Thanks very much Larry!

I like it when you start the new natural gas threads. I was still commenting on the old thread all day today and will copy that below, as my initial contribution to your new thread:

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG week of 2/16/20            

                By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 1:29 p.m.            

Sunday weather:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47864/

Solutions are changing the amounts of cold at different times frames. The longer range still has a mild look.

         +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++            

                By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 3:44 p.m.            

To me, the over riding factor in the models is the dropping risk for substantive, sustained cold as we progress thru week 2. 

The EE was colder at 0z then gave most of that back at 12z.......which will count the most. HDD's are lower vs Friday. 

The GFS ensemble was looking pretty dang cold on Fri's 12z/18z runs........as we discussed above. It turned MUCH milder on Saturday, then a bit colder the last 3 runs but still milder than Friday.....HDD's are lower vs Friday.

So I will  guess a lower open tonight.   

I am very bullish ng based on factors mentioned early last week and other times, earlier this month, echoed closely by Larry on Friday.

Ideally, the thing that could re ignite the rally from our lows earlier this month, with high confidence is temps turning sharply colder in March.  

But they are turning milder..............so the March weather forecast is actually bearish and may try to fight everything else that is screaming for higher prices around the corner.  A mild March might just delay that.............for awhile. 

ps We do have a couple of stout (but brief) cold snaps in the next 12 days which is not exactly bearish but its not part of a continuing pattern(just temporary and short lived). 

            ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++                                                                        

                                By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 4:49 p.m.            

                Re: INO Evening Market Comments            

                By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 4 p.m.            

Thanks tallpine!

In ng, the fundamentals have turned very bullish longer term but the weather Sunday is more bearish.

We still have part of the bullish gap higher from last Sunday Night that did not get filled........as we had great buying down there supporting prices.

Then we had the impressive bearish downward reversal on Thursday...........new highs for the move and a sharply lower close.  This was from the market seeing milder temps late last week.

As we open the new trading week, the formation above that looks like it will be signaling early trade is the bearish downward reversal on Thursday. 

Had maps turned  much colder over the weekend, we could have opened sharply higher, even a gap higher and negated that but they didn't.

How mild does it need to be to fill last Sunday's gap higher completely?

And its not as if there aren't a couple of brief cold shots the next 12 days that will increase demand and HDD's vs the forecast just being pure mild all the way out and it being construed as mega bearish/one sided. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++                                          

                Re: Re: Re: Re: NG week of 2/16/20            

                By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 5:25 p.m.            

What do you think Larry?

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG week of 2/16/20            

                By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 5:51 p.m.            

March ng expires on Wed. 2-26.

Often some fireworks ahead of that.

         +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++                           

                Re: Re: NG week of 2/16/20            

                            By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 7:06 p.m.            

A colder solution on the 18z GFS ens for the 11-14 day time frame has given ng a little pop off the lows.

Since it is not shown as continuing beyond those several days, we (will)  need more than that to get ng prices overnight above the close Friday. 

Thanks very much Larry!

I like it when you start the new natural gas threads. I was still commenting on the old thread all day today.........hoping you would pop in....... and will copy that below, as my initial contribution to your new thread:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47518/

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG week of 2/16/20            

                By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 1:29 p.m.            

Sunday weather:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47864/

Solutions are changing the amounts of cold at different times frames. The longer range still has a mild look.

         +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++            

                By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 3:44 p.m.            

To me, the over riding factor in the models is the dropping risk for substantive, sustained cold as we progress thru week 2. 

The EE was colder at 0z then gave most of that back at 12z.......which will count the most. HDD's are lower vs Friday. 

The GFS ensemble was looking pretty dang cold on Fri's 12z/18z runs........as we discussed above. It turned MUCH milder on Saturday, then a bit colder the last 3 runs but still milder than Friday.....HDD's are lower vs Friday.

So I will  guess a lower open tonight.   

I am very bullish ng based on factors mentioned early last week and other times, earlier this month, echoed closely by Larry on Friday.

Ideally, the thing that could re ignite the rally from our lows earlier this month, with high confidence is temps turning sharply colder in March.  

But they are turning milder..............so the March weather forecast is actually bearish and may try to fight everything else that is screaming for higher prices around the corner.  A mild March might just delay that.............for awhile. 

ps We do have a couple of stout (but brief) cold snaps in the next 12 days which is not exactly bearish but its not part of a continuing pattern(just temporary and short lived). 

            ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++                                                                        

                                By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 4:49 p.m.            

                Re: INO Evening Market Comments            

                By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 4 p.m.            

Thanks tallpine!

In ng, the fundamentals have turned very bullish longer term but the weather Sunday is more bearish.

We still have part of the bullish gap higher from last Sunday Night that did not get filled........as we had great buying down there supporting prices.

Then we had the impressive bearish downward reversal on Thursday...........new highs for the move and a sharply lower close.  This was from the market seeing milder temps late last week.

