KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, March 4, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 655.0)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 267.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%
Refinance Idx
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +5.0%)
8:15 AM ET. February ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +150000; previous +291000)
9:45 AM ET. February US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.4)
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:00 AM ET. February ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 55.3; previous 55.5)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 60.9)
Prices Idx (previous 55.5)
Employment Idx (previous 53.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 56.2)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 443.335M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.452M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 256.387M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.691M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 138.472M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.115M)
Refinery Usage (previous 87.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.884M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.294M)
11:00 AM ET. February Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 52.7)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Tuesday as the roller-coaster ride continues.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9272.34 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at 7759.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9101.72. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9271.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at 8116.24. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at 7759.93.
The March S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Tuesday ending a two-day rebound off last-Friday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3254.29 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2751.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3156.07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3254.29. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2856.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2751.74.
The Dow closed sharply lower on Tuesday after filling last-Thursday's gap crossing at 26,890.97. The low-range close that sets the stage for a steady to lower opening is possible when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,313.09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow resumes the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 23,674.73. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 27,349.96. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,311.33. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 24,713.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 23,674.73.
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June T-bonds closed up 1-05/32's at 172-08.
June T-bonds posted a key reversal up on Tuesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 177-11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-31 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 174-16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 177-11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 166-25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-31.
June T-notes closed up 250-pts. at 135.290.
June T-notes closed sharply higher on Tuesday and posted a key reversal up as it extended the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.290 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 136.230. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133.028. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.290.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed lower on Tuesday leaving yesterday's key reversal upunconfirmed.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $50.45 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If April resumes this year's decline, long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $42.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $50.45. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $54.66. First support is Monday's low crossing at $43.32. Second support is long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $42.05.
April heating oil closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $161.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $135.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $161.55. Second resistance is the February 20th high crossing at $171.40. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $143.83. Second support is weekly support crossing at $135.40.
April unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday leaving yesterday's key reversal up unconfirmed. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 165.88 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 124.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 165.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 176.01. First support is Monday's low crossing at 144.11. Second support is weekly support crossing at 124.50.
April Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.854 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If April extends the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.854. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 2.024. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.642. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The June Dollar closed sharply lower for the fourth day in a row on Tuesday as it extended decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 96.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.38 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.38. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 99.82. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 96.95. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 96.19.
The June Euro closed higher for the fourth day in a row on Tuesday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the January 16th high crossing at 112.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.01 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the January 16th high crossing at 112.75. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 113.56. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.01. Second support is February's low crossing at 108.53.
The June British Pound closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2677 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3063 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 13th high crossing at 1.3110. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3253. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.2760. Second support isthe 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2677.
The June Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off February's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, last-August's high crossing at 1.0600 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0339 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0569. Second resistance is last-August's high crossing at 1.0600. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0380. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0339.
The June Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's rally.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.22 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off December's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 73.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.22. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 75.74. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 74.28. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 73.97.
The June Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-February-decline crossing at 0.0942 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0915 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0939. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-February-decline crossing at 0.0942. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0920. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing 0.0915.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last-Friday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1572.40 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If April resumes the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1704.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1691.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $1704.10. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1572.40. Second support is February's low at $1551.10.
May silver closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last-week's decline. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2019 rally crossing at 15.981 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.847 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.847. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 18.920. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 16.400. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2019 rally crossing at 15.981.
May copper closed lower on Tuesday as it extends February's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at 263.95 would confirming an upside breakout of February's trading range. If May extends last-week's decline, February's low crossing at 248.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 263.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 269.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at 250.10. Second support is February's low crossing at 248.75.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed up a $0.05-cents at 3.80 1/2.
May corn closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.81 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.81 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.88. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $3.65 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4.
May wheat closed up $0.04 1/4-cents at $5.27 1/2.
May wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.45 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.38 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.45 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.12. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.95.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up a $0.00 1/2-cent at $4.58 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.34 1/2. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.64 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.71. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.39. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.34 1/2.
May Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.05 3/4-cents at $5.34.
May Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.37 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, last-September's low crossing at 5.11 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.37 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.49 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $5.15 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.11 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed up $0.03 1/2-cents at $9.04 1/2.
May soybeans closed higher on Tuesday as it extends February's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at $9.10 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, last-May's low crossing at $8.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $9.10 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.22 3/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $8.78 1/4. Second support is last-May's low crossing at $8.54.
May soybean meal closed up $1.40 at $310.30.
May soybean meal closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, January's high crossing at $311.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $298.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $310.60. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $311.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 298.10. Second support is February's low crossing at $290.70.
May soybean oil closed up 28-pts. at 29.19.
May soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the May 2019 low crossing at 27.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.72. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.46. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 28.35. Second support is the May 2019 low crossing at 27.85.
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April hogs closed up $0.75 at $63.55.
April hogs closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends last-week's decline, February's low crossing at $61.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $64.71 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.20. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $61.52. Second support is February's low crossing at $61.00.
April cattle closed down $0.05 at $110.10.
April cattle closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at $103.75 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at $116.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.48. Second resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at $116.95. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $107.47. Second support is weekly support crossing at $103.75.
May Feeder cattle closed down $1.93-cents at $134.05.
May Feeder cattle posted a key reversal down on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.31. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $143.81. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $131.55. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.31.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 12.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May cocoa closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the January 14th gap crossing at 26.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.12 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
May sugar closed lower on Tuesday following yesterday's key reversal down as it extended the decline off February's high. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 13.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.62 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
May cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.14 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, last-August's low crossing at 58.84 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!
NG weather continues very mild/bearish but doesn't matter.
Hot/dry for a week in Argentina will hurt the late filling beans a bit but big rains come back, starting day 8,. which will limit the damage.
Coronavirus news and stock market are more important than weather by a wide margin.