Economy 2020
7 responses | 0 likes
Started by wglassfo - March 18, 2020, 7:45 p.m.

Most people seem to think we will see a "V" shaped economic re-action to the carnage we see in the markets and soon coming to you on main st.

I think we will see a worse economy than imagined by most analysts of today and the effect will be an "L" shaped recovery over at least two yrs

I posted a two yr recession some time ago and see no reason to change my mind

What will the deficit look like in two yrs???

How many people have just seen their retirement portfolio blown out

Will it recover soon

What  options does the gov't have to take care of you

We live in a world where we look to the gov't for anything that doesn't go exactly right in our family

Is more gov't debt the answer the countries problems

When this all simmers down, the deficit is going to be a huge problem

I wish I understood the liquidity problem better as the major world banks seem to have a problem

By metmike - March 18, 2020, 8:29 p.m.
Like Reply

You were right about how bad this would get Wayne(at least the markets panic/extreme reaction).

Actually, it over shot even your most extreme prediction(remember when you bet that crude would drop below $45, then double or nothing at it dropping below $40?..we hit $20 earlier today.

Once the Coronavirus vaccine is in wide distribution, we can go back to something closer to 2021.

Until then, changes in the way we operate will remain as a black cloud over the economy to some degree, depending on unknowns about things like seasonality of the virus and whether anti virals work to treat it.; 

By Richard - March 19, 2020, 12:21 p.m.
Like Reply

I agree with you on no V shape. I am still see $100 oil this year. This move to $20 does not change my mind at all. We are destroying the shale players and when the stimulus hits and oil moves higher, they will not be around to stop it. S&P will see at least 1800 before this is all over.

By metmike - March 19, 2020, 12:31 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Richard!

By TimNew - March 19, 2020, 1:25 p.m.
Like Reply

I'm just amazed that Wayne was able to predict the COVID 19 virus before it even existed.

And Richard,  the shale oil producers  (frackers) are not going away.  They will not dismantle their operations even if they shut down.   It's a lot easier to reactivate infrastructure than it is to build it.  More like an on/off switch.

By metmike - March 19, 2020, 1:38 p.m.
Like Reply

Agree Tim.

I believe this particular week is the maximum in panic but thats partly because  it hard to imagine a more extreme panic situation..........maybe people will start jumping off of roofs and out of the windows of tall buildings (-:

Once the testing catches us up to the real number out there..............the worst news will be out.

The virus is not going to start killing at a higher rate or become more deadly.

The virus will end up killing just a fraction of people that are killed by the flu each year.

But people are petrified of the unknown. Fear of the worst is usually much greater than the reality that happens.

Look at how many people were killed in China:

Coronavirus Cases:











Let's use our heads people and think about that.

We have 10 times that number of people who die from the flu every year in the US.  China has 3 times our population.

China had no new cases reported today.

I will say that I don't trust numbers coming from China but clearly they have long since past the peak/worst(just like we will) and things are almost ready to get closer to normal there.  ................that is still a few weeks down the road but a month ago,  NOBODY could have imagined NOBODY that China's new cases would have plunged this fast.

By wglassfo - March 19, 2020, 1:51 p.m.
Like Reply

Yes mike

I was not sure where to post

By metmike - March 19, 2020, 1:58 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Wayne!

Appreciate you as our mostly prolific poster.