https://uncoverdc.com/2020/02/07/coronavirus-grips-china/
If we are looking at a bio-lab catastrophe here, it seems likely the catastrophe was caused by genetic tampering gone wrong. What happens to Chinese people, vaccinated with SARS vaccine, who are then re-exposed to a coronavirus? Is this what is making this coronavirus so deadly? Or, is it deadly? Is it deadly only in Chinese? Have any non-Chinese died? The literature on 2019 n-CoV does not reflect catastrophic pathogenicity that would explain events in China. We must also factor in that we don’t know what the true death toll is, nor can we know who to trust. We are dealing with the nation of China; a communist authoritarian society not well known for truthfulness in information, especially when that information could be detrimental to their image.
Whatever is going on, it sure is causing economic chaos.
Despite being bombarded with scary Coronavirus news daily, let's use some unemotional math(calculus) to show you that the new cases and deaths may be DEcelerating and the rate of spread is being contained/is slowing.
First, the math lesson for those that like calculus:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflection_point
For a curve given by parametric equations, a point is an inflection point if its signed curvature changes from plus to minus or from minus to plus, i.e., changes sign.
For a twice differentiable function, an inflection point is a point on the graph at which the second derivative has an isolated zero and changes sign.
Plot of f(x) = sin(2x) from −π/4 to 5π/4; the second derivative is f″(x) = –4sin(2x), and its sign is thus the opposite of the sign of f. Tangent is blue where the curve is convex (above its own tangent), green where concave (below its tangent), and red at inflection points: 0, π/2 and π
You may connect better to this explanation.
https://www.mathsisfun.com/calculus/inflection-points.html
An Inflection Point is where a curve changes from Concave upward to Concave downward (or vice versa)
So what is concave upward / downward ?
| Concave upward is when the slope increases: |  | |
| Concave downward is when the slope decreases: |  |
Now the Corona Virus graph
This is updated every day after the Feb. 8 date of this particular post, so comments on Feb 8, are relevant only to the graph at that point-additional comments are added below with the fresh updates:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
Semi-log plot of daily new confirmed cases and deaths in China.[112]
The flattening out of the slope is a feature of being concave downward(in calculus). If we were to assume that these numbers are accurate and will continue on that path, the concave downward projection is on its way to new daily cases actually going down consistently.
Going from the initial, extremely steep slope of increasing reports............and unreliable information that maintained for around the first 12 points on the graph out of 23 points.
The last 11 black dot points on the graph are clearly rising at a much slower rate.
ps: I should note that the plot of cases and deaths is on a semi-logarithic graph, which is needed because the changes/data going from small to much larger numbers. Using linear values for both axis(y is vertical) would have required massive height to the graph(Y axis) to be more useful or else the lower numbers to the left would not have shown up well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semi-log_plot
In science and engineering, a semi-logarithmic or semi-log graph or plot has one axis on a logarithmic scale, the other on a linear scale. It is useful for data with exponential relationships, or where one variables covers a large range of values
This doctor understands it!!
Published
The most encouraging news comes from looking at the rate of increase in the epidemic – the shape of the epidemic curve. It appears that a turning point (the so-called “inflection point”) has already been reached. This is the place where the curve starts to flatten out, signaling that control may be in sight.
So put the speculative, very alarming stories like these from CNN in context based on facts that you just read.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/business/coronavirus-global-economy/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/asia/coronavirus-deaths-china-intl-hnk/index.html
metmike: While nobody knows for sure what this will be like in a month or later this year, keep in mind that the journalists at the MSM are paid to increase ratings/circulation. Not only are they not scientists or doctors themselves, they are often not even able to discern between legit science/medicine and will most often, go with the views that sensationalize the story.
Of course they would. These are not non profit businesses. Ratings determine profits and there is no business that would forego profitable opportunies(like exploiting the coronavirus coverage to the max).
They frequently have altruistic motives...........based on their personal belief system that they impose on everybody else that uses them for a source of news.
Some previous threads/discussions on the Corona Virus:
Coronavirus
28 responses |
Started by metmike - Jan. 25, 2020, 11:38 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46353/
China finds virus code
11 responses |
Started by wglassfo - Feb. 1, 2020, 4:01 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46800/
Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak Across the World
8 responses |
Started by metmike - Feb. 4, 2020, 7:25 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46972/
"They frequently have altruistic motives..."
Don't you mean "ulterior motives"?
Hi Mike
Your info is already out of date
The info given us did show a down ward slope but then went back up yesterday if I have the correct time zones from where I am posting
We can also assume with a great deaL OF CONFIDENCE THAT CHINA IS NOT TELLING US THE TRUTH
oTHER WISE THEY WOULD ALLOW EVERYBODY WITH expertise to enter the country and examine/have a look etc to determine how extensive the problem might be, and find a solution. Their initial code was wrong and debunked so what else is new.
If you are using numbers from WHO or china then your post is worthless/not reliable
I did not read all the info but I doubt any info came from some body from the west who was actually on the ground in china, and can verify the numbers china gives us
Heck they don't even have enough testing kits so how can they report when they can't do proper testing.
50-60-100 million on lock down. What numbers should we believe?? From a communist country that might have a lot to hide from the world
How many testing klts does Africa have???
Don't get me wrong Mike
I don't think it is as serious as we are told, as of now, in the west
But we simply can not believe china so what should we believe. Your info?? The WHO organization that gets it's info from China???
IMHO there is no reliable info
Sorry about the caps. my bad
"They frequently have altruistic motives..."
Don't you mean "ulterior motives"?
Hi pj
I really did mean altruistic motives.
No doubt there are also ulterior motives sometimes but also, simultaneously with altruistic motives.
A large % of journalists/tv news anchors are progressive liberals.
Why is that we might ask?
Progressive activists want to change the world for the better (defined by their personal belief system) and reporting the news to millions, when you are the media, is the best way to project your messages(with mostly altruistic motives) to people on a large scale.
It would be crazy to think that CNN's news anchors, or NYT editors for instance got into the business because they wanted to mess up the world or be dishonest in their reporting.
It's just the opposite, they did it with altruistic motives. However, their belief systems and cognitive bias's as humans causes them to interpret the news thru their subjective prisms, then project it in their reporting, often unintentionally. This sends out messages, embedded within the stories that they write/report on, which imposes their belief system on those that use them for a news source.
