LA/Long Beach cargo dropping by 25% is pretty real
Mebbe I should go to Target & stock up?
Perspective is such a funny thing. More people will die in car accidents tomorrow, in the US, that will die for the rest of the year of the coronavirus.
In fact, I'll bet more people get killed by cows this year, than by the coronavirus.
Cows are tricky
But much the same, year to year
In the end, we win
"In fact, I'll bet more people get killed by cows this year, than by the coronavirus. "
You just enlightened me to something new!
Thank for that!
https://curiosity.com/topics/cows-kill-more-people-than-sharks/
There are approximately five deaths caused by sharks annually, while horses kill about 20 people a year and cows kill about 22. Crocodiles gobble up 1,000 people a year. By spreading malaria, mosquitos kill hundreds of thousands more people than sharks do every year. Deer also cause hundreds of deaths, mostly by running out in front of cars.
I'm pretty sure that the Coronavirus will kill many more people than cows but would bet my house that the flu kills 10 times more people than the Coronavirus in 2020....possibly 100 times times more(best case scenario).
But we are 100 times more afraid of something that is 100 times less of a threat.
That means that we are 10,000 times more afraid than we should be (100 X 100) over the risk of death from Coronavirus (those numbers are not accurate because we can't measure the fear and don't know the real threat but you get the idea)...which agrees with you completely.
The coronavirus has about 3000 confirmed kills so far. It's blown up fast in China, South Korea, italy & Iran. The US screwed up testing for 6 weeks so the 62 cases so far are likely to turn into 1000 really fast.
It's tricky. Countries like Japan & Singapore may be overreacting, Others are still pretending that nothing's happening.
Either way, the economic effects in the next couple months are going to be huge.
Daily updates:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
Thanks Patrick,
My wild guess/hypothetical numbers are just for the US.
Interesting that Coronavirus is going to do this(and I believe you) in spite of it likely being much less deadly than the weakest flu season.
I've never witnessed this much irrational fear before. Granted, it's a major virus that is going to kill alot of people and extreme precautions should be taken but this is nuts.
Funny thing is that this over reaction, will help to keep it from spreading as bad as not acting this way.
People are being extra diligent about doing things that lessen their risks(washing hands for instance) which they never thought about with the flu that's all around them.
We have huge outbreaks of the flu in our schools. It starts with a few students and grows, sometimes into the hundreds(at big schools) but the schools don't shut down...........which is why it spreads like that.
1 case of Coronavirus confirmed at a school and that school might shut down for a week or more.
Every time a new case is reported anywhere, everybody will know about it every where. Many to most people in those communities will act in a way that makes it harder for the virus to get them/spread.
So being paranoid and over reacting is going to have its benefits.
So the virus is more contagious than the flu and probably, at least several times more deadly but we will be giving it less opportunity to spread because we are petrified of it.
If this isn't enough Coronavirus stuff for you here, try these links for much more( I made almost as many Coronavirus posts as trading posts the past month):
Coronavirus loony panic
13 responses |
Started by metmike - Feb. 29, 2020, 11:55 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48235/
Trump virus press release
20 responses |
Started by wglassfo - Feb. 26, 2020, 7:35 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48045/
Corona Virus
68 responses |
Started by kermit - Feb. 8, 2020, 11:30 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47120/
Where does my info come from
6 responses |
Started by wglassfo - Feb. 10, 2020, 2:42 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47204/
Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak Across the World
8 responses |
Started by metmike - Feb. 4, 2020, 7:25 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46972/
China finds virus code
11 responses |
Started by wglassfo - Feb. 1, 2020, 4:01 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46800/
Coronavirus
28 responses |
Started by metmike - Jan. 25, 2020, 11:38 a.m.
Will a shortage of life sustaining drugs be chalked up to the virus??
How many people do you suppose will die because medical supplies are not available
I take 20 plus prescription pills/day
What are the chances some may not be available
I plan to have a heart to heart talk with my doctor
I am also in the highest risk category to die
Wayne,
Your risk of dying from the flu vs the Coronavirus is at least 10 times higher, maybe 100 times higher.
Ready for another bet?
