6 days until Valentines day! Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Model forecasts have all been too cold this year and the latest updates having been warming it up again(week 2) vs the previous forecasts...........though we have seasonal cold on the way next week(week 1).
+++AO and +NAO must drop for sustained major cold!
NEW: Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!
Winter Weather Forecasts
Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Current Weather Map
|NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop||NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion||NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion|
Current Jet Stream
|Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning|
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Shot of cold northern half, a couple of frigid days along the northern border.........Very mild Southeast.
Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.
Magnitude of reds in the Southeast remains impressive...........contrasting with modest blues to near average farther north and west.
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
A couple of Arctic fronts that moderate greatly heading southeast.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Heavy precip Northwest US finally lets up......but comes back late.
Southeast getting some very heavy rains!
Just light amounts in the Midwest this period.......maybe increasing week 2?
Day 1 below:
Day 2 below:
Day 3 below
Days 4-5 below:
Days 6-7 below:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Excessive rain potential.
Big rain event next week southeast of the Midwest.
|Current Day 1 Forecast|
Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19
|Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts|
|Current Day 2 Forecast|
Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19
|Current Day 3 Forecast|
Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days.
Not that impressive in the heavy rain events coming up.
|Current Day 1 Outlook|| Forecaster: Grams/Leitman|
Valid: 30/1300Z - 31/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
| Current Day 2 Outlook|| Forecaster: Mosier|
Valid: 31/1200Z - 01/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
| Current Day 3 Outlook|| Forecaster: Mosier|
Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
| Current Day 4-8 Outlook|
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)|
Go to: Most Recent Image
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Wet soils in the Midwest with planting starting in 2 months. Plenty of time to dry out but Spring Storms with heavy precip will be bullish for corn.
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
February 6 : DROUGHT in TX/SW Plains to points northwest right now. No drought anywhere in the Midwest.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!
Starting with last week below:
Last Monday in January: Both the northern and southern streams are stronger, so the gradient between them is more packed. Much more cross polar flow today so Canada is MUCH colder. Any air masses that make it south of the Canadian border will have some frigid air. This, while a modest ridge tries to build in the far Southeast will milder air. This is the recipe for an enormous temperature contrast from very cold in the NorthCentral to warm in the southeast. Maybe an 80 degree temperature differential at times? Small changes in the location of the main features and boundary between the contrasting air masses is causing huge model to model shifts in temperatures.
Tuesday: Cross polar flow and polar vortex in Canada..........frigid! Modest ridge trying to build in the far Southeast US.........mild! How deeply south will the frigid air be able to penetrate? Models are going back and forth on every run. For sure there will be a huge temperature gradient from northwest to southeast and the coldest anomalies will be in the NorthCentral US...to northern Rockies.
Wednesday: More ridging in the Southeast for sure. This mean more resistance to the cold air as it tries to push southeast. Trough is also farther west which lines up with that and for the coldest air to be farther west today. Still cross polar flow and mighty cold air filling up Canada so cold fronts will be loaded with frigid air in week 2.
Thursday: The models are warmer, especially the European Ensembles for the 2nd day in a row............but NOT the Canadian model, which is actually colder today and bets heavily that the northern stream will drop well south of the US border. With cross polar flow, the air massed coming from Canada will have some frigid air. All the models have been too cold over the past month and this one has been the coldest(wrong by the most). With an almost +++AO and +NAO it will be tough to keep a sustained cold air flow from the north coming......but maybe the +++AO is wrong?
Saturday: Colder today and more northern stream.
Sunday: Really looking cold at the end of 2 weeks on some solutions. More later today.
First Monday in Feb: Sorry for no comments over the weekend.........but it changed anyway.12z run today. Over the weekend, the ridge west/trough east couplet was looking much more impressive and colder. More zonal today, mainly because the there is no ridge in the West............it retrogrades much farther west into the Northeast Pacific. Definitely more zonal and milder today than over the weekend........but with cross polar flow dumping frigid air into Canada, cold fronts that drop into the trough in the northern US will be very cold at times.
Tuesday: 12z run today. More zonal. Less northern stream. Cross polar flow and source of very cold in Canada prior to this is getting cut off. Milder for this model on Tuesday morning but the last 12z GFS went the other way.......colder. The EURO wont come out for a little while but the previous on was colder.
Wednesday: Much deeper trough into the US(base from N.Plains to Southwest) but a bit farther west than previous solutions and the upper level ridge in the Southeast stronger on several solution is consistent with that. Massive disparity/contrast based on the difference in how the northern and southern streams are handled. For sure there will be great temp contrast from cold in the N.Plains to very warm in the Southeast. Could get close to a 100 degree difference with near 90 in FL and below 0 in MT.