As we open the new trading week, the formation above that looks like it will be signaling early trade is the bearish downward reversal on Thursday. 

Had maps turned  much colder over the weekend, we could have opened sharply higher, even a gap higher and negated that but they didn't.

How mild does it need to be to fill last Sunday's gap higher completely?

And its not as if there aren't a couple of brief cold shots the next 12 days that will increase demand and HDD's vs the forecast just being pure mild all the way out and it being construed as mega bearish/one sided. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++                                          

                Re: Re: Re: Re: NG week of 2/16/20            

                By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 5:25 p.m.            

What do you think Larry?

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG week of 2/16/20            

                By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 5:51 p.m.            

March ng expires on Wed. 2-26.

Often some fireworks ahead of that.

         +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++                           

                Re: Re: NG week of 2/16/20            

                            By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 7:06 p.m.            

A colder solution on the 18z GFS ens for the 11-14 day time frame has given ng a little pop off the lows.

Since it is not shown as continuing beyond those several days, we (will)  need more than that to get ng prices overnight above the close Friday. 

March has come within 1 tick of completely filling the gap higher from 1 week ago. The low has been 1.855.

April has a bit more to go.........down to 1.851 in order to completely fill the gap higher. The low so far has been 1.863 and we have eroded the top part of the gap, which started at 1.885.

The previous statement was a mistake. The April gap was completely filled tonight when we hit 1.872.

We are at 1.868 right now with a low of 1.861.

Unless models turn sharply colder with this next run, those gaps will likely get filled.

That statement above was made earlier in the evening and now the gap(s) have been filled, along with the 0z GFS/ensembles coming out warmer.

Monday's weather from earlier(very mild):  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47956/

Natural Gas Futures Fall as Weather Patterns May Stay ‘Quite Warm’; Cash Mostly Lower, But AECO Up

     5:44 PM    

After taking a few steps back last week, natural gas futures moved more convincingly lower on Monday following further warming in the latest weather models. The March Nymex gas futures contract settled at $1.827/MMBtu, down 7.8 cents from Friday’s close. April dropped 7.4 cents to $1.843.

Natural Gas Intelligence Tuesday Early:

Natural Gas Futures Called Slightly Higher; Forecasts Continue Showing Mild March Pattern

Weather Tuesday........still mild:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48007/

                  NGI after the close on Tuesday:

Natural Gas Futures Steady as Market Awaits Next Cold Blast; Cash Bounces

As oil prices sunk below $50/bbl and stock markets took another nosedive, natural gas futures traders took a breather on Tuesday. With little change to the overall weather picture, the March Nymex gas futures contract closed a rather quiet session at $1.847/MMBtu, up 2.0 cents day/day. April climbed eight-tenths of a cent to $1.851.

Forecasts Shift Cooler as Natural Gas Futures See Small Gains Early

metmike: The EE's came out MUCH colder and we went from the lows to the highs after that. +9 HDD's

The much colder part is pretty bullish and  lasts for several days but then reverts back to mild at the end of 2 weeks.

March ng, the front month expires today.

A spike up or down would not be a surprise, even though the affects on the back months would be a bit more muted.

12z GFSENS was milder.

Natural gas is getting hammered! Warm weather outlooks. 

Life of contract lows are 1.788 and we've been down to 1.791 so far.

Seems likely we will drop lower than that.  Could hit a ton of sell stops and see it spike MUCH lower for a brief period.

Closing comments from NGI:

Late Selling Pressure Drives March NatGas Lower at Expiration; Cash Climbs as Cold Arrives

     5:24 PM    

With brief snaps of cold air expected to continue popping up across the United States into the early part of next month, natural gas bulls took the cue to lift the expiring March Nymex gas futures contract to a $1.880/MMBtu intraday high before aggressive selling into the close pushed the contract down to $1.821, off 2.6 cents day/day. April, which takes over the prompt-month position on Thursday, fell 1.4 cents to $1.837.

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report-last week

 for week ending February 14, 2020   |  Released: February 20, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: February 27, 2020 

                                                                                                                                                                                -151 BCF

Bullish for the 6th week in a row!                                                                                                                                                                          

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,343 Bcf as of Friday, February 14, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 151 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 613 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 200 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,143 Bcf. At 2,343 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

                                                                                                                                                                               https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386                                                                                                                                                                                                            

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

7 day temperatures for last weeks report:

7 day temperatures ending last Friday for tomorrows EIA report:

This seasonal price chart below is for 2 decades, ending back in 2009.

Note the very strong tendency for ng to put in a bottom right around this time frame. In something like 95% of the time, ng prices go up in Mar-May.

Warm weather outlooks for March have us going back to the bottom from earlier this year......Feb. 11 at 1.788 for the April contract.