Here's a great, real life example of somebody that got into the business entirely with altruistic motives.
I was the main weather anchor at WEHT in Evansvile IN for 11 years. Out of 4 news directors that we had during that time frame, the best one was John Hmurovich.
He started as a reporter years earlier(which is often where the main news anchors start their careers) but was not cut out to be a main news anchor.
Extremely smart and understood the tv news business but his leadership skills were unparalleled from the standpoint that he focused on ethical things that really mattered, including treating his employees with respect and kindness vs pushing ratings non stop.
He was not into sensationalizing the news for ratings but instead in telling it honestly and rooting out injustices. I think that most reporters and then news anchors start with this mindset............but some begin to lose touch with that idea.
News directors go to a different level because they have to answer to the General Manager and the owner.............who usually care most about ratings and profits.
What happens with most news directors, is that shortly after moving up to that position, they adjust their priorities because they are now evaluated/judged with more scrutiny by their bosses based on the bottom line........ratings, which helps determine the price they can charge for commercials and thus, how much money they make.
A news director with plummeting news ratings will get no sympathy if the reason is that they are being more honest with the news or the news is making the world a better place vs making the station a more profitable place(for the owner) with sensationalized news.
Just after 2 years with John as our News Director, he got us all together and told everybody that he was resigning. This was horrible news. He was the best. However, we were still a very strong #2 in the market(for ratings) and the owner was apparently on him relentlessly about making us #1 and ratings.
The ratings business and competition in tv is extremely cut throat in certain markets. He knew that the quality of our product/news was top notch, ethical and had other things in mind rather than sensationalizing for ratings.
So John told us that when he started in the business it was entirely to try to use his position to try to make the world a better place..............which is purely altruistic and why I used that word earlier. When he was promoted from reporter to news director, it empowered him even more to try to accomplish that.........which is why he accepted that position.
Well, during his 2 years working as news director, he was constantly informed that, NO, his job was not to try to make the world a better place, it was to increase ratings and make more money for Jim Gilmore, the owner.
His wife Bev had a high paying job at Bristol Myers. They both decided to quit their jobs to go to one of the country's in the Eastern Europe block that left communism in the late 1980's to teach them capitalism and democracy.
Wow! Both dropping important, high paying jobs in order to do something else for a fraction of the monetary compensation that they thought would make the world a better place.
https://origins.osu.edu/article/1989-twenty-years-end-communism-and-fate-eastern-europe
John was a quintessential example of somebody with altruistic motives that I think defines most progressive liberals who get into the business of reporting the news.
But John was not willing to sacrifice his ethical standards to accommodate the ones above him (who are in it to make money).
Many people in news, weather and sports feel pressured at times to adjust what they do so that its in sync with the profit motive.
Just the fact that their jobs completely depend on it.
You can bet that Alex the Anchor with a 80% favorable rating on the #1 newscast can have that job forever and demand the highest salary as long as those numbers hold up.
Angie the Anchor, on the other hand, with a 65% favorable rating on the #2 newscast will not only get paid less, she will constantly be pushed to get those numbers higher.
If those numbers dropped to 61%, for example and her news to #3,.....and stayed down there for numerous periods or even dropped more, it's likely that she would become Angie the ex-anchor.
No matter what the quality of her work was.
"Your info is already out of date"
That info is updating automatically every day Wayne, including thru today February 8, 2020 in this thread and all the threads at Marketforum with it.
Test me on that.
Come back tomorrow and you should see that its updated thru Feb 9th.
On Monday, it will be updated thru Feb 10th.
So pull up this post in 24 hours and see if the data isn't 1 day fresher.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
Semi-log plot of daily new confirmed cases and deaths in China.
While nobody knows everything for sure about the Coronavirus and how much worse it will get, its been with us now long enough now to know many things with at least moderate confidence.............which are all consistent with everything that I've been stating here for 3 weeks.
People continue to use uncertainty as a reason to push wild speculation into the land of alarmism instead of basing things on KNOWN facts.
If these are all known facts
Why is the CDC not allowed to confirm the 'known" numbers
813 deaths according to that info -- 09
Many from china on social media say the numbers are much higher
In fact no information was kept of many earlier deaths, family members have no access to deceased, etc.
And we are expected to believe these numbers that come from china???
The country that punished the doctors for spreading false information??
The virus that is already worse in many ways than SARS and china tried to cover it up
89
The biggest one day increase yet
Maybe tomorrow will be 79
So we can say the down ward spiral is intact
If the above violates protocol , my apologies and please delete
kermit,
Absolutely no violation or anything close to it. We are grateful to you for posting on this stuff thats out there. Post on it all you want.
Violations are basically for personal attacks on fellow posters, unacceptable language or for posts that are offensive using hate speech intended to offend others here.
Everything else goes here.
I especially like opinions and information that are different than mine. It gives me an opportunity to think about other points of view, then evaluate authentic data to try to discern the truth.
On this particular topic, we don't know the complete truth yet.
We have the data and information that has been given to us ............which is telling us many important things..........that I am trying to communicate in my posts.
There are still enough unknowns to allow for wild speculation of really bad scenarios and bad origins/intents.
As more information comes in, the speculation about scary outcomes should go down but I appreciate VERY MUCH you posting speculative information. Sometimes, it turns out to be right.
Appreciate you asking and not wanting to violate rules.
Just that comment of yours tells us that you have the mindset of somebody that we want to encourage to post here even more!!
HI Mike
Remember way back, when you asked me where am I getting my info
I had posted information, not known to you or many others
Then it became known as mostrly true info I had posted
Now you are posting info that is essentially coming from china as being the true situation
Now I realize the MSM has an agenda and is not a good source of info
But the above post should make you ask yourself if your info is accurate
You are using china info
China seems to have a really good reason to not want outside experts in china
The above post may not be completely accurate as a fair amount of opinion is scattered through out
However, a different story is beginning to emerge
That being that china does not want outside experts to dig around in this virus, or their country
You should ask yourself why and stop posting info from china as the ultimate truth
China may appreciate people like you to spread their propaganda,
Who knows, I don't
And I hope you realize your posts are about on the same level of truth as the MSM in this situation
WHO and CDC has asked to be allowed inside china and told no way that will happen
But you post info from WHO which is probably not accurate
There are simply too many holes in the china story to be believable
Such as the new cases being reported as being the same yesterday and today. Is that possible??
