KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 19, 2020
8:30 AM ET. March Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 9.0; previous 36.7)
Prices Paid (previous 16.4)
Employment (previous 9.8)
New Orders (previous 33.6)
Prices Received (previous 17.1)
Delivery Times (previous 2.7)
Inventories (previous 11.8)
Shipments (previous 25.2)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (expected -110.0B; previous -124.09B)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 211K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1722000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -11K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1599.3K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 304.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 480.8K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. February Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.8%)
Leading Index (previous 112.1)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2043B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -48B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, March 20, 2020
10:00 AM ET. February Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 5.50M; previous 5.46M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected +0.7%; previous -1.3%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.1)
Median Price (USD) (previous 266300)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +6.8%)
10:00 AM ET. January Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
Monday, March 23, 2020
8:30 AM ET. February CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous -0.25)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.09)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Industry
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower in overnight trading but well off session lows after the European Central Bank announced that it will buy 750 billion euros' worth of securities and bonds through the end of 2020 to offset the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly chart crossing at 6796.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8233.20 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7650.63. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8233.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 6810.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly crossing at 6796.94.
The June S&P 500 was slightly lower in overnight trading but off session lows. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 2028.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2846.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2607.16. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2846.92. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2314.30. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2028.01.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 165-01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 177-02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 182-21. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 191-22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 165-01. Second support is February's low crossing at 159-18.
June T-notes were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.083 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.240 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.240. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.083. Second support is February's low crossing at 130.025.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year's decline, the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.34 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 30.39. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.34. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 20.06. Second support is the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.12.
April heating oil was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year's decline, the January 2016 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 84.87 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at 137.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 114.04. Second residential is last-Monday's gap crossing at 137.83. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 93.43. Second support is weekly support crossing at 84.87.
April unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 47.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 125.87 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 93.69. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 125.87. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 62.05. Second support is monthly support crossing at 47.80.
April Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.530 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.893 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.893. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 2.024. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.555. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.530.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the January-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 103.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 102.36. Second resistance is the January-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 103.82. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.16. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.78.
The June Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 106.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.94 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.94. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 115.45. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 108.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 106.54.
The June British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, downside targets are unknown. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2679 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2439. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2679. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1475. Second support is unknown.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, February's low crossing at 1.0240 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0599 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.0698. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0943. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0298. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.0240.
The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off December's high, the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 68.09 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 72.85 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 72.85. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.31. First support is the overnight low crossing at 68.20. Second support is the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 68.09.
The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0925 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0947 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0992. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 0.01009. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0917. Second support is February's low crossing at 0.0897.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1412.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1605.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1575.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1605.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1450.90. Second support the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1412.50.
May silver was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the October 2008 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.400 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $16.213 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving averagecrossing at $14.799. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.213. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $11.640. Second support is the October 2008 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.400.
May copper was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $193.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $248.60 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $239.54. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $248.60. First support is the overnight low crossing at $197.025 Second support is the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $193.55.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at $3.29 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.69 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.61 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.69. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $3.32. Second support is monthly support crossing at $3.29 3/4.
May wheat was higher overnight as it extended the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 4.79 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $5.34. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.95. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.79 3/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.14 1/4-cents at $4.46 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.49 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, last-September's low crossing at $4.08 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.49 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $4.65 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $4.20. Second support is last-September's low crossing at $4.08 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.21 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.21 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.39 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.03. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of this year's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, psychological support crossing at $8.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.74 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.53 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.74 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at $8.21. Second support is psychological support crossing at $8.00.
May soybean meal was sharply higher overnight and has renewed the rally off February's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the November 18th high crossing at 315.30 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $295.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $313.00. Second resistance is the November 18th high crossing at 315.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $295.60. Second support is February's low crossing at $290.70.
May soybean oil was slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at 21.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 26.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.01. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 24.68. Second support is monthly support crossing at 21.54.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.33 at $58.15.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.74 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $47.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.74. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $66.68. First support is Monday's low crossing at $52.13. Second support is weekly support crossing at $47.83.
April cattle closed down $4.25 at $92.10.
April cattle closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, long-term support crossing at $83.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $100.17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.46. First support is Monday's low crossing at $91.08. Second support is long-term support crossing at $83.41.
May Feeder cattle closed down $3.33-cents at $108.52.
May Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $102.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $129.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $121.28. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $129.29. First support is today's low crossing at $107.47. Second support is weekly support crossing at $102.55.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 9.96 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 11.28 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
May cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 22.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
May sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 9.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
May cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extended this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at 54.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.73 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
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