KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, February 10, 2020
9:30 AM ET. SEC Fixed Income Market Structure Advisory Committee Meeting
10:00 AM ET. January Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 109.68)
ETI, Y/Y%
N/A U.S. President Donald Trump releases Fiscal Year 2021 Budget
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9192.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 9471.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9192.76. Second resistance is the January 27th low crossing at 8925.50. Third support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8855.64.
The March S&P 500 was higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3236.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3340.90. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3295.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3236.26.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's losses. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, last-August's high crossing at 165-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-19 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 164-09. Second resistance is last-August's high crossing at 165-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-22.
March T-notes were slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's losses. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 132.025 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.092 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 131.290. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.025. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.092. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.14 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 51.39. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.14. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 49.31. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76.
March heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 173.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 145.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 173.84. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 188.16. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 156.84. Second support is monthly support crossing at 145.80.
March unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If March extends the decline off January's high, August's low crossing at 142.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 154.61. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.95. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 143.45. Second support is August's low crossing at 142.08.
March Henry natural gas gapped down and was lower overnight as it renewed the decline off November's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.922 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.922. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.094. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.776. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the January 31st low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 98.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 98.61. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 98.74. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.22.
The March Euro was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.85. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.41. First support is the overnight low crossing at 109.66. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 109.21.
The March British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the January 31st high, the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3099 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the January 31st high crossing at 1.3225. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. First support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. Second support is the November 8th low crossing at 1.2830.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0207 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0344 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0319. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0344. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0252. Second is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0207.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, October's low crossing at 75.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.91 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.45. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.91. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 75.05. Second support is October's low crossing at 75.01.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, January's low crossing at 0.0909 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 0.0932 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0932. First support is January's low crossing at 0.0909. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.0906.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Monday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $1619.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80 are needed to renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1619.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1687.00. First support is the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1532.40.
March silver was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $18.375 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the December 18th low crossing at $16.935 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $18.375. Second resistance is January's highcrossing at $18.895. First support is January's low crossing at $17.280. Second support is the December 18th low crossing at $16.935.
March copper was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $267.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at $234.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $262.25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $267.03. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $248.75. Second support is monthly support crossing at $234.31.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight as it extends the December-February trading range. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off last-Thursday's low, January's high crossing at $3.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 5.46 1/2 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during February. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.65 3/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.65 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $5.92 1/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $5.46 1/2. Second support is the December 23rd low crossing at $5.40.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.04 3/4-cents at $4.72 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.82 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $4.58 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.82 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $4.58 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.23 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.45. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is the the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.29 1/2. Second support the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.01 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the May-2018-low crossing at $8.41 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.82. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.01 1/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is the May-2018 low crossing at $8.41 1/2.
March soybean meal was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $295.40 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends this winter's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 291.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $295.40. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $286.40. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
March soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.91. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.71. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 28.55.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $1.38 at $66.25.
April hogs gapped up and closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Today's close above last-Friday's gap crossing at $65.82 tempered the near-term bearish outlook. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's rally, last-Thursday's gap crossing at 68.67 is the next upside target. If April extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $52.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's gap crossing at $68.67. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.93. First support is Monday's low crossing at $61.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at $52.25.
April cattle closed up $0.05 at $119.80.
April cattle closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $123.46 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $123.46. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $128.30. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $118.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.70-cents at $135.20.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.01 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $138.08. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.01. First support is Monday's low crossing at $133.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 9.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.71 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 29.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.53 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
March cotton closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the December 18th low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target.
Thank you tallpine!
Widespread, very mild weather is crushing natural gas.
More dry weather for S. Brazil the next 10 days is a bit bullish beans but then rain chances after that. Tons of rain in Argentina.
Not much rain in Central Brazil but they may be harvesting now.