Does any of this make you ask, the truth of your information sources and your posts
I believe I posted that china won't do much for the common person
That post was not well worded
New information indicates that the upper echelon of party officials must be protected, then lower officials and the common person is not very important, in that order
We can now safely assume these new hospitals, with bars on the windows are nothing but a giant incubator where people simply go to die
That cruise ship is also an incubator for the virus, although one cruise ship did leave port
Sealing off large portions of the population, will not work but that is what communism usually thinks or acts
The lower common person has no rights
Will we lose our rights in the name of supposed greater security from outside threat???
Typical case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time, according to the people on the cruise ship or many cities in china
I also posted people can not survive in a house with out food, water etc and now we have rumours of people being shot leaving the house in search of food or water
Could you store 3 days of water in your house. Many could but seems like some can't
China is doing everything wrong for one reason
I think a giant cover up of a bio weapon
Why else refuse access from the CDC of WHO into china
go to the lower part of the linked articles, and find lots of videos directly from China
Wayne,
Where the heck are you getting this from?
Again, you are welcome to say crazy, completely unsubstantiated things here based on wild speculation of the unknown but I am just asking for the evidence...........if you want me to take it seriously.
For instance:
"We can now safely assume these new hospitals, with bars on the windows are nothing but a giant incubator where people simply go to die"
How can this be if 2-3% of people infected die(mostly sick and elderly) and the other 97-98% recover. Unless, as suggested from that statement that almost everybody that gets the virus dies and China is just hiding it.............but wait, we know with absolute certainty that can't be and doesn't make any sense Wayne because people outside of China have been infected and its not spreading and killing outside of China in the manner that you seem to want to believe is really happening in China but is being covered up.
Is the entire world covering up for China?
"now we have rumours of people being shot leaving the house in search of food or water"
Really? What are the sources?
"You should ask yourself why and stop posting info from china as the ultimate truth
China may appreciate people like you to spread their propaganda"
I've been accused of a lot of things, usually in my mission to bust propaganda but this is the first time I am accused of actually spreading propaganda........from China.
Don't worry Wayne. I'm not offended nor do I take it personal. I'm just providing the most reliable information the world has right now, along with unemotional interpretations that include perspective and common sense along with comparisons to the MUCH more serious threat to us in North American, the flu.
Is all this information accurate or perfect or complete? Probably not but as a scientist, I'm trying to use the best information out there and apply known principles of science, biology, medicine and in this case................human psychology and the overpowering tendency thru all of time for humans to magnify their fears of the unknown multiple times greater than the actual risk is.
I can't think of any recent scares that turned out much worse than anybody expected but maybe this will be the one.
I have zero opinion on the origin of this virus. Maybe the Chinese did cause it...........maybe they didn't. There isn't enough information that I can interpret to know with confidence either way. I will wait for more facts before taking an opinion.
On the rest of it, where I have expressed an opinion, the facts since then have been consistent with my original thoughts. When those facts change, I'll immediately adust my opinion/projections.
Here's another reality check regarding some of the extreme statements..........that for some reason get believed like they are gospel with zero evidence.
Gunter just posted a source that states this:
"Exiled Chinese billionaire says true death toll closer to 50k, 1.5 million infected."
OK, this more than 50 times higher than the numbers the Chinese are telling us about. I think that its very likely that the Chinese are not being completely honest and the real numbers are higher(but we only have the numbers that we have Wayne) but it would be ludicrous, to base things off of 1 persons extreme, speculative statement with no evidence to substantiate it.
If you do the math Wayne, even with those higher numbers, the fatality rate is still just 3%, so the Chinese are certainly not sending people to incubators to die, when almost everybody is recovering.
People outside of China with the virus are not dying at a rate any higher than that, so with extraordinarily high confidence, we can say that..........unless the virus mutates into something else, it is NOT going to start killing people at a higher rate than that.
Maybe the virus is more contagious then what we are being told. We will see but again, this is what to compare it to:
Flu Kills 646,000 People Worldwide Each Year: Study
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914
But the flu isn't scary because we've lived(and died) with it all of our lives.
The coronavirus appears to be like a very bad strain of the flu virus. Whether it was created or morphed from an animal................the effect on humans will be the same. The treatments will be the same. The vaccine will be the same.
Clearly it's causing chaos in China, the world's most populous country right now. That by itself is rattling the markets and a legit cause of concern. But it doesn't change the scientific facts about what it is and what it will do.
Those are not all known for sure................except the fatality rate is not likely to be much higher than 3% and it appears that we may be close to the peak in the increasing rate of it spreading and killing.
Wayne, don't confuse that with the number of deaths and newly infected going down..........that won't happen for awhile yet(nor would it be expected to for at least another month or 2). What that means is that the increase in the daily numbers, over time may not be as big of an increase as previous days.
Example for you:
If we go from 10,000 to 11,000 to 12,200 to 13,500 to 15,000, there is an increase and also an increase in the rate of the daily increase....because the + change is greater every day.
Then, if we go from 15,000 to 16,500, to 17,800 to 19,000 to 20,000 the changes in those numbers show a DECREASE in the rate of daily increase. ..because the +change is LESS than the change from the previous day.
If this is what we are seeing, then its a good sign(and earlier than expected). Those were just hypothetical numbers to illustrate the point but it will take a long time for the daily increases to actually be lower than the day before, which would be like going from 20,000 to 19,900 to 19,700, to 19,400 to 19,000.
I am very grateful to you guys for posting this stuff here. Please continue to do so as I'm certain that others are reading the same things that you do and feel the exact same way.
Just passing on the latest scary headlines:
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-10-20-intl-hnk/index.html
From CNN's Kevin Liptak
"President Trump repeated his belief that a coronavirus outbreak in China could subside when temperatures rise with the changing seasons, despite expert opinion that it’s too early to make such a linkage.
