I've never been a betting man, my luck is very poor at casinos, however, I agree with your hypothesis for the most part. I think China's overall economy is going to get hurt big time over the coronavirus.

However, I see some possible good outcomes here that perhaps may stave off a terrible recession.

The world as a whole has become so dependant on cheap goods made in China, and now that China as a country is practically under quarantine and scrutiny for their public health and safety I think investors and manufacturing companies may start looking at spreading their manufacturing facilities out among multiple countries.

This lowers the risk that your overall supply of product is cutoff by a devastating event in a specific country. This also means other countries could see renewed interest in business investment.

That means economic growth which in turn could help to stave off the kind of full blown recession we saw around 2005 with the housing bubble crash in the united states.

Just my rambling thoughts and perhaps wishful thinking, but personally I like the idea of companies investing in infrastructure and manufacturing across several countries instead of all eggs in one (Chinese made) basket.

Hi Hayman

I like your thinking

We should do more manufacturing right here at home

But cheap labour sent the folks looking for profit

An example is our drug supply

The dang Chinese made cheap drugs subsidized by the state until we could not compete. Then when they had a near monopoly, up went the price

The FDA says that about 80-85 % clear FDA standards but when the only supply is china what can we do  about the other 15 %??. China has sent bad stuff our way but most of it is allowed, except the really bad stuff because we don't have any, otherwise

Heck China makes 1/2 the face masks in the world. How many do we make and I bet some will want a face mask with this virus. Think of our front line health workers safety.

Most of your off the shelf drugs come from china, but so does our heart medicine. What do you do. Tell people the heart medicine is not up to standard and tell folks that need it, there is none to be had because china product is crap [which it is]

And of coarse once they get a monopoly, they charge us an arm and a leg

India makes generic drugs but they still have to buy the ingredients from china

Drugs should be a national security thing. Like isn't our health sort of important enough to have our own industry

What happens if the china drug factories are shut down for another  3-4 weeks and we start to run low on supply. This a just in time world you know. Who gets 1st dibs on available supply???

the is a big divergence currently in the data...

rail traffic is down substantially the last few months,  but housing starts and permits are up nicely.  and housing is a large part of our economy.  

saw something similar to this on the interent somewhere and if that virus scares you that much this should scare the pants off you.

the powerful governments on earth cannot stop a virus but they want to convince you that if you all pay more taxes they can change the earth's tempersture

Quote by mcfarm:

"the powerful governments on earth cannot stop a virus but they want to convince you that if you all pay more taxes they can change the earth's temperature"

And yet, vaccines (while not perfect) have a proven track record of immunization results and are one thing that governments and private industry CAN influence. There are already biotech firms working on a vaccine for coronavirus.

Truly ironic.

Good point madmechanic!

Modern science and medicine has progressed in a massive way vs 100 years ago.

There WILL be a vaccine for the coronavirus that will likely prevent it from being like the flu pandemic over a century ago that infected something like 30% of the population. 

Also, back then we did not have antibiotics to treat complications(bacterial pneumonia for instance) that killed many people from that flu. 

Also, there are some anti viral drugs that apparently help patients to recover quicker from the coronavirus. 

On the climate, there is NOTHING we can do to change it significantly. CO2 is a beneficial gas and the beneficial warming has bumped us into a climate optimum so its dumb to even plan to change something that has featured the best weather for most life on this greening planet in over 1,000 years..................but its not about weather or climate.

No matter how many times that you've heard it and how many people are convinced and what the sources are THERE IS NO CLIMATE CRISIS............its a climate optimum and you are being fed fake news/propaganda on the most massive scale, using today's technology and groups of powerful people (The United Nations/world governments/progressive activist scientists) to perpetrate a scheme to sell global socialism via the hijacking of climate science.

This is what its all about:

1. A push for Global socialism.
2. Huge funding for scientists.
3.  Massive funding for green projects.
4. Massive revenue for governments via carbon tax schemes and
5. Via lobby money to politicians for green projects.
6.  Increased ratings by sensationalizing the weather for the media as well as imposing the progressive activists (dominating journalism) belief system on to millions that watch/read the stories.
7. Reigning in the over consumption of natural resources of developed countries with the “sustainable consumption” model for our future world based on the United Nations goals. 

Doing everything that they say we have to do to save the planet from the climate crisis will have a very small effect to curb future beneficial warming. What it would do is halt the greening of the planet and halt the increase in crop yields/world food production which is the only reason that this planet can sustain 8 billion people.

If fossil fuels did not exist, the worlds population would be less than half of what it is. 

If CO2 levels dropped back down to where they were 100 years ago, over 1 billion people would starve and food prices would triple. 

Population control is another reason that we could add to their list of objectives but that is part of #7 above. 

Having cheap, reliable abundant fossil fuels and abundant food help to sustain and improve the lives of humans.

While the UN does have many altruistic motives to improve the lives of humans and I commend them for all that, this one is a fraudulent scheme that has to be perpetrated in this manner because the truth would not generate enough support for their agenda.

So they had to invent the climate crisis/emergency to get people to do what they would not do if they knew the truth.

I am an environmentalist(that conserves natural resources) and somebody that works towards helping the less fortunate in our society and making the world a better place.

I agree with the UN's mission to help the poor countries.............but it's very wrong to intentionally hurt the rich countries thru a climate change chicanery.

The thing that would lift up the poorest people the quickest?

The same thing that made the rich countries rich........the life blood of every developed countries economy...........fossil fuels.