Welcome March 14th!
Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history................this Coronavirus panic will be peaking............maybe sooner than you think. We'll use calculus/math and science to predict signs of that:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48892/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Never too old: Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Warm south, cold N.Rockies/Plains.
Highs for days 3-7:
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Very active southern stream. Cold Northcentral to N.Rockies.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Heavy rains up to the S.Midwest and Ohio River valley (some flooding) with a couple of events.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:
Current Day 1 Outlook | Forecaster: Grams/Leitman Issued: 30/1238Z Valid: 30/1300Z - 31/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 2 Outlook | Forecaster: Mosier Issued: 30/0537Z Valid: 31/1200Z - 01/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms |
Current Day 3 Outlook | Forecaster: Mosier Issued: 30/0725Z Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Wet soils in the Midwest with planting starting in 2 months. Plenty of time to dry out but Spring Storms with heavy precip will be bullish for corn.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
February March 5: No drought anywhere in the Midwest.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Mar 29, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Previous posts:
Long-term median number of days per year with snow depth of 1"+ on the ground.
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By metmike - Feb. 11, 2020, 3:33 p.m.
NEW: The long lived upper level ridge in the Southeast US will be breaking down during week 2! This will allow cooler air to affect the East/Southeast. However, air masses will not be very cold coming from the Pacific or from Canada in week 2.
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By WxFollower - Feb. 12, 2020, 3:33 p.m.
The Arctic (80N to 90N) is cooling down again (see image below). Will it finally get to below normal/colder than 245 K (-28 C) with the extreme and long-lasting +AO?? I'm still hoping.
Note on the image that the coldest day's normal there (per green line) still isn't til ~2/26, when it drops briefly to 242 K (-31 C or -24 F). Also, note that the normal for exactly one month from today (3/12) is still about the same as today's 244 K. So, the point is that the Arctic can still churn out very cold air through about a month from now. That's why if the delivery/upper winds are just right and it is fast enough, it can still get mighty cold even down into the southern US into mid March despite a good bit higher sun by then. March is rarely dull from many perspectives and this is one of the reasons, the battle of the lingering very cold Arctic and the warming in the temperate regions from a higher sun. March, the weather enthusiast's dream month!
Arctic daily mean temps through today, 2/12/2020:
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By metmike - Feb. 12, 2020, 7:43 p.m.
Great points and graph Larry!
This also illustrates the fact that global warming/climate change is warming the coldest places, during the coldest times of year the most.
Since your graph shows this year, Winter only , I provided a year round temp profile for 2016-2018 below as an example of temperatures in the Arctic for the entire year.................staying milder/less harsh in the normally frigid environment of Winter but then every Summer, temperatures are very close to and sometimes BELOW average.
The graph below this one shows each year going back over 45 years. You may need to wait a couple of seconds for it to load. What is amazing is that during the "cold" season, temperatures are consistently above to much above average(less harsh) but every Summer they get back to average(and much of the time, even a bit below average.
So most people may think that its warmer temperatures during the melt season that is melting all the ice but temperatures have frequently been a bit BELOW average during the melt season, which melts less ice.
What is actually happening is that during the rest of the year, during the freeze season temperatures are well above average so not as much of the ice that melted the prior Summer freezes as deeply. This thinner ice, is then easier to melt the next Summer, even with temperatures that are average or even a tad below average(but above freezing and with the sun shining 24 hours a day.
The ice loss was pretty great up until 2012. Since then it has (temporarily) stabilized.
We should note too, that SEA ice is already floating in the sea. Melting it does not add much to sea levels(like an ice cube melting in your drink). This is a big reason for why all that melting Arctic sea ice prior to 2012 did NOT cause an acceleration of the rate of sea level increase.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/10/uah-arctic-temperature-profile/
This (painstakingly created) animation shows the DMI above 80N from 1970 thru Oct 2018. Images sourced from DMI’s Arctic Temperatures page.
Brian Brettschneider@Climatologist49
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Which month of the year has the Best Weather™?
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If you are wondering why it’s been such a mild winter in the US and many other areas in the mid latitudes look no further. The vigorous polar vortex has all the cold air corraled!
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Near perfect circular symmetry in the strong #PolarVortex right now and very close to being centered right over the North Pole. About as far as you can get from any sort of disruption or split.
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https://twitter.com/i/status/1229431021457702912
By metmike - Feb. 27, 2020, 11:59 a.m.
Can you say #fetch? Amazing "fetch" from Lake Huron across Ontario. Note sure I've ever seen a Lake Effect fetch that focused and defined over such a long distance on the models before. NAM snowfall.
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By WxFollower - Feb. 29, 2020, 10:41 p.m.
The Arctic’s coldest so far this winter was today at 243K. Models suggest further drops to possibly as low as 240K over the next 3-5 days.
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By WxFollower - March 4, 2020, 2:18 a.m.
The Arctic says "what spring?"
Re: Re: Re: Weather Thursday March 5, 2020
By metmike - March 5, 2020, 1:34 p.m.
Thanks Larry, the longer the cold stays bottled up in the high latitudes, the longer we stay mild here in the middle latitudes.
By metmike - March 8, 2020, 1:49 p.m.
https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1236349149374599168/photo/1
By metmike - March 9, 2020, 10:44 p.m.
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By metmike - March 9, 2020, 10:44 p.m.
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By bowyer - March 9, 2020, 3:48 p.m.
We were able to put on anhydrous ammonia and chisel plow the last 2 days in west central Illinois. Rain all day today put an end to fieldwork !