Speaking to US governors at the White House, Trump said the temperature issue arose last week in his telephone conversation with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
“The heat generally speaking kills this kind of virus,” Trump said, citing an assessment Xi offered him over the phone.
“That would be a good thing,” Trump went on.
Earlier, Trump said “a lot of people think that goes away in April, with the heat.”
More on this: Trump first raised his theory about coronavirus and warmer weather in a tweet last week. Afterward, infectious disease experts told CNN that it's too early to say whether warmer temperatures would weaken the virus.
"It would be reckless to assume that things will quiet down in spring and summer," said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine in Texas.
"We don't really understand the basis of seasonality, and of course we know we absolutely nothing about this particular virus," Hotez said.
"
metmike: Interesting that their intent is to make Trump look bad and as if he is saying things that he doesn't have a clue about............but there's a very high chance that he's exactly right and is one of the BEST informed on this based on the known science.
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/health/research/05flu.html
Flu season in northern latitudes is from November to March, the coldest months.
Higher moisture environments, which exist with warmer temperatures because they can hold com much more moisture = VERY UNfavorable for virus survival.
When it warms up in the northern hemisphere this Spring and especially into Summer's heat, the environment will likely become VERY UNfavorable for the Coronavirus.
https://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-01/fyi-why-winter-flu-season/
HI Mike
I am waiting for you to understand that china info which WHO reports is unreliable
Who is on the ground but nobody knows if they are sworn to secrecy.
Just a guess on my part
I am not saying this is the worst pandemic ever, just that china is/has been trying to distort the truth
The doctor that died is exhibit A
If you want to know why, it's the chinese economy and the politburo hold on power that is at risk
Several factors, that make no sense, too numerous to post will become evident in due coarse
Are we seeing the tip of the ice burg , I do not have an answer to that question
Time will tell
February 11, 2020 /
WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus was addressing the start of a two-day meeting aimed at accelerating development of drugs, diagnostics and vaccines against the flu-like virus amid growing concerns about its ability to spread.
To date China has reported 42,708 confirmed cases, including 1,017 deaths, Tedros said.
“With 99% of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world,” he told more than 400 researchers and national authorities,
“We hope that one of the outcomes of this meeting will be an agreed roadmap for research around which researchers and donors will align,” Tedros told the closed-door meeting, according to remarks made available by the U.N. agency.
“The bottom line is solidarity, solidarity, solidarity.
That is especially true in relation to sharing of samples and sequences,” Tedros said. “To defeat this outbreak, we need open and equitable sharing, according to the principles of fairness and equity.”
Wayne,
While you don't have to do this, it makes it much easier to follow if you make your new posts about the Coronavirus(and other stuff) under threads that are already actively discussing that topic.
Otherwise, like we have now, there are a handful of threads going at the same time and each of them is discussing the same thing, like the list below.
This is just a suggestion but especially when the points in the new thread have already been covered and discussed in old threads. It's ok to make old points again if you want to and its great to post anything that you want as long as you are not making personal attacks or using inappropriate language.
Where does my info come from
6 responses |
Started by wglassfo - Feb. 10, 2020, 2:42 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47204/
Coronavirus
28 responses |
Started by metmike - Jan. 25, 2020, 11:38 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46353/
China finds virus code
11 responses |
Started by wglassfo - Feb. 1, 2020, 4:01 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46800/
Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak Across the World
8 responses |
Started by metmike - Feb. 4, 2020, 7:25 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46972/
Corona Virus
21 responses |
Started by kermit - Feb. 8, 2020, 11:30 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47120/
U.S. Stocks Rise as Rate of New Coronavirus Cases Slows
Updated Feb. 11, 2020 2:59 pm ET
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-rise-as-rate-of-new-coronavirus-cases-slows-11581417859
I'm adding this post from another thread yesterday because its important to make the point to those that may have missed it:
Re: Re: Re: Where does my info come from
By metmike - Feb. 10, 2020, 7:03 p.m.
Let me help you out with additional information Wayne, although you've decided from the get go to ignore my reality posts and to instead, believe the most extreme, alarmist, speculative stories.
1. You referred to the increased levels of CO2 from burning bodies as evidence of a million bodies being secretly burned, your quote: reporting possibly 1.5 million cremated in china First of all, the increase is in SO2, sulfur dioxide not carbon dioxide, CO2.
2. Wuhan is home to the huge steel mills of the world’s second largest producer, the China Baowu Steel Group, which merged with Wuhan Iron and Steel Corporation in 2016. Steel mills emit tremendous amounts of SO2. A picture of Wuhan from a year ago would probably show the same thing.............from the steel mills!
This is the picture below circulating around which supposedly shows the evidence of all those bodies being cremated. Note the peak value in SO2 of 1351. Is this from cremating bodies?
Answer below.
If this is from burning bodies, then Russia is burning even more bodies than China! Note the peak value of 1627 from today at Norilsk Russia below.
Jan Eskil Flåm @FlamJanCheck out Norilsk in Russia, then stop pushing this agenda ... its just idiotic.
2
metmike: So Wayne and others, these plants are burning tons of coal which releases massive amounts of SO2! A picture of this same spot from 2019, a year ago would likely have shown the same thing.
As the 2nd largest steel producer in the world. Wuhan alone accounts for 85KT of SO2 output a year, which is (on average) 162kg a minute. Every single minute.
Report on the Environment / Sulfur Dioxide Emissions
file:///C:/Users/Basement/Downloads/SO2-emissions.pdf
"Sulfur dioxide (SO2) belongs to the family of sulfur oxide (SOx) gases. These gases are formed when fuel containing sulfur (mainly coal and oil) is burned (e.g., for electricity generation) and during metal smelting and other industrial processes. High concentrations of SO2 are associated with multiple health and environmental effects. The highest concentrations of SO2 have beenrecorded in the vicinity of large industrial facilities"
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Re: Re: Where does my info come from
By metmike - Feb. 10, 2020, 7:13 p.m.
It really is sad that unreliable sources with these insane speculative theories and alarmist stories get online to scare people.
This person covers it well:
https://www.cbronline.com/opinion/china-burning-people-conspiracy
"(Social media amplification has, meanwhile, made it clear that the old dictum “a lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on” is no longer enough: a lie circumvents the world several times before the truth has even realized it needs its pants.)"