I bet you don't die from the Coronavirus.
I'll bet my house and 2 cars that you won't die from the Coronavirus............and will not have to pay out with 100% certainty.
If I win the bet..............no pay out.
If you do die from the Coronavirus...............you won't be there to collect...no pay out (-:
The FDA has received notice of drug supply chain disruptions, but won't say who from.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/02/28/coronavirus-disruptions-in-china-beginning-to-affe.aspx
Also the mortality rate to the flu in the US is about 0.1% - 30,000 deaths, 30 million cases
COVID-19 so far is over 2% mortality worldwide, but nobody has good numbers yet. I haven't seen anyone crazy enough to guess what the total cases of COVID-19 in the US will be, other than the guy who said 7.
https://khn.org/news/fact-check-coronavirus-homeland-security-chief-flu-mortality-rate/
Which are connected because China has basically shut down to put a lid on transmission, and has kept it to 80,000 cases with 400-500 new ones per day.
US stock futures have had a 1,000 point spread overnight but are looking pretty strong again as London has gone pretty strongly positive. I now think they will have a strong up day. Sure, things got worse in the US this weekend, which is sad and somewhat scared. But was any of this unexpected? I don’t think so as I think this was dialed in at the Fri close. As Mike has said, things have to get worse for quite awhile (1-2 months?) before they finally start to improve in the US. An ace in the hole MAY be that this virus may never get too widespread in the US due to spring (warmer and increased humidity) oncoming but that remains to be seen for this particular virus.
Also, note that China is now starting to recover and even open some things back up. Perhaps this is the bigger factor.
I listened to the press conference, broadcast at the link above and was very impressed with what the state of Florida is doing.
They clearly are on top of it.
Doesn't mean that it won't spread but they will be on top of it.
Can't discount news fatigue either. At some point people are going to hear of another death and go....yawn....
The Dow has quickly come back 30% (1.5K) of the 5K drop that ended intraday Friday! That's pretty impressive!
Virtually everything is strong today including crude being up $2.33.
Wuhan, China:
the news this morning was....
98-year old Corona victim recovers, after severe lung-infection and heart failure
maybe, this little bit of positive news was the thing that gave traders some hope and pushed everything back up, in addition to an "oversold" technical environment
Great thoughts you guys.
Since its for sure going to get worse here for quite awhile, the question is: When will the panic in people peak?
We have a great panicking head start as evidenced by the link below and probably this initial surge in scare is MUCH greater than the new scare surges from news of more cases, that just add a bit to the already well entrenched scare.
The markets today act as if the scare has peaked.
They have all had a huge recovery............but that could just be a pause/bounce and it will take a massive recovery to get back to where we were before the news got scary. That won't happen for a long time with reports of more and more infected and dying going up FOR SURE and probably for over a month.
What might happen, is that after a month of this, people will get used to it and start accepting it for what it is(like they do the flu).
When we hit May for instance, if there are something like 500 fatalities(wild speculative/hypothetical) but the fatalities stop getting higher and numbers start going down, then people will see the Coronavirus as something different.
Instead of the deadly virus from the land of the unknown that is spreading uncontrollably, it will be.............the now KNOWN and UNDERSTOOD virus because we lived thru the worst that it could hit us with and only 500 people died..........while 40,000 died from the flu. Dang, it's not so bad after all!
Maybe more than 500 will die? Maybe 4,000 will die?(probably not) . If 4,000 die, its still 10% as many as the flu but things will get really bad in the US as numbers ramp up.
No doubt all air travelers are thinking about this. I'll bet land transportation increases vs plane travel the next several months.
Land travel means restaurants, motels, & similar chances to catch something
Air travel in a time where planes aren't 100% loaded could be kind of nice, except when they cancel your flight
In sum, travel is torment. Stay at home & take long naps.
Good points patrick!
All travel will drop.
Actually, really good points. People going from point A to point E for instance, driving the trip and needing to stop at points B, C and D will have more to worry about than a person in a plane without all those stops in locations where other unscreened travelers.......from far away places could have left behind some coronavirus.
Transmission risk via this path seems very low but this will be a huge concern.........depending on how bad it gets this month.