Saturday: The almost always(this year) too cold Canadian model has REALLY warmed things up late week 2 vs previous forecasts. The average is more zonal, west to east flow which is very mild. Several have a modest ridge W.Canada, trough downstream couplet which would make it much colder in the Midwest..........minority of solutions. No more cross polar flow that is a feature in next weeks cold coming from Canada..........so Canada will REALLY warm up during week 2.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Feb 23, 2020 00 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Last Monday: The favorable ridge/west, trough east couplet from over the weekend has shifted. The ridge west has retrograded west to the Northeast Pacific to Western Alaska. The downstream trough anomaly has shifted a bit east and the 2 are less connected but still are favorable for bitter cold air............even cross polar flow between them to dump into most of Canada. This means cold fronts that can manage to get into the northern tier will have some frigid air. At the same time, a building positive/ridge anomaly in the Southeast will make it warm there and repel any attempts from the northern stream to send cold air in that direction. This pattern is the recipe for a massive temperature contrast from north to south. Would not be surprized to see near 90 in Florida with near 0 at the same time along the Canadian border.
Tuesday: Big positive anomaly from Northeast Pacific to Alaska and downstream negative anomaly(in far Eastern Canada...bit far away to be an ideal couplet) should drive cold down thru Canada, with some cross polar flow making it a potent brand of cold. However, the mid latitudes are not at all in sync with that cold from the northern stream getting a good(maximized) push very far east and especially not southeast. The reason is an upper level ridge/positive anomaly in the Southeast which will resist cold intrusions and induce a southerly (south to north movement) component to mid/upper level steering currents in the Southeast 1/3rd of the country. With the amount of frigid air in S.Canada during week 2, its very likely that a good chunk of that will push well south of the US border behind any waves/perturbations in the flow that tug it down with the north to south winds on the backside.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly in the Northeast Pacific has shifted east to just off the West Coast of Canada. Downsteam negative anomaly is way up in Northeast Canada.......pretty far away for the flow between them to ideally couple and maximize the southward push of cold. Pretty impressive, growing positive anomaly, centered in the Southeast will make it IMPOSSIBLE for cold air to do anything but make a very brief, very moderated appearance in the Southeast. Huge temp contrast from cold/north to warm/southeast.
Saturday: 2 positive anomalies. 1 centered off the Pac NW Coast and another in the Southeast. Modest positive anomalies between them with the nearest negative anomalies many thousands of miles away............having no flow pattern linkage to the positive anomalies anywhere close to the US. This is the recipe for widespread warmth across North America. No chance for major cold at 2 weeks until this changes.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Last Monday: Wild changes. AO spikes to record highs at the top of the chart near +++++AO, then plunges at the end of 2 weeks towards 0. NAO is solidly positive(no record) but starts dropping late. PNA is very strongly negative but is turning at the end of 2 weeks. The changes at the end of 2 weeks still suggest the potential for much colder weather during the 2nd half of February, after the East/Southeast are very mild prior to then. This late period has had poor model performance and been to cold all year, so we will dial that long lived BIG bias into our forecast philosophy, while wanting to believe that it will turn colder because it would provide more interesting meteorology and trading (-:
Tuesday: Record +++++AO ahead, during the next week....followed by a crash lower and very wide spread......meaning uncertainty but still positive AO. Not good for sustained cold in the South and East. NAO is solidly positive........not good for cold in the East and South. -PNA once again is strongly negative, also not good for east going deeply southeast..........good for cold in the West and just south of the border farther east. However, things may be changing in week 2 and may look different on Wednesday.
Wednesday: The main item is the record +++++AO coming in a few days.............this drops(how can't it) but stays positive with a wide spread in week 2. +NAO stays positive. -PNA very strong negative increasing towards 0 late wek 2. This indices are UNfavorable for sustained cold in the East/Southeast.
Saturday: AO spikes to near record highs then stays at least +AO after that. +NAO too. No way will there be sustained very cold weather during the 2nd half of February unless this changes substantially. PNA actually increases to slightly positive as a ridge builds off the Pac Northwest Coast.
Winter so far for the Nation...warmest on record (beating 2005/2006)
By metmike - Feb. 6, 2020, 7:26 p.m.
latest 32 day snowfall on euro vs older run, Tad more robust
By metmike - Feb. 6, 2020, 7:30 p.m.
Snowfall anomalies thru Feb 6 compared to the 2008-2018 avg. Thoughts 1. Sierra Nevada need the Pacific Split to end 2. Central/Northern Rockies ahead 2. Northern Plains have already exceeded a winter's worth of snow 3. Ohio Valley / Appalachians / Northeast wet but not snowy
By metmike - Feb. 6, 2020, 7:32 p.m.
Long-term median number of days per year with snow depth of 1"+ on the ground.