grains open
4 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - June 10, 2018, 7:59 p.m.

I'll guess close to unchanged

Re: grains open
By metmike - June 10, 2018, 8:08 p.m.
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Slightly lower open, then a bit of a bounce, to a bit above unch.

The weather was as bearish as it could get at the end of last week and we took 70c out of the SX already since the highs and 30c from the CZ but on the other hand, we don't have a dome, though we do have a shot of strong heat late this week.

Still plenty of rain for plenty of places by June standards.

Now we're back down just under unch. I have no clue where we will go early this evening. 

Any other thoughts please?

By pll - June 10, 2018, 8:17 p.m.
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Doesn't act like it is wanting to go down tonight

By cutworm - June 10, 2018, 8:32 p.m.
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If I was to give you a prognostication you would do well to fade me! 

By metmike - June 10, 2018, 9:02 p.m.
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Thanks for the responses. Mine will not say much more but uses alot of words.

Nothing compelling with the weather thats alot different than last week, which was pretty bearish already.

Crop ratings were already near the highest ever. I will guess they drop 1-2% tomorrow.

The states that are most likely to have some slippage are MO for sure, then AR/LA which might would effect beans more.

Parts of IN/IL/IA maybe too, especially since rains may not have got there in time to help for the rating.

If we had a dome on Friday, then this weather forecast would be causing us to drop hard.

If the weather doesn't change much overnight, then we might just have to wait for 8:30 am to see what the funds decide to do. It's crazy how the overnight trade often doesn't matter anymore after 8:30am.

Mostly quiet, sometimes trending, controlled type movements overnight, that often don't violate boundaries by much...... then at 8:30 am, it's like somebody flipped a switch and its an entirely different market.

Fairly mild mannered overnight soybeans turn into mega gyrating, spiking and boundary(support/resistance) violating soybeans.

Sometimes they will take out resistance then come back and take out support.........or like early last week, when t the funds are all on the same page, we have massive waves of aggressive selling, with periods for a pause or bounce before the next wave of selling.

20 years ago, we would usually have a slow and steady decline, with bounces of just a couple of cents.

Now the bounces can be 10c or like the week before 15c in the beans..........even though the beans still end up making new lows within the next couple of days.