Here is the latest graph of cases and deaths in China. This is the same one I've shown here numerous times the past few weeks. Using math/science at the top of this thread several days ago, we pointed out the decreasing slope and the potentially good news that it suggested...........which is being confirmed, as you can see that the slower rate of daily increase, as one would expect with this trend, is continuing and even looks like the number of new daily cases is actually decreasing.
It's still early and nothing is for sure but these numbers are actually even better than I was expecting at this point based on the situation just a couple of weeks ago.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
Semi-log plot of daily new confirmed cases and deaths in China.[112]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
On 6 February, the Chinese National Health Commission started to change how cases were reported – asymptomatic carriers, who tested positive for the virus but did not show clinical symptoms, would no longer be included in the number of confirmed cases. This had the effect of reducing the total number of cases reported, but also meant that potentially contagious individuals were ignored in reports.[77][78]
On 12 February, the Hubei government adopted a broader definition of confirmed cases, which now includes "clinically diagnosed" patients diagnosed by their symptoms and CT scans but without nucleic acid test, which can take days to process and delay treatment. "Using CT scans that reveal lung infection would help patients receive treatment as soon as possible and improve their chances of recovery," the provincial health commission said.[79] This new methodology accounts for the sharp increase in Hubei's daily confirmed cases: 13,332 of the 14,840 newly confirmed case in the province on 12 February was diagnosed clinically under the new definition.[80]
To some extent wglassfo was partly right in that we cannot trust the information from china.
Also check out the non logarithic graph chart on this site
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
"Based on cases reported and assuming a 10-day delay between infection and detection, researchers at Northeastern University estimated that the number of actual infections may be much higher than those confirmed at the time of reporting. Northeastern University estimated 21,300 infections by 26 January, "
cutworm; 1-26 reported 2744, Northeastern University estimated 21,300 infections.
Edit; 10 days later 28010 cases
Thanks cutworm,
Your link is the same one that I've been providing on a regular basis because of the wonderful graphs.
Everybody's assumption that we can't trust the data from China or trust China is EXACTLY what led to the massive flood of disinfomation.
People are thinking "this is deceitful China. China would never be open and tell us how bad it really is. They must be covering it up, so it must be much worse than they are telling us!!!"
Millions of people were ready to believe anything as wild speculation has no limits when it involves the unknown.
The burning/cremating of over a million bodies hoax for instance..........using a picture that shows SO2 from coal burning at their massive steel plant complex.
No doubt that China is not telling us everything and we should always be skeptical of things that come from China but we still have to remain within the confines of reasonable science/medicine when speculating on things that we do not know.
For instance, we know that, maybe as much as 3% of people that get this virus may die(mostly sick and elderly).
Using that fact and that 97% of people recover and many of them might not even know that they had the virus because the symptoms were not bad, keeps us grounded to reality.
Or that 646,000 people get killed by the flu each year on the planet.
Nobody can say for sure what the yearly total killed by the corona virus will be but I'd be willing to bet money that it will be just a fraction of that.
Let's say that it was 64,000? or 10%.
In years with an especially potent strain of the flu going around, increases in deaths are more than 10% above that average..........The flu is a virus. The Coronavirus is also a virus.
It's not some scary new organism from another world that is going to mutate into an entity that wipes out half of the human race............just another (very potent) virus, not that different from the flu that we live(and die) with and accept because the flu is everywhere......every year.
Mike, lets assume that china is not "trying" to cover anything up. We know that the data from feb 6 to feb 12 was not collected the same way as before feb 5, and is different than data collected after feb 12 therefore the equation changed during that time. Therefore the points feb6-feb12 must be discarded. The graph that showed the downward concave needs to be adjusted. Consistent data is necessary.
cutworm,
I understand completely that we can't trust data from China(and you are making a wonderful point) and that this is a brand new virus with many unknowns and the last piece of information in the last day that shows that its suddenly not getting better at the rate that we were thinking earlier this week is exactly part of this process.
I have actually been surprised earlier this week that it was getting better already as commented yesterday:
"It's still early and nothing is for sure but these numbers are actually even better than I was expecting at this point based on the situation just a couple of weeks ago. "
So we had this new data point in and reconfigure the meaning of the graph based on the new information, that includes the science/medical element.
Until earlier this week, I was not expecting any signs of improvement for a very long time, so the new data is completely within expectations and does NOT mean it much worse than we thought.
It means its worse than we thought compared to earlier this week.........but not worse than we thought compared to 2 weeks ago or 3 weeks ago(its as expected from my attempted objective position). Here's the graph with the outlier data point.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
Where do we go from here?
There are 2 paths using the data and we MUST use the data we are given. Even if China is covering up, the truth will show up in the data............but just take longer. We also have data from the rest of the world to compare it to.
Possible path #1. If the last data point shows what is really happening and the previous ones were intentionally made lower to mislead..............we will know from new data points and can assume that its still getting worse at the same rate that it was on the first half of the graph(exponentially higher for some time as expected) . Keep in mind, everybody is assuming that this outlier data point is proof that there is a cover up by China. Could be.......or it could also be a function of other unique elements in the data gathering process because nothing quite like this has ever happened before.
Possible path#2. The new data points go back to showing a decreasing slope that suggest we've passed the inflection point and the rate of the increase in the daily numbers is getting better(not lower numbers or a lower increase but the rate of the increase is less). This will happen first...........well before we see the actual daily numbers drop.
Regardless, we can still ignore some of the more extreme facts/ predictions from alarmists because the science and facts don't support that...............like the burning of a million bodies picture that was actually from burning coal(when we used LEGIT science to bust it)
From yesterday:
Key Points
Latest graph. The date of the change in the way that they catagorized confirmed cases is obvious on the graph. Other than this short term adjustment in the slope and values on the graph, it may not affect the more important LONGER TERM metrics which actually matter.
More data is needed to confirm that this was just an outlier spike higher.
Again, we may not see cases and deaths going down each day for awhile.......possibly next month or April???
Don't hold me to that. It's not a prediction just a wild guess.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
Semi-log plot of daily new confirmed cases and deaths in China.[112]
We have another data point added since my last comment yesterday(even though it shows up and is updated automatically in all of the previous posts with it).
