified than Monday and a tad colder but not a great deal of northern stream influence on most solutions(minority do have a significant northern stream) just a ridge/west, cooler trough downstream couplet in the southern stream....without frigid air to tap. This model has been too cold for the last month.
Thursday: Canadian model continues to be the coldest model and is a bit cold overnight......but the other models have been moving towards the Canadian model, especially the European model late in week 2. All the models have been too cold the past month, so there is reason to be skeptical of the cold, while still wanting to believe the models trends moving in that direction. Wednesday and Wed Night. Regardless, the pattern below is for the northern jet stream to shift very far south and the Polar vortex to also accompany that/in concert as it drops to SouthCentral to Southeast Canada. There is some decent upper level ridging along the West Coast that might assist that.
Friday: 12z run. HUGE changes for an ensemble. MUCH milder, zonal, Pacific, west to east flow spreading across the country.
Saturday: Milder than a couple of days ago still with more zonal flow but still uncertain with a potential weakness/trough south of the Canadian border that cold air can drop into.
Sunday: We really have a battle going on here with all the models going back and forth each day/run on how much cold to bring down in week 2 based on whether the northern stream can make in roads south into the recently dominant southern stream binging Pacific air masses in here. We were colder midweek, then turned much milder Friday. Colder again Saturday afternoon, then milder again Saturday Night. A few solutions are bitter cold which is causing the average to be pretty cold even though the majority are not that cold. Confidence is low.
Monday: Both the northern and southern streams are stronger, so the gradient between them is more packed. Much more cross polar flow today so Canada is MUCH colder. Any air masses that make it south of the Canadian border will have some frigid air. This, while a modest ridge tries to build in the far Southeast will milder air. This is the recipe for an enormous temperature contrast from very cold in the NorthCentral to warm in the southeast. Maybe an 80 degree temperature differential at times? Small changes in the location of the main features and boundary between the contrasting air masses is causing huge model to model shifts in temperatures.
Tuesday: Cross polar flow and polar vortex in Canada..........frigid! Modest ridge trying to build in the far Southeast US.........mild! How deeply south will the frigid air be able to penetrate? Models are going back and forth on every run. For sure there will be a huge temperature gradient from northwest to southeast and the coldest anomalies will be in the NorthCentral US...to northern Rockies.
Wednesday: More ridging in the Southeast for sure. This mean more resistance to the cold air as it tries to push southeast. Trough is also farther west which lines up with that and for the coldest air to be farther west today. Still cross polar flow and mighty cold air filling up Canada so cold fronts will be loaded with frigid air in week 2.
Thursday: The models are warmer, especially the European Ensembles for the 2nd day in a row............but NOT the Canadian model, which is actually colder today and bets heavily that the northern stream will drop well south of the US border. With cross polar flow, the air massed coming from Canada will have some frigid air. All the models have been too cold over the past month and this one has been the coldest(wrong by the most). With an almost +++AO and +NAO it will be tough to keep a sustained cold air flow from the north coming......but maybe the +++AO is wrong?
Saturday: Colder today and more northern stream.
Sunday: Really looking cold at the end of 2 weeks on some solutions. More later today.
Monday: Sorry for no comments over the weekend.........but it changed anyway.12z run today. Over the weekend, the ridge west/trough east couplet was looking much more impressive and colder. More zonal today, mainly because the there is no ridge in the West............it retrogrades much farther west into the Northeast Pacific. Definitely more zonal and milder today than over the weekend........but with cross polar flow dumping frigid air into Canada, cold fronts that drop into the trough in the northern US will be very cold at times.
Tuesday: 12z run today. More zonal. Less northern stream. Cross polar flow and source of very cold in Canada prior to this is getting cut off. Milder for this model on Tuesday morning but the last 12z GFS went the other way.......colder. The EURO wont come out for a little while but the previous on was colder.
Wednesday: Much deeper trough into the US(base from N.Plains to Southwest) but a bit farther west than previous solutions and the upper level ridge in the Southeast stronger on several solution is consistent with that. Massive disparity/contrast based on the difference in how the northern and southern streams are handled. For sure there will be great temp contrast from cold in the N.Plains to very warm in the Southeast. Could get close to a 100 degree difference with near 90 in FL and below 0 in MT.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Feb 21, 2020 00 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Last Tuesday: Same as recently. Ridge Northeast Pacific. Trough(not as deep today) Pac Northwest, Ridge along the East Coast. Not favorable for lasting cold in the East.
Thursday: The long lived pattern is finally show strong signs of weakening, if not ending. The biggest chance is the extreme negative anomaly in the Northwest is going bye bye......which might allow cold air masses to the east to penetrate deeper. However, the ridge in the East from the southern stream does not want to give up. So there will be a huge battle between the northern and southern streams. Cross polar flow here means the source region for cold coming from Canada may have air from Siberia.