US Natural Gas Rig Count:        

110.00  for Wk of Feb 14 2020.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_rotary_rigs

Lowest since October 2016. Only a bit over half of what it was just a year ago! Low prices are taking a toll and cutting supplies, creating a tighter market.....which should continue thru Spring. 

US Natural Gas Rig Count is at a current level of 110.00, same as last week and down from 194.00 one year ago.  This is a change of  -43.59% from one year ago.

NG is trading more than wx right now. It is also trading the stock market/Coronavirus.

At least in energies, it seems like the market is trading like it thinks the US will shut down like China did, which I give a 1% chance of happening.

The Saudis have to be watching what is going on with prices and feel like they are on the verge of throwing up.

I agree that ng is trading more than weather...........which has turned extraordinarily bearish along with the coronavirus. 

Exports of ng might drop?

The ng export market has been a huge demand plus recently. Earlier this month, I thought the lows were in for ng with high confidence. 

Surprise, surprise, surprise as Gomer Pyle used to say.

NGI Thur AM:

Euro Model Much Warmer for Early March; Natural Gas Futures Drop Below $1.80

                Re: Re: Re: NG week of 2/16/20            

                By metmike - Feb. 17, 2020, 1:08 a.m.            

Besides warm temps in March, what other bearish factors could present themselves?

A big economic slow down. In late 2008/2009, the recession caused industrial demand for ng to plunge. I think it was January 2009, when we had one of the coldest air masses in years barrelling into much of the US and it hardly caused ng to pause on its plunge lower.

Of course that was also when natural gas from horizontal fracking was suddenly gushing in and prices the previous 5 years were historically, very, very high(2.5 to 5 times as high as they are now) and had a long way down to go.

Also, the Coronavirus is apparently affecting the global natural gas market (from a decrease in Chinese demand) that is major OVER supplied already. 

More on the next page.

Would less ng exports to China from the US have the ability to pressure prices?  Probably not and the Coronvirus will runs its course in a few months, with everything reverting back to the way it was before. 

Report: The United States Will Be the World’s Top LNG Exporter in the Next Five Years

https://www.energyindepth.org/report-the-united-states-will-be-the-worlds-top-lng-exporter-in-the-next-five-years/

This trend is expected to continue with IEA predicting that by 2024 the United States will represent more than one-third (35 percent) of global natural gas production growth.

The Incredible Growth of U.S. LNG

The first shipment of U.S. LNG from the lower 48 states was exported in February 2016, and it has been full-speed ahead ever since. As Reutersreported shortly before the shipment left Louisiana:

“Expected to become an importer of LNG just a decade ago, the shale gas revolution in the United States that unlocked cheap, abundant supplies has wreaked havoc on global gas markets as LNG meant for the country was redirected around the world.”

U.S. LNG exports more than quintupled from 2016 to 2018, with the United States exporting a record nearly 1.1 tcf of LNG in 2018. That’s about 189 billion cubic feet (bcf) more than 2016 and 2017 combined.

And as the IEA report explains, there are no signs of this growth slowing down. At the end of May, the Department of Energy announced the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas was approved to export additional domestically produced natural gas. 

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending February 21, 2020   |  Released: February 27, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: March 5, 2020 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          -143 BCF first bearish number in a long time!                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,200 Bcf as of Friday, February 21, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 143 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 637 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 179 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,021 Bcf. At 2,200 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Thanks for another Thursday! Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48121/

EIA Reports Low-Ball Storage Draw; Reaction Muted as NatGas Futures Already Much Lower

      11:19 AM

Market closed almost at where it was before the bearish EIA report but the weather is bearish and the Coronavirus scare is more powerful than other bullish supply fundamentals. 

Thurs close:

April Natural Gas Nosedives on Further Warmer Trends in Weather Outlooks, Bearish Storage Data

Friday AM:

Natural Gas Tumbles; Demand ‘Falling Off a Cliff’ as Coronavirus Spreads Fear of Slowdown

       8:54 AM

Friday weather..........still mild:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48202/

Leap Day Saturday Weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48251/

Natural gas was hit with a triple whammy last week!

1. Incredibly mild/bearish weather forecasts.

2. First bearish EIA report in the last 6 weeks.

3. Coronavirus scare

 I have no idea where we might open.

Probably not a big change from the close

I know we have talked about this before, but at some point, going any lower is absurd.  There becomes a point where you just can't ignore how cheap it is and people start buying.  

We are at that point now Jim.

A month ago, I would have put the chances of us trading down to this price at much less than 10%.

Small Recovery for Natural Gas Futures Early as Balances Remain Tight

     8:41 AM    

After heavy selling last week, natural gas futures climbed back above the $1.700/MMBtu mark early Monday, helped by continued tightening in the underlying supply/demand balance. The April Nymex futures contract was up 2.5 cents to $1.709 at around 8:30 a.m. ET

Weather Monday(it will take more than warm weather for us to make new lows)..the forecast is warm but we are modestly higher today:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48362/