I'm so focused on this particular graph because it shows numbers. Whether you want to believe them or not, it's the BEST indicator..........by a wide margin of what the situation is.
No fear/emotions.
No sensationalizing.
No editorializing in stories.
No fake news, like the cremating of a million bodies.
The Feb 14 data point shows a 2nd straight day where the number plunged............not at all because the number of cases plunged in reality but because the 1 day spike higher from 2 days earlier, was in fact an outlier and tied to the way that China reports actual cases.............not necessarily a cover up as this is an unprecedented event and its not as if they were not following protocol. New protocol is being established right now and being adjusted because we are in uncharted territory.
To confirm this 1 day spike was an outlier and not part of it being MUCH worse than we thought, we need a few more data points that don't show a sharp turn higher. If we get those points, it doesn't mean that we are close to being out of the woods, just that its progressing in a manner expected by known science and medicine and what we don't know about this new virus isn't packed with big (bad) surprises.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
Semi-log plot of daily new confirmed cases and deaths in China.
Here are the previous links on the Coronavirus again:
Coronavirus
28 responses |
Started by metmike - Jan. 25, 2020, 11:38 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46353/
China finds virus code
11 responses |
Started by wglassfo - Feb. 1, 2020, 4:01 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46800/
Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak Across the World
8 responses |
Started by metmike - Feb. 4, 2020, 7:25 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46972/
Corona Virus
21 responses |
Started by kermit - Feb. 8, 2020, 11:30 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47120/
Where does my info come from
6 responses |
Started by wglassfo - Feb. 10, 2020, 2:42 p.m.
Another day, another data point. The additional drop is more good news but its just 1 day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
Semi-log plot of daily new confirmed cases and deaths in China.
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-15-20-intl-hnk/index.html
Spike in numbers: There's been a spike in numbers because China changed how cases are tabulated. The total will now include people who demonstrate all the symptoms of Covid-19 but have not been tested, or are believed to have falsely tested negative.
https://www.sott.net/article/429210-How-to-prevent-coronavirus-Start-smoking
From the wierd and wonderful file.
Old news you may not have seen. So a bio weapon attack. But were did it originate?
Thanks kermit, Yes, I did see that old news..........in fact a couple of times previously right here by you guys.
On the origin of the virus I actually have no idea.
However, I am sticking to reliable, measured/verified data, facts and known principles of science and medicine............which is what has been featured here. I can stress the importance of using that to form opinions vs believing in scares and hoaxes based on wild speculation but still appreciate you guys sharing the hoaxes with us............they are out there and its been a wonderful opportunity to obliterate them here for you.
Did you happen to read this one?
They didn't even list the one about 1.5 million bodies being burned in massive incenerators with the bogus satellite picture that came from SO2 emitted from coal burning.............but I got that one covered for you above, early in the outbreak when we had less information.
Hi Mike
You say you are sticking to verified etc etc. information
What makes you think your information is verifiable
I will admit, You may be closer than the rest of us
But: I seriously doubt there is any verified information on the chin virus, although some countries outside china seem to be closer to verifiable
To say we are going with the "best" information we have might be closer to the truth
But then
Who says what is the "best" information we have
Sorry the post above was so long the answer may have escaped me
I so, please inform me and my apologies for missing why this information can be verified
I am going to stick this post here for the sake of keeping it all together
What do you think about china trying to ecourage workers to go back to work
After the huge drop in numbers the people don't know who to believe, or if they should believe their leaders
Are their lives so worthless that co-mingling with possible virus carriers is less important than GDP and getting the country back to work
What would it take for millions to take up pitch forks and attack their leaders
This is no joke
The politburo is more worried about a civilian rebellion than any other problem
If the politburo losses control of the military they are dead, literally
Remember, many in the military have families and also those in the military may be exposed to the virus
The thing is: the unknown is often more fearful than the known
If the citizens don't know who or what to believe, that could be dangerous
China is no stranger to revolution
Wayne,
I agree that we can't trust China about anything.
However, it would be impossible to hide the crazy speculative extreme things that contradict the best information that we have coming out of China.
There are plenty of people inside of China that would have witnessed these things and reported them to the world if they really existed.
The virus is outside of China and we trust all the stats/info from those sources.
Those outside source stats are consistent with everything that is being reported by China, so why would we NOT believe the stuff China is telling us?
People outside of China that are infected are not dying at a higher rate than expected...........same mortality rate as we are told is happening in China.
It has always appeared to be a very contagious virus but not any more than what China has been telling us.
Too many people ASSUME that because its China, that it must be worse than what they are telling us.
There has been no evidence to support that assumption.
Here's the latest:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
Semi-log plot of daily new confirmed cases and deaths in China.
Other than the 1 day, isolated spike higher which was very explainable based on China changing the criteria for how they decide to include a person being infected......the graph above is actually looking better than what I thought it would look like a month ago.
If there was something nefarious related to that 1 date point spike higher, then we likely would not be seeing numbers continuing to drop for most days since then.
It's still possible that things could start getting worse again or get real bad in other countries but there is zero evidence to support that based on the facts that we do know.
I am still not going to be busting those air blister packaging in amazon just yet
Do not trust any government. PRC, USA CDA
Look at USDA.
It would be hard to pick a winner at honesty. So this begs the question? Who is really running the show. Is there a deepstate?Are we being fed stories ?
You know the official story. Missile fired by mistake. Maintenance worker steals plane and does acrobatics.
A more believable story?
So in time a story will come out that is believable about this virus. But it will take time. Until then use common sense.
This will just add to the confusion
Why did china bring in 40 [I think the number is correct as this is old news] portable incinerators
Why is china building 19 new hospitals although I have seen no evidence of construction start up [this construction may have escaped me]
What are the people supposed to do after drones flew through out cities and berated anybody on the street for not covering their face, even on a balcony
Now they are being asked to report for work on Monday, I assume
The people know the virus is not under control, so they are in a difficult position while the politburo is telling them their life is worthless, as going to work will surly expose them to infected co-workers
Is that why the mobile incinerators are on stand by. The people have no idea, so Monday should be interesting
China has a vested interest in getting a revenue stream started as they have some big debts coming due very soon
China has been a net seller of USA securities [at least the last time I looked]
China has a pile of gold but I have an idea they don't want to sell gold for debt relief
I think we can believe outside sources for infections and death rate, more so then china, although Monday WHO press announcement should be interesting
Who has been accussed of simply repeating china info, will Monday press release, by WHO tell us anything new???
