gold-oil ratio
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Started by bear - March 5, 2020, 4:15 p.m.

the last couple years, this ratio got up well above 30,  then down below 20.

the long term average is close to 15.  we got close to that,  but now we are back up to 36.  

this is very stretched.  I would NOT expect gold to keep surging, while oil keeps going down.  

silver is cheap compared to gold.

oil is cheap compared to gold.

platinum is cheap compared to gold.

yes the market is very irrational at current levels.  

but... remember, markets can stay irrantional longer than I can stay solvent. 

Comments
By wglassfo - March 5, 2020, 10:42 p.m.
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1st: I would not own paper gold. Physical only as you could ask for physical for paper you hold, or probably the money and be denied for some time, if gold goes up a lot

Gold can be manipulated and paper is not good security, if the brown stuff hits the fan, and a rush to safe haven gold happens. The recent sale of 3 billion took the wind out of gold price. I expect gold to recover, but paper is easy to sell and manipulate given todays low int rate for margin, so it may take some time for gold to really get going upward. I expect you know banks hate gold and if we have another rate cut, margin is very cheap

2nd:  If silver goes down, I will be a buyer of 1 oz silver coins

Oil should go down as Russia continues to not be a good player for OPEC, but that market is very fluid

I think Russia needs the money, more than they need oil. China will use as much coal as possible. At least one small oil refinery in china has gone BK and were not bailed out. Electric useage in china is a hoax as co's are told to use X amount of electricity to try and convince the world china is back to producing stuff in factories. What they have is mostly ghost factories, but they are using some oil, for electricity, even though nobody is working. At least most are not working

Anyway be careful if anybody owns paper gold. Very poor security in a fluid market. That includes ETF's also

Today nobody believes what comes out of china as info. Not even the Chinese population, believe the politburo. 


By patrick - March 6, 2020, 8:23 a.m.
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Whether China will use as much coal as possible is pretty interesting. They've pledged to cut use - eventually - and have reduced the portion of their energy to "only" 59% from coal, but at least through 2019 the total burned has been growing. They're choking on the smoke, and have good reason to move away, but it hasn't been happening.

Although this year, thanks to Covid-19, their air is a lot clearer.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-energy-coal/china-expects-to-hit-2020-coal-cap-targets-demand-overshadows-study-idUSKCN1SZ17M