KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, February 7, 2020
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +158K; previous +145K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.5%; previous 3.5%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.32)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.03)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.11%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.0%; previous +2.9%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.3)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +6K)
Private Payroll (previous +139K)
Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous -0.1%)
3:00 AM ET. December Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +12.51B)
Monday, February 10, 2020
9:30 AM ET. SEC Fixed Income Market Structure Advisory Committee Meeting
10:00 AM ET. January Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 109.68)
ETI, Y/Y%
N/A U.S. President Donald Trump releases Fiscal Year 2021 Budget
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower ahead of today's jobs report in overnight trading as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9171.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 9471.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the January 27th low crossing at 8925.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8835.84.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight due to profit taking ahead of the release of today's jobs report. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3232.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3340.90. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3286.62. Second support is the January 31st low crossing at 3215.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's losses. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-11 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, last-August's high crossing at 165-23 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 164-09. Second resistance is last-August's high crossing at 165-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-11. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-19.
March T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's losses. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.057 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 132.025 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 131.290. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.025. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.057. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.125.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 51.67. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.59. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 49.31. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76.
March heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 175.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 145.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 165.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 175.39. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 156.84. Second support is monthly support crossing at 145.80.
March unleaded gas was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 156.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If March extends the decline off January's high, August's low crossing at 142.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 154.61. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 156.63. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 143.45. Second support is August's low crossing at 142.08.
March Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.940 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.940. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.107. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.804. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 98.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 98.52. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 98.47. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.21.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 111.25. Second resistance is the January 16th high crossing at 112.13. First support is the overnight low crossing at 109.71. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 109.21.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below December's low crossing at 1.2940 would open the door for additional weakness near-term and a possible test of the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3099 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3225. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. First support is December's low crossing at 1.2940. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0252 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0348 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.0418. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0444. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0252. Second is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0207.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, October's low crossing at 75.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.98 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.51. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.98. First support is the overnight low crossing at 75.10. Second support is October's low crossing at 75.01.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 0.0909 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 0.0932 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0932. First support is January's low crossing at 0.0909. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.0906.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $1619.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80 are needed to renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1619.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1687.00. First support is the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1530.30.
March silver was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $18.375 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the December 18th low crossing at $16.935 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $18.375. Second resistance is January's highcrossing at $18.895. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $17.280. Second support is the December 18th low crossing at $16.935.
March copper was lower overnight signaling that a three-day rebound off Monday's low appears to have come to an end. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $268.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at $234.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $262.25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $268.37. First support is Monday's low crossing at $248.75. Second support is monthly support crossing at $234.31.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher in quiet trading overnight as it extends the December-February trading range. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off Monday's low, January's high crossing at $3.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.65 3/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 5.46 1/2 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during February. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.65 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $5.92 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $5.46 1/2. Second support is the December 23rd low crossing at $5.40.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.06-cents at $4.67 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.83 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.66 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness into early-February. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.83 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.66 3/4. Second support is the December 20th low crossing at 4.57.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.46 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.46. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is the the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.29 1/2. Second support the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.04 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the aforementioned decline, the May-2018-low crossing at $8.41 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.83 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.04 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is the May-2018 low crossing at $8.41 1/2.
March soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $296.10 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 291.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $296.10. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $286.40. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
March soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54 is the next likely downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.71. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 28.55.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $3.00 at $64.88.
April hogs closed limit up on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at $52.25 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's gap crossing at $65.82 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's gap crossing at $65.82. Second resistance is last-Thursday's gap crossing at 68.67. First support is Monday's low crossing at $61.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at $52.25.
April cattle closed up $0.58 at $119.75.
April cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $123.84 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $123.84. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $128.30. First support is today's low crossing at $118.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.23-cents at $135.90.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.58 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $138.08. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.58. First support is Monday's low crossing at $133.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 9.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.80 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cocoa closed sharply higher on Thursday and renewed the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 29.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.47 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.25 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the December 18th low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target.
Thanks for the morning update,I read them everyday!
Thanks tallpine and Mike!