The bigger danger seems to be economic rather than numbers of infections and deaths, with the 1st indication of economic problems, with china wanting workers to report for work on Monday
A lot of questions might be answered soon, especially as the outside world starts to give us info, both economic and infections etc.
I can't answer all your questions Wayne but appreciate the comments.
Here is my take today. I get on the computer and look up the latest news about the coronavirus on many days. Today, I'm reading about the outbreak in Italy and many stories that make it appear to be much worse than expected. Emotionally, this causes an initial reaction that tells me its getting really bad. Then, I look at the numbers and think about the science and other stuff and remember that I was actually thinking it could be much worse at this point.(numbers are not soaring higher in China).
And other facts..........Spring/warmer temperatures will help kill the coronavirus(it likes cold and dry) and a vaccine later this year will lessen the spread.
Then, I realize that it is NOT worse than expected(for me at least) and the outlook to manage it is still excellent.
We should expect outbreaks in different countries for awhile yet, similar to what is happening in Italy right now, so we are not even close to maxing out on the scary, bad news stories.............and some of them will have legit concerns and data, even as they speculate.
Pretty amazing video.........just for you Wayne (-:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1231628241334566913
Do you think the Chinese might be serious about containing the outbreak (-:
The numbers suggest that it's working.
Hey Mike
Not wanting to start a food fight
But a person has to seriously question your numbers etc. Do they mean anything just because they have a graph and numbers
Why is this the best info possible
I think the numbers are meaningless
Example
Last Thursday Hubei province reported 349 new cases
Good news as this was a significant drop in new cases of infection
But now comes the bad news
Wahun reported 615 new cases of infectiom all by itself ion Thursday
As you know Hubei is in the province of Hubei
Obviously china is doctoring the numbers
They can't even get their story straight
One doctor reported 50 cases of new infection but china reported one new case
This is silly
And you keep on reporting your information as the best available
You info may be the best available but when there is no good information, what is it worth???
The world knows this
Wapo and other journalists have reported on the unbelievable china numbers
Why don't we just wait until we get better information from countries outside of china as the disease/infections moves across the globe
So far, available info has proven to be mostly just made up numbers
Hey Mike
"Not wanting to start a food fight
But a person has to seriously question your numbers etc. Do they mean anything just because they have a graph and numbers
Why is this the best info possible
Why don't we just wait until we get better information from countries outside of china as the disease/infections moves across the globe
So far, available info has proven to be mostly just made up numbers"
Don't worry Wayne, we won't be having a food fight or me getting defensive over your statements. As I've mentioned before, your posts are much appreciated because there are millions like you out there being fed with unsubstantiated speculation and tons of fake news. This is the age of information, including false and misleading information and there are no scientific gatekeepers that only let verified information thru or medically sound, rational articles.
In this age, it's getting harder and harder to tell the authentic stuff from the fraudulent or unsubstantiated stuff. In politics, science, medicine..........all realms.
As a scientist, I try to scrutinize everything and do a ton of investigation/research to verify/confirm or bust whatever comes up here. I try to analyze it objectively using science and known data.
You are always welcome to embrace that information with an open mind and you are just as welcome to post unsubstantiated speculation that disagrees with it.
I don't have much to add to the dozens of other posts because they made the relevant points numerous times which are still valid, even those from last month..........so you can read it over again if you want or feel free to post something else.
There is still more to come and still alot that is NOT known and I don't know what that will be but will try to post it.
And I do read and take every post of yours seriously.
metmike
Some previous threads/discussions on the Corona Virus:
Coronavirus
28 responses |
Started by metmike - Jan. 25, 2020, 11:38 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46353/
China finds virus code
11 responses |
Started by wglassfo - Feb. 1, 2020, 4:01 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46800/
Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak Across the World
8 responses |
Started by metmike - Feb. 4, 2020, 7:25 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46972/
You said I was free to post "unsubstantiated" information
Aw come on Mike. That's going a bit too far
I must have posted some thing correct or at least as correct as your posts in some tiny little bit of information
Let's settle on the 40 mobile incinerators moved into Hubei
Nobody knows because as far as I know nobody has actually seen them
But: it could be true
Or what about the wild life industry in rural china
Is that true
Or the possibility wild life may have started this whole thing
I doubt wild life trading in the market was the sole cause but ????
Maybe I posted some thing correct
Seems to me I posted the bigger danger would be an economic problem for china and the world
Can't remember but if I didn't I should have
You said I was free to post "unsubstantiated" information
Aw come on Mike. That's going a bit too far
I must have posted some thing correct or at least as correct as your posts in some tiny little bit of information
Let's settle on the 40 mobile incinerators moved into Hubei
Nobody knows because as far as I know nobody has actually seen them
But: it could be true
Or what about the wild life industry in rural china
Is that true
Or the possibility wild life may have started this whole thing
I doubt wild life trading in the market was the sole cause but ????
Maybe I posted some thing correct
Seems to me I posted the bigger danger would be an economic problem for china and the world
Can't remember but if I didn't I should have
You said I was free to post "unsubstantiated" information
Aw come on Mike. That's going a bit too far
I must have posted some thing correct or at least as correct as your posts in some tiny little bit of information
Let's settle on the 40 mobile incinerators moved into Hubei
Nobody knows because as far as I know nobody has actually seen them
But: it could be true
Or what about the wild life industry in rural china
Is that true
Or the possibility wild life may have started this whole thing
I doubt wild life trading in the market was the sole cause but ????
Maybe I posted some thing correct
Seems to me I posted the bigger danger would be an economic problem for china and the world
Can't remember but if I didn't I should have
Giving us the sources of this information would be the first step in substantiating it Wayne.
From my brother Brian, who lives in Portland:
There is still a lot we don't know about the virus, but what we do know is worth noting. The items below are fluid since we can only theorize from the limited data we have.
1 28 countries are reporting cases, with spikes in numbers in South Korea.