Friday: Big positive anomaly in Alaska connects downsteam with a negative anomaly shifting east, into the middle of the country(with the negative in the NWest filling in). Still a positive anomaly along the East Coast but this will weaken and turn negative........possibly. The biggest deal is the cross polar flow from the ridge in Alaska. Air masses from Siberia will be dumped into Canada, then be transported south, feeding into the downstream trough in the US.
Sunday: Progressing as expected. Powerful positive anomaly in Alaska and downstream negative anomaly in the Northeast is textbook couplet for cold air delivery from Canada south into the US. The source r
Tuesday: Numerous anomalies, without any one being powerful enough to key off of. The dominant pattern leading up to this period, however is mild Pacific flow and modest ridging along the West Coast in mid latitudes. One thing that does stand out with the maps below is cross polar flow into Alaska and NW Canada. Some of that could leak farther south if the zonal flow in the US allows it.
Thursday: Unusual configuration. At the mid latitudes, a favorable ridge/West, trough east couplet for warm West and cold East. Just the opposite at higher latitudes with a trough/West and Ridge/East. This probably means the real frigid air will stay locked up around Alaska/N.Canada, while the cold air delivery farther south in the US is good at times(in the East), the fronts will most often have Pacific air masses that are mild with the major cold much too far north to get entrained into most/all of these fronts. If the pattern amplified like the Canadian model(or what some other model runs have done at times-and most been too cold) then the bitter cold could be tapped.but not with the anomalies below.
Friday: Anomaly magnitudes pretty weak and NOT favorable for cold air moving south from higher latitudes. Sure, there will be "cold" fronts in the East with this type of pattern but they will lack a frigid punch and not be sustained.
Saturday: Unstable anomaly centers. A new big one popping up in the N.Atlantic. Could this turn into a Greenland block with a -NAO developing and cold East? Negative anomalies in Alaska and NW Canada will keep coldest air up there until this changes.
Sunday: Models struggling with how much cold comes in week 2. Anomalies below are not ideal for sustained cold to penetrate deeply into the US.
Monday: Anomalies continue to move around and be weak in North America. Cold now looking more likely in the West and especially the N.Plains than it did and warmth in the Southeast.
Tuesday: Anomalies are more favorable for cold now. Modest ridge off the West Coast/far East Pacific and downstream trough in SouthCentral Canada with trough into the US. Nice couplet for air to travel from north to south between them and into the trough. The origin of the air masses in Canada will be frigid with cross polar flow from N.Siberia feeding into Canada.
Wednesday: Building positive anomaly in the Southeast from an upper level ridge that will block the coldest air from getting deeply into the Southeast. This has warmed forecasts overnight for the East(less HDD's). Cold will still be able to get across the Canadian border with ease. W. Canada and Alaska are bone chilling cold from cross polar flow, so the cold just south of the Canadian border will be major cold. .........as in N.Plains/Rockies.
Thursday; The set up is actually pretty good for some major cold to make it into the NorthCentral US. Major because the origin of cold in Canada will be Siberia, from cross polar flow. A ridge in the Southeast/East will try to resist that cold as it heads southeast. Look for a huge temperature gradient from the Southeast, that could have highs above 80 in FL, while its below 0 in the N.Plains/Rockies, possibly close to 100 degrees colder for a time!
Saturday: Potentially powerful cold air developing, textbook couplet at the end of 2 weeks. This is new! More later.
Monday: 2 days later. The favorable ridge/west, trough east couplet from over the weekend has shifted. The ridge west has retrograded west to the Northeast Pacific to Western Alaska. The downstream trough anomaly has shifted a bit east and the 2 are less connected but still are favorable for bitter cold air............even cross polar flow between them to dump into most of Canada. This means cold fronts that can manage to get into the northern tier will have some frigid air. At the same time, a building positive/ridge anomaly in the Southeast will make it warm there and repel any attempts from the northern stream to send cold air in that direction. This pattern is the recipe for a massive temperature contrast from north to south. Would not be surprized to see near 90 in Florida with near 0 at the same time along the Canadian border.
Tuesday: Big positive anomaly from Northeast Pacific to Alaska and downstream negative anomaly(in far Eastern Canada...bit far away to be an ideal couplet) should drive cold down thru Canada, with some cross polar flow making it a potent brand of cold. However, the mid latitudes are not at all in sync with that cold from the northern stream getting a good(maximized) push very far east and especially not southeast. The reason is an upper level ridge/positive anomaly in the Southeast which will resist cold intrusions and induce a southerly (south to north movement) component to mid/upper level steering currents in the Southeast 1/3rd of the country. With the amount of frigid air in S.Canada during week 2, its very likely that a good chunk of that will push well south of the US border behind any waves/perturbations in the flow that tug it down with the north to south winds on the backside.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly in the Northeast Pacific has shifted east to just off the West Coast of Canada. Downsteam negative anomaly is way up in Northeast Canada.......pretty far away for the flow between them to ideally couple and maximize the southward push of cold. Pretty impressive, growing positive anomaly, centered in the Southeast will make it IMPOSSIBLE for cold air to do anything but make a very brief, very moderated appearance in the Southeast. Huge temp contrast from cold/north to warm/southeast.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Last Monday: AO now is forecast to STAY POSITIVE for the duration, which lessens risk for major cold outbreaks. NAO drops to near 0, while the PNA becomes positive for the first time in ages. This suggests mild temps over much of the country, especially West and North but chilly with respect to average in parts of the south.
Tuesday: AO stays positive............lessens chances for bitter cold to get into the US. NAO close to 0. PNA slightly positive to near 0.
Thursday: The biggest case for NOT turning much colder continues to be the AO staying positive for the duration. This weakens air flow from high latitudes towards mid latitudes.......keeping the cold air locked up in the north. The NAO and PNA are pretty close to 0 and not a big consideration in leaning in any direction from those indice values.
Friday: Again, the +AO suggests the models will be too cold and sure enough, they all turned MUCH milder the past 24 hours. However, there were a few members that suggested an AO dropping to below zero late week 2 but all the models have been too cold, especially the Canadian model for the last month, so the milder shifts are in line with the model performance(poor recently). PNA a slight + that favors warmer west vs slightly cooler east. NAO close to 0 or just above, also not a value that makes us think it will get and stay cold for very long............but the pattern may be unstable with a battle between the southern and northern stream unresolved. Yesterday, the northern stream was predicted to win in February. Today, it's the southern stream.
Saturday: +AO still but some members a bit negative. Ideally would prefer a -AO to go with a cold February. NAO close to 0. PNA a bit positive with mild temps in the West.
Sunday: Still the +AO makes major, sustained cold less likely but huge spread with a couple negatives making it uncertain. NAO and PNA not far from 0.
Monday: Still +AO but one member at -4, which seems crazy. NAO near 0. PNA drifting lower may starts favoring more cold in the West again.
Tuesday: Still +AO makes it tough to get too bullish on sustained cold even though there will be FRIGID air in Canada and some will likely get into the US. NAO and PNA not far from 0.
Wednesday: Holy Cow on the AO. Extremely wide spread here with uncertainty and a few just above 0 but several at record +++++AO, at the top of the chart. While that seems overdone, one can't be bullish at all about cold from higher latitudes pushing deeply into the mid latitudes for any sustained period of time. This is clearly bearish for ng with the average around ++AO. NAO also is a bit positive(not favorable for cold penetrating south) and PNA around 0 to tad negative.
Thursday: Same as yesterday on the AO. The average approaches +++AO at the end of 2 weeks with less spread. +NAO and -PNA are very unfavorable for sustained cold to penetrate deeply southeast...........but there will be a frigid air mass in Canada in week 2, so any air massed coming from Canada, will be loaded with cold as they cross the border.
Saturday: Indices turning much colder at the very end of 2 weeks!
Monday: Wild changes. AO spikes to record highs at the top of the chart near +++++AO, then plunges at the end of 2 weeks towards 0. NAO is solidly positive(no record) but starts dropping late. PNA is very strongly negative but is turning at the end of 2 weeks. The changes at the end of 2 weeks still suggest the potential for much colder weather during the 2nd half of February, after the East/Southeast are very mild prior to then. This late period has had poor model performance and been to cold all year, so we will dial that long lived BIG bias into our forecast philosophy, while wanting to believe that it will turn colder because it would provide more interesting meteorology and trading (-:
Tuesday: Record +++++AO ahead, during the next week....followed by a crash lower and very wide spread......meaning uncertainty but still positive AO. Not good for sustained cold in the South and East. NAO is solidly positive........not good for cold in the East and South. -PNA once again is strongly negative, also not good for east going deeply southeast..........good for cold in the West and just south of the border farther east. However, things may be changing in week 2 and may look different on Wednesday.
Wednesday: The main item is the record +++++AO coming in a few days.............this drops(how can't it) but stays positive with a wide spread in week 2. +NAO stays positive. -PNA very strong negative increasing towards 0 late wek 2. This indices are UNfavorable for sustained cold in the East/Southeast.
Winter so far for the Nation...warmest on record (beating 2005/2006)
Snowfall anomalies thru Feb 6 compared to the 2008-2018 avg. Thoughts 1. Sierra Nevada need the Pacific Split to end 2. Central/Northern Rockies ahead 2. Northern Plains have already exceeded a winter's worth of snow 3. Ohio Valley / Appalachians / Northeast wet but not snowy