2. Someone can be infected and not show symptoms for 14 days
3. Someone who is not showing symptoms can be contagious.
4. 80% of the people who contract the virus have mild symptoms, and might think they have the common flu.
All of the above make it easier to spread and harder to contain.
5. 20% of the people have severe symptoms which might require hospitalization.
6. 2.5% of the people die.
If it becomes widespread, we won't have the resources to deal with all of the severe patients.
There is still so much we don't know.. It might run its course will little global impact. On the other hand, it might turn into a global pandemic.
I was at Home Depot today and the entire bay that has disposable dust masks was picked clean. I found a bunch tucked away in a different section so I bought some. I'm guessing/hoping I won't need them, but better safe than sorry. Home Depot has a 90 day return policy so I can return them if I don't use them. :)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
 | Coronavirus Cases: Total and Daily with Charts and Statistics - Worldometer Growth Factor of Daily New Cases. Growth factor is the factor by which a quantity multiplies itself over time. The formula used is every day's cases / cases on the previous day.For example, a quantity growing by 7% every period (in this case daily) has a growth factor of 1.07. www.worldometers.info |
My other brother Gary..........who lives in Prague sent this:
https://weather.com/health/news/2020-02-19-coronavirus-death-toll-infections-updates-covid19
Is it common practice to develop a "cure" and /or "vaccine" for a bio weapon as the weapon itself is engineered?
Because,you know,sooner or later something's gonna get loose.
https://www.ft.com/content/a2cffe29-a3f4-35bf-9424-6dee1883d79d
The WHO says coronavirus is not yet a pandemic. Director general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a teleconference in Geneva: For the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this coronavirus, and we are not witnessing large-scale severe disease or death. Does this virus have pandemic potential? Absolutely. Are we there yet? From our assessment not yet. He added: What we see are epidemics in different parts of the world, affecting countries in different ways and requiring a tailored response. The sudden increase in new Covid-19 cases is certainly very concerning. I have spoken consistently about the need for facts, not fear. Using the word pandemic now does not fit the facts, but it may certainly cause fear. Dr Tedros continued: We do not live in a binary, black-and-white world. It’s not either-or. We must focus on containment, while doing everything we can to prepare for a potential pandemic.
what's surprising to me.... no news from Africa, re the virus
Not mentioned on our MSM much, China has made huge investments in a multitude of African countries.... they built highways, factories, hotels, apartment buildings, schools, etc.... and they have sent thousands of their skilled workers to these countries. No doubt, there has been extensive air travel between China and Africa.
Of course, if you don't test people, you don't see anything
Gunter,
Virus's like the flu and coronavirus thrive in cold/dry environments(see explanations above). That's why they strike, mainly during the Winter(flu season).
It's possible that because Africa is so warm, the coronavirus is less able to survive.
Also, I will point out something to you not seen elsewhere. Almost all the reports of the coronavirus are in the Northern Hemisphere.
Travelers are not just sticking to traveling in their own hemisphere.
The Southern Hemisphere is having Summer right now. Warm/hot weather......virus's have a harder time surviving in that environment.
The Northern Hemisphere is having Winter...........and as usual, the flu season that strikes every Winter. The coronavirus will follow most of the same biological principles as the flu virus and appears to be doing so with regards to seasonality here.
This bodes well for outcomes as the Northern Hemisphere warms up in the Spring and heats up in the Summer.
By next flu season, there is a high chance that the coronavirus will still be around and ready for more explosive growth because of cold/dry air and people being more confined.
The vaccine should hopefully be developed by then.
thanks, metmike....good reply!
The link below provides the most comprehensive, world wide and constantly updated statistics on the Coronavirus.
I can't copy these wonderful graphs to provide insight/explanations but they are there for those who want the reliable data.
COVID-19 Coronavirus Outbreak
Last updated: February 24, 2020, 16:45 GMT
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Why is Africa not being affected?
One potential reason is that not as many people travel from Africa to China and vice versa.
Maybe more important..........it's warm/hot in Africa.
Flu virus's survive much longer in cold/dry environments..........see posts above on that.
You will also note that all the countries being infected are in the Northern Hemisphere. Its not like people only travel in their hemisphere.
It's Summer in the Southern Hemisphere, Winter in the Northern Hemisphere. This virus may be doing just like the many flu strains we've come to know and hate......showing seasonality.
We are fortunate this is not November if thats the case........with 3 more months of favorable cold/dry for the coronavirus to spread.
For sure, the Coronavirus is going to be with us for many years. This Spring, when it warms up and Summer when it really heats up,. how will we measure the affects on the Coronavirus?
Since it wasn't around a year ago............we can't, except to use an educated guess based on limited data(from this year).
If it is still going strong in June, for instance, we would not know if it would be 2 or 3 times as bad if it were Winter or if it would make no difference.
Going into next Winter, hopefully a vaccine will be available and that will be EXTREMELY effective at reducing the infection rates. EXTREMELY.
It will be interesting to see if the S.Hemisphere sees an increase during their coming Winter. There are much less people that life down there, so that will be a factor, especially much less people that live in cold/dry environments in the S.Hemisphere.
I think I posted some time ago that a world recession is definitely in the cards
We have been concentrating on infections and deaths while missing the larger picture
As country after country goes into partial lock down and borders close, the world trade will suffer and greatly
I don't know of any country that is self sustaining
With out accesss to goods, services, raw materials, finished goods etc the world will go into recession
China knows this as they tell their workers to go back to work
Debts, bills etc have to have cash flow. The piggy bank will last only so long, even with measures to cope with lack of revenue
The banks need cash flow, the Fed can't sustain a break down in economic activity nor can the PBOC or any world bank
Hang on as recession or depression is coming
The market may have thought about what happens to day, to morrow may be a day to buy the dip but in the end it is trouble with an R or D
Why somebody dumped an impossibly large amount of gold on the market at end of trade is interesting
That may mean some thing, it may mean a margin call needed to be met
Who knows
Yes I know the source, but something to ponder.
Discussion of the problem of calculating the death rate while an epidemic is still ongoing. A very interesting read IMHO. A good discussion of why the death rate might be higher than the 2% number.. Of course the % doesn't mean a lot if you are the unlucky one.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct
